Monday started the day weak and ended about mid range still red across the broader markets. Volume came in mixed with the NYSE, ES and TF all higher than Friday and the Nasdaq along with the NQ lighter than Friday. The TRIN closed bearish at 1.55 and the VIX closed at 26.15 up $1.25. Gold closed the day up $12.20 at $959.50 and oil up 24 cents to $74.73 a barrel.
Monday delivered a good Chicago PMI number and the market did not respond, another sign we are a little tired. The range was tight on the day and that held us in last weeks range, but at the bottom of it. There was a little more weight on the market to tip the stochastics down, CCI is under 100 line and headed to 0, RSI moving lower and MACD is very flat.
Friday left a shooting star on the Semi’s, Hardware and Internet sectors, today closing lower to confirm those reversal candles. That is setup to take the wind out of the sails on the Nasdaq side of the market. The brokers offset some of the markets weakness today to close on the highs, but with a hanging man, Tuesday a lower close would setup a reversal. Banks did not take out the 8/24 highs, which could setup a slightly lower high. This is leaving each key sector and Index setting up the ground work for a possible pullback.
Futures did not test the daily or weekly pivots today. Fairly unusual to not test the daily so look for Tuesday to be active on the ES around 1018.5, NQ 1624.50 and TF 571.50. If the ES drops 1014.5 we will look down to 1000 level for a test. NQ drops Mondays 1615.75 low we look down into 1602.25. That would be a very corrective but levels as low as 972 and 1563 to still pull this horse back. This week is full of economic data but is also leading into a long weekend. Bonds close early Friday and it is likely to be very quiet after the opening. That leaves us with Tuesday-Thursday to find some volatility this week.
Economic data for the week (underlined means more likely to be a mkt mover): Tuesday 10:00 ISM Manufacturing PMI, 10:00 Pending Home Sales, 10:00 Construction Spending, 10:00 ISM Manufacturing Prices, Vehicle Sales all day, Wednesday 7:30 Challenger Job Cuts, 8:15 ADP Non Farm Employment Change, 8:30 Revised Nonfarm Productivity, 8:30 Revised Unit Labor, 10:00 Factory Orders, 10:30 Crude Oil Inventories, 11:30 FOMC Member Lockhart Speaks, 2:00 FOMC Meeting Minutes. Thursday 8:30 Unemployment Claims, 10:00 ISM Non Manufacturing PMI, 10:30 Natural Gas Storage. Friday 8:30 NonFarm Employment Change, 8:30 Unemployment Rate, 8:30 Average Hourly Earnings.
Some earnings for the week (keep in mind companies can change last minute: Tuesday pre market GIGM, TUTR and after the bell ADCT, SEAC, TTWO, PAY. Wednesday pre market JOYG, ZLC and after the bell PSS, HOV,MATK. Thursday pre market CIEN, FLOW, MOV, SCMR and after the bell COO, SNDA, ULTA, WIND. Friday pre market HRB and nothing after the bell.
ES (S&P 500 e-mini) Tuesday’s pivot 1018.50, weekly pivot 1027, monthly pivot 947. Intraday support: 1014.50 38.2%, 1011.75, 1007.25, 1004.75 fills gap. Resistance: 1023, 1027.50, 1029, 1033.25, 1038.75, 1041
