OVERNIGHT/EARLY MORNING DEVELOPMENTS
The feature in overnight trading was sharply higher metals prices, led by gold, following North Korea’s launch of a ballistic missile on Tuesday. The U.S. dollar is stronger in early dealings. Crude oil is slightly lower in early electronic dealings. T-Bonds and T-Notes are lower and the U.S. stock indexes are lower in early electronic trading. Grains were steady to weaker in overnight electronic trading.
U.S. ECONOMIC REPORTS/EVENTS
On tap today is the ICSC store sales index, Redbook retail sales, and factory orders.
U.S. STOCK INDEXES
The indexes are weaker in early morning electronic trading, on a slight pullback from the North Korea missile news. The bulls last week did gain some fresh upside technical momentum. But my bias is still that trading will remain choppier in the near term, with no strong trends developing.
September S&P 500: The shorter-term moving averages (4-, 9- and 18-day) are still fully bullish. The 4-day moving average is well above the 9-day and 18-day. The 9-day is above the 18-day moving average. Short-term oscillators are bearish today, as the slow stochatics is still reading overbought. Today, key shorter-term technical support comes in at 1,279.00. Light sell stops likely reside just under that level. More sell stops likely reside under shorter-term support at 1,275.00. Shorter-term upside resistance for active traders today is the overnight high of 1,287.40. Buy stops are likely located just above that price level, and heavier buy stops are likely located just above shorter-term resistance at Monday’s high of 1,289.50.
PIVOT POINT LEVELS FOR S&P 500:
Pivot:———— 1,286.40
1st Support:—— 1,283.30
2nd Support:—— 1,278.40
1st Resistance:— 1,291.30
2nd Resistance:— 1,294.40
September Nasdaq: The shorter-term moving averages (4- 9- and 18-day) are still fully bullish. The 4-day is above the 9-day and 18-day moving averages. The 9-day moving average is above the 18-day. Short-term oscillators are neutral to bearish today, as slow stochastics is into overbought territory. Today, shorter-term technical support is located at 1,590.00. Sell stops likely reside just below that level, and then more sell stops likely reside below support at 1,578.00. On the upside, short-term resistance is seen at last week’s high of 1,609.25. Heavier buy stops are likely located just above that level. More buy stops are then likely located just above resistance at the June high of 1,646.00.
PIVOT POINT LEVELS FOR NASDAQ:
Pivot:———— 1,599.25
1st Support:—— 1,595.00
2nd Support:—— 1,588.50
1st Resistance:— 1,605.75
2nd Resistance:— 1,610.00
September Dow: For today, light sell stops likely reside just below support at Monday’s low of 11,233 and then just below support at 11,200. Buy stops likely reside just above shorter-term technical resistance at last weeks’s high of 11,310 and then more stops just above resistance at the June high of 11,395. Shorter-term moving averages are fully bullish today, as the 4-day moving average is above the 9-day and 18-day. The 9-day is above the 18-day moving average. Shorter-term oscillators (RSI, slow stochastics) are bearish today, as slow stochastics are into overbought territory.
PIVOT POINT LEVELS FOR DOW:
Pivot:———— 11,278
1st Support:—— 11,262
2nd Support:—— 11,234
1st Resistance:— 11,306
2nd Resistance:— 11,322
U.S. TREASURY BONDS AND NOTES
Both notes and bond prices were weaker in overnight trading in Chicago. Treasuries did not get a lot of benefit overnight from any flight to quality buying after the North Korean missile news. However, that news is potentially bullish for bonds and notes and will limit selling interest today. Bears still have the near-term technical momentum on their side.
September U.S. T-Bonds: Shorter-term moving averages (4- 9- 18-day) are neutral to bullish. The 4-day moving average is now above the 9-day. The 9-day is still below the 18-day. Oscillators are neutral to bullish today. Shorter-term resistance lies at last week’s high of 106 22/32 and then at 107 even. Buy stops likely lie just above those levels. Shorter-term technical support lies at the overnight low of 106 5/32 and then at 106 even. Sell stops likely reside just below those levels.
PIVOT POINT LEVELS FOR T-BONDS:
Pivot:———– 106 16/32
1st Support:—– 106 10/32
2nd Support:—– 106 4/32
1st Resistance:– 106 22/32
2nd Resistance:– 106 28/32
September U.S. T-Notes: Prices are weaker in early morning dealings. Oscillators are neutral to bearish today. Buy stops likely reside just above shorter-term resistance at last week’s high of 104.28.5, and then just above resistance at 105.00.0. Shorter-term moving averages are neutral to bullish. The 4-day moving average is above the 9-day. The 9-day is still well below the 18-day moving average. Sell stop orders are likely located just below support at the overnight low of 104.19.0, and then more stops just below support at 104.13.0.
PIVOT POINT LEVELS FOR T-NOTES:
Pivot:———— 104.24.0
1st Support:—— 104.21.0
2nd Support:—— 104.16.0
1st Resistance:— 104.29.0
2nd Resistance:— 105.00.0
