OVERNIGHT/EARLY MORNING DEVELOPMENTS
The feature in overnight/early morning trading is lower gold and crude oil prices. The U.S. dollar is slightly higher versus the other major currencies. Stock indexes are modestly lower in early electronic trading. U.S. Treasuries are also slightly lower.
U.S. ECONOMIC REPORTS/EVENTS
On tap today is the MBA refinancing index, the Consumer Price Index report and DOE energy stocks data. Kansas City Fed president Hoenig speaks today. But the most important event of the day is Fed chairman Bernanke’s testimony before the Senate today.
U.S. STOCK INDEXES
The indexes are weaker in early morning electronic trading. Bears still have some downside technical momentum, amid higher oil prices and tensions in the Middle East. Buying interest will continue to be limited by these factors, at least in the near term.
September S&P 500: The shorter-term moving averages (4-, 9- and 18-day) are still fully bearish. The 4-day moving average is below the 9-day and 18-day today. The 9-day is moving below above the 18-day moving average. Short-term oscillators are neutral to bullish today. Today, key shorter-term technical support comes in at 1,240.00. Sell stops likely reside just under that level. Heavier sell stops likely reside under solid technical support at the June low of 1,229.20. Shorter-term upside resistance for active traders today is at 1,250.00. Light buy stops are likely located just above that price level, and more buy stops are likely located just above chart resistance at Friday’s high of 1,258.00.
PIVOT POINT LEVELS FOR S&P 500:
Pivot:———— 1,241.15
1st Support:—— 1,235.55
2nd Support:—— 1,225.45
1st Resistance:— 1,251.25
2nd Resistance:— 1,256.85
September Nasdaq: The shorter-term moving averages (4- 9- and 18-day) are still fully bearish. The 4-day is below the 9-day and 18-day moving averages. The 9-day moving average is below the 18-day. Short-term oscillators are neutral today, but slow stochastics are still into oversold territory. Today, shorter-term technical support is located at Tuesday’s contract low of 1,458.00. Sell stops likely reside just below that level, and then more sell stops likely reside below support at 1,450.00. On the upside, short-term resistance is seen at Tuesday’s high of 1,489.00. Buy stops are likely located just above that level. More buy stops are then likely located just above resistance at 1,500.00.
PIVOT POINT LEVELS FOR NASDAQ:
Pivot:———— 1,477.90
1st Support:—— 1,466.85
2nd Support:—— 1,446.90
1st Resistance:— 1,497.85
2nd Resistance:— 1,508.90
September Dow: For today, heavier sell stops likely reside just below support at Tuesday’s contract low of 10,730 and then more stops just below support at of 10,700. Light buy stops likely reside just above shorter-term technical resistance at 10,910 and then more buy stops just above resistance at 11,000. Shorter-term moving averages are still fully bearish today, as the 4-day moving average is below the 9-day. The 9-day is moving below the 18-day moving average. Shorter-term oscillators (RSI, slow stochastics) are bullish today.
PIVOT POINT LEVELS FOR DOW:
Pivot:———— 10,821
1st Support:—— 10,775
2nd Support:—— 10,683
1st Resistance:— 10,913
2nd Resistance:— 10,959
U.S. TREASURY BONDS AND NOTES
Both notes and bond prices are slightly lower in early trading in Chicago. Today’s price action will be extra important. Follow-through selling today, from Tuesday’s losses, would be significantly bearish to suggest a retest of the recent contract lows. Stronger closes today will revive the bulls.
September U.S. T-Bonds: Shorter-term moving averages (4- 9- 18-day) are turning bearish today. The 4-day moving average is poised to cross below the 9-day. The 9-day is still above the 18-day moving average. Oscillators are bearish again today. Shorter-term resistance lies at 107 even. Buy stops likely lie just above that level. More buy stops likely reside just above shorter-term technical resistance at 107 8/32. Shorter-term technical support lies at the overnight low of 106 22/32. Sell stops likely reside just below that level. More sell stops are likely located below support at 106 16/32.
PIVOT POINT LEVELS FOR T-BONDS:
Pivot:———– 107 1/32
1st Support:—– 106 16/32
2nd Support:—– 106 6/32
1st Resistance:– 107 11/32
2nd Resistance:– 107 28/32
September U.S. T-Notes: Shorter-term oscillators are bearish again today. Buy stops likely reside just above shorter-term resistance the overnight high of 104.29.0, and then more buy stops just above resistance at 105.00.0. Shorter-term moving averages are turning bearish today. The 4-day moving average is poised to move below the 9-day. The 9-day is still above the 18-day moving average. Sell stop orders are likely located just below support at the overnight low of 104.24.0, and then more sell stops just below support at 104.13.0.
PIVOT POINT LEVELS FOR T-NOTES:
Pivot:———— 105.00.0
1st Support:—— 104.21.0
2nd Support:—— 104.15.0
1st Resistance:— 105.06.0
2nd Resistance:— 105.17.0
