The 3PDh pattern of 2014-2016 appears to have failed. After a textbook, five-wave pullback (first floor roof/points 15-20) in April-June 2016, the Dow shot up in a vertical fashion fulfilling Lindsay’s description of the2nd floor wall (points 20-21). That was followed by a small cupola or head-and-shoulders top with the supposed bull market top arriving on 8/15/16. The following sell-off should have reached the bottom of the Separating Decline (February lows) at a minimum. As we all know, rather than experiencing a bear market, the Dow found a low on Election Day and the rally to new bull market highs has been named the “Trump Bump”. But appearances can be deceiving…
The minor sell-off following the August high also played out as a five wave reversal and the subsequent rally since the election is the definition of a 2nd floor wall. Since mid-December, the Dow has moved sideways which is necessary to the formation of a cupola.
The standard time spans tell us not to expect a significant high until the period April-August 2017 but it never hurts to keep one eye focused on what isn’t expected…
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