OVERNIGHT/EARLY MORNING DEVELOPMENTS
There was no standout feature in overnight/early morning trading. Gold is trading modestly higher and crude oil prices are also modestly higher. The U.S. dollar is slightly firmer versus the other major currencies. The U.S. stock indexes are slightly higher in early trading. U.S. Treasuries are modestly higher, but did hit fresh four-month highs overnight.
U.S. ECONOMIC REPORTS/EVENTS
On tap today is the MBA refinancing index, the ADP jobs estimate and DOE liquid energy stocks data. Remember that last month the ADP jobs estimate moved the financial markets, only to be well off the mark when the actual non-farm jobs number was issued. Now, traders won’t pay much attention to the ADP estimate.
U.S. STOCK INDEXES
The indexes are firmer in early morning electronic trading. Bulls have been working prices up from their mid-July lows and they still have some near-term technical momentum on their side.
September S&P 500: The shorter-term moving averages (4-, 9- and 18-day) are still fully bullish. The 4-day moving average is above the 9-day and the 18-day. The 9-day is above the 18-day moving average. Short-term oscillators (RSI, slow stochastics) are bullish for today. Today, key shorter-term technical support comes in at Tuesday’s low of 1,270.20. Sell stops likely reside just under that level. More sell stops likely reside under shorter-term technical support at 1,260.00. Shorter-term upside resistance for active traders today is at Tuesday’s high of 1,282.80. Buy stops are likely located just above that price level, and then more buy stops are likely located just above chart resistance at this week’s high of 1,286.00. Wyckoff’s Intra-day Market Rating: 6.5
PIVOT POINT LEVELS FOR S&P 500:
Pivot:———— 1,276.50
1st Support:—— 1,270.33
2nd Support:—— 1,264.00
1st Resistance:— 1,283.00
2nd Resistance:— 1,289.25
September Nasdaq: The shorter-term moving averages (4- 9- and 18-day) are still turning bullish. The 4-day is above the 9-day and 18-day moving average. The 9-day moving average is moving above the 18-day. Short-term oscillators (RSI, slow stochastics) are bullish for today. Today, shorter-term technical support is located at Tuesday’s low of 1,483.50. Sell stops likely reside just below that level, and then more sell stops likely reside below support at 1,475.00. On the upside, short-term resistance is seen at 1,500.00. Buy stops are likely located just above that level. More buy stops are then likely located just above resistance at Tuesday’s high of 1,517.25. Wyckoff’s Intra-Day Market Rating: 5.0
PIVOT POINT LEVELS FOR NASDAQ:
Pivot:———— 1,498.25
1st Support:—— 1,479.00
2nd Support:—— 1,464.50
1st Resistance:— 1,512.75
2nd Resistance:— 1,532.00
September Dow: For today, sell stops likely reside just below support at Tuesday’s low of 11,110 and then more stops just below support at 10,050. Buy stops likely reside just above shorter-term technical resistance at Tuesday’s high of 11,235 and then heavier buy stops just above resistance at last week’s high of 11,280. Shorter-term moving averages fully bullish today, with the 4-day moving average above the 9-day and the 18-day today. The 9-day is moving average is above the 18-day moving average. Shorter-term oscillators (RSI, slow stochastics) are again bearish for today. Wyckoff’s Intra-Day Market Rating: 6.0
PIVOT POINT LEVELS FOR DOW:
Pivot:———— 11,170
1st Support:—— 11,104
2nd Support:—— 11,045
1st Resistance:— 11,229
2nd Resistance:— 11,295
U.S. TREASURY BONDS AND NOTES
Both notes and bond prices are higher in early trading in Chicago. Prices have pushed to fresh nearly four-month highs today, and closes today near the session highs would provide the bulls with solid upside near-term technical momentum.
September U.S. T-Bonds: Shorter-term moving averages (4- 9- 18-day) are fully bullish today. The 4-day moving average is above the 9-day and 18-day. The 9-day is still above the 18-day moving average. Oscillators (RSI, slow stochastics) are neutral for today. Shorter-term technical resistance lies at the overnight high of 108 21/32. Heavier buy stops likely lie just above that level. More buy stops also likely reside just above technical resistance at 109 even. Shorter-term technical support lies at the overnight low of 108 10/32. Sell stops likely reside just below that level. More sell stops are likely located below support at 108 even. Wyckoff’s Intra-Day Market Rating: 8.0
PIVOT POINT LEVELS FOR T-BONDS:
Pivot:———– 108 6/32
1st Support:—– 108 1/32
2nd Support:—– 107 23/32
1st Resistance:– 108 16/32
2nd Resistance:– 108 21/32
September U.S. T-Notes: Shorter-term oscillators (RSI, slow stochastics) are neutral for today. Heavier buy stops likely reside just above shorter-term technical resistance at the overnight high of 106.06.5, and then more buy stops are likely located just above resistance at 106.16.0. Shorter-term moving averages are still fully bullish today. The 4-day moving average is above the 9-day and 18-day. The 9-day is still above the 18-day moving average. Sell stop orders are likely located just below support at 106.00.0, and then more sell stops just below support at Tuesday’s low of 105.25.5. Wyckoff’s Intra Day Market Rating: 8.0
PIVOT POINT LEVELS FOR T-NOTES:
Pivot:———— 106.00.0
1st Support:—— 105.29.0
2nd Support:—— 105.23.0
1st Resistance:— 106.06.0
2nd Resistance:— 106.09.0
