OVERNIGHT/EARLY MORNING DEVELOPMENTS
There was no major feature in overnight/early morning trading. Gold is trading modestly lower and crude oil prices are modestly higher. The U.S. dollar is near steady versus the other major currencies. The U.S. stock indexes are lower in early trading. U.S. Treasuries are also lower. There was no fresh, major market-moving news events overnight. There is a tropical storm developing in the Caribbean that has the U.S. East Coast worried.
U.S. ECONOMIC REPORTS/EVENTS
On tap today is the Challenger layoffs survey, the ICSC store sales index, personal income and spending, Redbook retail sales, the ISM manufacturing index, construction spending, and Treasury Secretary Paulson is interviewed by CNBC today.
U.S. STOCK INDEXES
The indexes are weaker in early morning electronic trading. Bulls have been working prices up from their mid-July lows and they still have some near-term technical momentum on their side.
September S&P 500: The shorter-term moving averages (4-, 9- and 18-day) are fully bullish. The 4-day moving average is above the 9-day and the 18-day. The 9-day is above the 18-day moving average. Short-term oscillators (RSI, slow stochastics) are bearish for today. Today, key shorter-term technical support comes in at Monday’s low of 1,279.00. Sell stops likely reside just under that level. More sell stops likely reside under shorter-term technical support at 1,270.00. Shorter-term upside resistance for active traders today is at Monday’s high of 1,286.00. Buy stops are likely located just above that price level, and then heavier buy stops are likely located just above solid chart resistance at the July high of 1,289.70. Wyckoff’s Intra-day Market Rating: 7.0
PIVOT POINT LEVELS FOR S&P 500:
Pivot:———— 1,282.25
1st Support:—— 1,278.50
2nd Support:—— 1,275.25
1st Resistance:— 1,285.50
2nd Resistance:— 1,289.25
September Nasdaq: The shorter-term moving averages (4- 9- and 18-day) are turning bullish. The 4-day is above the 9-day and 18-day moving average. The 9-day moving average is moving above the 18-day. Short-term oscillators (RSI, slow stochastics) are neutral for today. Today, shorter-term technical support is located at Monday’s low of 1,509.50. Sell stops likely reside just below that level, and then more sell stops likely reside below support at 1,491.50. On the upside, short-term resistance is seen at Monday’s high of 1,526.50. Buy stops are likely located just above that level. More buy stops are then likely located just above resistance at 1,537.00. Wyckoff’s Intra-Day Market Rating: 6.0
PIVOT POINT LEVELS FOR NASDAQ:
Pivot:———— 1,518.25
1st Support:—— 1,510.00
2nd Support:—— 1,501.25
1st Resistance:— 1,527.00
2nd Resistance:— 1,535.25
September Dow: For today, sell stops likely reside just below support at 11,200 and then more stops just below support at 11,156. Buy stops likely reside just above shorter-term technical resistance at Monday’s high of 11,248 and then more buy stops just above resistance at last week’s high of 11,280. Shorter-term moving averages fully bullish today, with the 4-day moving average above the 9-day and the 18-day today. The 9-day is moving average is above the 18-day moving average. Shorter-term oscillators (RSI, slow stochastics) are bearish for today. Wyckoff’s Intra-Day Market Rating: 7.0
PIVOT POINT LEVELS FOR DOW:
Pivot:———— 11,229
1st Support:—— 11,209
2nd Support:—— 11,189
1st Resistance:— 11,249
2nd Resistance:— 11,269
U.S. TREASURY BONDS AND NOTES
Both notes and bond prices are weaker in early trading in Chicago. Bulls still have some near-term technical strength, but need to continue to show some strength early this week.
September U.S. T-Bonds: Shorter-term moving averages (4- 9- 18-day) are still bullish today. The 4-day moving average is barely above the 9-day and 18-day. The 9-day is still above the 18-day moving average. Oscillators (RSI, slow stochastics) are neutral to bearish for today. Shorter-term technical resistance lies at Monday’s and the overnight high of 108 11/32. Buy stops likely lie just above that level. More buy stops also likely reside just above shorter-term technical resistance at last week’s high of 108 15/32. Shorter-term technical support lies at Monday’s low of 108 even. Sell stops likely reside just below that level. More sell stops are likely located below support at 107 19/32. Wyckoff’s Intra-Day Market Rating: 5.5
PIVOT POINT LEVELS FOR T-BONDS:
Pivot:———– 108 6/32
1st Support:—– 108 3/32
2nd Support:—– 107 28/32
1st Resistance:– 108 13/32
2nd Resistance:– 108 16/32
September U.S. T-Notes: Shorter-term oscillators (RSI, slow stochastics) are bearish for today. Buy stops likely reside just above shorter-term technical resistance at Monday’s and the overnight high of 106.02.0, and then heavier buy stops are likely located just above solid resistance at the June high of 106.03.5. Shorter-term moving averages are still bullish today. The 4-day moving average is above the 9-day and 18-day. The 9-day is still above the 18-day moving average. Sell stop orders are likely located just below support at Monday’s low of 105.27.0, and then more sell stops just below support at 105.17.5. Wyckoff’s Intra Day Market Rating: 6.0
PIVOT POINT LEVELS FOR T-NOTES:
Pivot:———— 105.31.0
1st Support:—— 105.29.0
2nd Support:—— 105.24.0
1st Resistance:— 106.04.0
2nd Resistance:— 106.06.0
