OVERNIGHT/EARLY MORNING DEVELOPMENTS
The feature in overnight trading was sharply higher metals prices, led by gold, amid a weaker U.S. dollar following dollar-bearish wording in the Fed’s FOMC announcement Thursday afternoon, in which the Fed raised interest rates by 25 basis points. Crude oil is also firmer in early electronic dealings. T-Bonds and T-Notes are lower and the U.S. stock indexes are lower in early electronic trading. Grains were solidly higher in overnight electronic trading. There was no fresh, major, market-moving fundamental news overnight.
U.S. ECONOMIC REPORTS/EVENTS
On tap today is the USDA planting intentions and supply and demand report, the quarterly USDA hogs and pigs report, personal income and spending, the University of Michigan’s consumer sentiment index and the Chicago PMI.
U.S. STOCK INDEXES
The indexes are weaker in early morning electronic trading, on just a slight pullback from strong gains Thursday. The bulls did gain some fresh upside technical momentum Thursday, following the stock-market-bullish wording in the Fed’s FOMC statement. But my bias is still that trading will remain choppier in the near term.
September S&P 500: The shorter-term moving averages (4-, 9- and 18-day) are now fully bullish. The 4-day moving average is above the 9-day. The 9-day is now above the 18-day moving average. Short-term oscillators are neutral to bearish today, as the slow stochatics is now reading overbought. Today, key shorter-term technical support comes in at 1,275.00. Light sell stops likely reside just under that level. More sell stops likely reside under shorter-term support at 1,270.00. Shorter-term upside resistance for active traders today is at Thursday’s high of 1,283.70. Buy stops are likely located just above that price level, and more buy stops are likely located just above shorter-term resistance at 1,290.00.
PIVOT POINT LEVELS FOR S&P 500:
Pivot:———— 1,274.50
1st Support:—— 1,265.35
2nd Support:—— 1,248.00
1st Resistance:— 1,291.80
2nd Resistance:— 1,301.00
September Nasdaq: The shorter-term moving averages (4- 9- and 18-day) are suddenly fully bullish. The 4-day is above the 9-day and 18-day moving averages. The 9-day moving average is now above the 18-day. Short-term oscillators are neutral to bearish today, as slow stochastics will likely move into overbought territory on a higher price move today. Today, shorter-term technical support is located at Wednesday’s low of 1,590.00. Sell stops likely reside just below that level, and then more sell stops likely reside below support at 1,578.00. On the upside, short-term resistance is seen at Thursday’s high of 1,606.50. Buy stops are likely located just above that level. Heavier buy stops are likely located just above resistance at the June high of 1,646.00.
PIVOT POINT LEVELS FOR NASDAQ:
Pivot:———— 1,589.50
1st Support:—— 1,572.50
2nd Support:—— 1,540.00
1st Resistance:— 1,622.00
2nd Resistance:— 1,639.00
September Dow: For today, sell stops likely reside just below support at 11,150 and then just below support at Thursday’s low of 11,085. Buy stops likely reside just above shorter-term technical resistance at Thursday’s high of 11,265 and then more stops just above resistance at 11,300. Shorter-term moving averages are fully bullish today, as the 4-day moving average is above the 9-day and 18-day. The 9-day is above the 18-day moving average. Shorter-term oscillators (RSI, slow stochastics) are bullish today, but slow stochastics could move into overbought territory on a higher price move today.
PIVOT POINT LEVELS FOR DOW:
Pivot:———— 11,203
1st Support:—— 11,142
2nd Support:—— 11,023
1st Resistance:— 11,322
2nd Resistance:— 11,383
U.S. TREASURY BONDS AND NOTES
Both notes and bond prices were weaker in overnight trading in Chicago. Treasuries did not get a lot of benefit from a slightly friendly Fed FOMC announcement Thursday afternoon, in which the Fed intimated that its tightening cycle is ending. Bears still have the near-term technical momentum on their side.
September U.S. T-Bonds: Shorter-term moving averages (4- 9- 18-day) are still fully bearish. The 4-day moving average is below the 9-day average and the 18-day. The 9-day is below the 18-day. Oscillators are neutral to bulllish today. Slow stochastics are well into oversold territory.
Shorter-term resistance lies at the overnight electronic high of 106 6/32 and then at Thursday’s high of 106 10/32. Buy stops likely lie just above those levels. Shorter-term technical support lies at the overnight low of 105 20/32 and then at this week’s low of 105 12/32. Sell stops likely reside just below those levels.
PIVOT POINT LEVELS FOR T-BONDS:
Pivot:———– 105 27/32
1st Support:—– 105 11/32
2nd Support:—– 104 30/32
1st Resistance:– 106 8/32
2nd Resistance:– 106 24/32
September U.S. T-Notes: Prices are weaker in early morning dealings. Oscillators are neutral to bullish today. Slow stochastics are well into oversold territory. Buy stops likely reside just above shorter-term resistance at the overnight high of 104.20.0, and then just above resistance at 105.00.0. Shorter-term moving averages are neutral to bullish. The 4-day moving average is now moving above the 9-day. The 9-day is still well below the 18-day moving average. Sell stop orders are likely located just below support at the overnight low of 104.08.5, and then heavier stops just below support at the contract low of 104.01.0.
PIVOT POINT LEVELS FOR T-NOTES:
Pivot:———— 104.11.0
1st Support:—— 104.05.0
2nd Support:—— 103.29.0
1st Resistance:— 104.19.0
2nd Resistance:— 104.25.0
