OVERNIGHT/EARLY MORNING DEVELOPMENTS
The feature in overnight/early morning trading is solid
losses in the crude oil market, as there are rumors in the
market that Iran may be willing to negotiate with the West
on its nuclear program. The Middle East tensions are still
very high, and that will keep all traders on edge today.
However, there are ideas that Israel’s offensive in Lebanon
may be about finished, and that is also pressuring gold and
crude oil. The U.S. dollar is solidly higher versus the
other major currencies. Stock indexes are slightly lower in
early electronic trading. U.S. Treasuries are also slightly
lower. Gold is trading slightly lower in early dealings.
U.S. ECONOMIC REPORTS/EVENTS
On tap today is the New York Federal Reserve manufacturing
index and the industrial production and capacity
utilization reports. It’s a light report day today.
U.S. STOCK INDEXES
The indexes are weaker in early morning electronic trading,
following strong losses last week. Bears have fresh
downside technical momentum, amid record-high oil prices
and heightened tensions in the Middle East. Buying interest
will continue to be limited by these factors, at least in
the near term.
September S&P 500: Prices hit a fresh four-week low in
overnight trading. The shorter-term moving averages (4-, 9-
and 18-day) are fully bearish. The 4-day moving average is
below the 9-day and 18-day today. The 9-day is moving below
above the 18-day moving average. Short-term oscillators are
bullish today, as slow stochastics are well into oversold
territory. Today, key shorter-term technical support comes
in at the overnight low of 1,234.70. Sell stops likely
reside just under that level. Heavier sell stops likely
reside under solid technical support at the June low of
1,229.20. Shorter-term upside resistance for active traders
today is the overnight high of 1,243.90. Light buy stops
are likely located just above that price level, and more
buy stops are likely located just above chart resistance at
Friday’s high of 1,251.30.
PIVOT POINT LEVELS FOR S&P 500:
Pivot:———— 1,242.95
1st Support:—— 1,234.60
2nd Support:—— 1,258.95
1st Resistance:— 1,250.60
2nd Resistance:— 1,258.95
September Nasdaq: Prices overnight dipped to another fresh
contract low. The shorter-term moving averages (4- 9- and
18-day) are fully bearish. The 4-day is below the 9-day and
18-day moving averages. The 9-day moving average is below
the 18-day. Short-term oscillators are bullish today, as
slow stochastics are well into oversold territory. Today,
shorter-term technical support is located at the overnight
low of 1,465.00. Sell stops likely reside just below that
level, and then more sell stops likely reside below support
at 1,450.00. On the upside, short-term resistance is seen
at Friday’s high of 1,493.25. Buy stops are likely located
just above that level. More buy stops are then likely
located just above resistance at 1,500.00.
PIVOT POINT LEVELS FOR NASDAQ:
Pivot:———— 1,479.00
1st Support:—— 1,464.50
2nd Support:—— 1,454.25
1st Resistance:— 1,489.50
2nd Resistance:— 1,503.50
September Dow: For today, heavy sell stops likely reside
just below support at the June contract low of 10,740 and
then just below support at of 10,700. Light buy stops
likely reside just above shorter-term technical resistance
at 10,800 and then more buy stops just above resistance at
Friday’s high of 11,910. Shorter-term moving averages are
bearish today, as the 4-day moving average is below the 9-
day. The 9-day is moving below the 18-day moving average.
Shorter-term oscillators (RSI, slow stochastics) are
neutral to bearish today.
PIVOT POINT LEVELS FOR DOW:
Pivot:———— 10,815
1st Support:—— 10,719
2nd Support:—— 10,656
1st Resistance:— 10,878
2nd Resistance:— 10,974
U.S. TREASURY BONDS AND NOTES
Both notes and bond prices are slightly lower in early
trading in Chicago, on a slight pullback following good
gains last week. Technical odds are increasing that near-
term lows are in place in bonds and notes. Also, the Middle
East tensions will limit selling interest in the bonds
again today.
September U.S. T-Bonds: Shorter-term moving averages (4- 9-
18-day) are fully bullish again today. The 4-day moving
average is above the 9-day. The 9-day is now above the 18-
day moving average. Oscillators are neutral today. Shorter-
term resistance lies at the overnight high of 107 19/32.
Buy stops likely lie just above that level. Heavier buy
stops likely reside just above solid technical resistance
Friday’s high of at 107 26/32. Shorter-term technical
support lies at Friday’s low of 107 7/32. Sell stops likely
reside just below that level. More sell stops are likely
located below support at 107 even.
PIVOT POINT LEVELS FOR T-BONDS:
Pivot:———– 107 16/32
1st Support:—– 107 6/32
2nd Support:—– 106 29/32
1st Resistance:– 107 25/32
2nd Resistance:– 108 3/32
September U.S. T-Notes: Shorter-term oscillators are
bearish today. Heavier buy stops likely reside just above
shorter-term resistance at Friday’s high of 105.16.5, and
then just above resistance at 105.20.0. Shorter-term moving
averages are fully bullish today. The 4-day moving average
is above the 9-day, and is above the 18-day. The 9-day is
now above the 18-day moving average. Sell stop orders are
likely located just below support at Friday’s low of
105.07.0, and then more sell stops just below support at
105.00.0.
PIVOT POINT LEVELS FOR T-NOTES:
Pivot:———— 105.12.0
1st Support:—— 105.07.0
2nd Support:—— 105.02.0
1st Resistance:— 105.17.0
2nd Resistance:— 105.22.0
