OVERNIGHT/EARLY MORNING DEVELOPMENTS
The feature in overnight/early morning trading is modestly lower stock index prices and firmer U.S. Treasury bonds. U.K. officials have foiled a major terrorist plot to blow up airliners in the sky. That has traders unnerved today.
U.S. ECONOMIC REPORTS/EVENTS
On tap today is weekly jobless claims, the U.S. trade deficit data, the federal budget statement and weekly DOE natural gas stocks data.
U.S. STOCK INDEXES
The indexes are lower in early morning electronic trading. Traders are in a selling mood today due to the nervousness regarding the uncovered terrorist plot. We are now in the “dog days” of August, which likely means lackluster trading until the end of the month.
September S&P 500: The shorter-term moving averages (4-, 9- and 18-day) are turning bearish. The 4-day moving average has moved below the 9-day to produce a bearish signal. The 9-day is still above the 18-day moving average, but is turning down. Short-term oscillators (RSI, slow stochastics) are bearish for today. Today, key shorter-term technical support comes in at the overnight low of 1,262.70. Sell stops likely reside just under that level. More sell stops likely reside under shorter-term technical support at 1,255.00. Shorter-term upside resistance for active traders today is located at the overnight high of 1,273.00. Buy stops are likely located just above that price level, and then heavier buy stops are likely located just above chart resistance at 1,280.00. Wyckoff’s Intra-day Market Rating: 4.0
PIVOT POINT LEVELS FOR S&P 500:
Pivot:———— 1,276.00
1st Support:—— 1,264.00
2nd Support:—— 1,256.50
1st Resistance:— 1,283.50
2nd Resistance:— 1,295.50
September Nasdaq: The shorter-term moving averages (4- 9- and 18-day) are turning bearish. The 4-day is below the 9-day and 18-day moving average. The 9-day moving average is still above the 18-day, but is turning down. Short-term oscillators (RSI, slow stochastics) are bearish for today. Today, shorter-term technical support is located at the overnight low of 1,484.25. Sell stops likely reside just below that level, and then heavy sell stops likely reside below support at the contract low of 1,458.00. On the upside, short-term resistance is seen at the overnight high of 1,495.25. Buy stops are likely located just above that level. More buy stops are then likely located just above resistance at 1,500.00. Wyckoff’s Intra-Day Market Rating: 4.0
PIVOT POINT LEVELS FOR NASDAQ:
Pivot:———— 1,502.75
1st Support:—— 1,480.25
2nd Support:—— 1,465.75
1st Resistance:— 1,517.25
2nd Resistance:— 1,539.75
September Dow: For today, sell stops likely reside just below support at Wednesday’s low of 11,090 and then more stops just below support at 11,100. Buy stops likely reside just above shorter-term technical resistance at 11,200 and then more buy stops just above resistance at Wednesday’s high of 11,275. Shorter-term moving averages are turning bearish today, as the 4-day moving average have moved below the 18-day. The 9-day is moving average is above the 18-day moving average, but is turning down. Shorter-term oscillators (RSI, slow stochastics) are bearish for today. Wyckoff’s Intra-Day Market Rating: 4.0
PIVOT POINT LEVELS FOR DOW:
Pivot:———— 11,160
1st Support:—— 11,046
2nd Support:—— 10,975
1st Resistance:— 11,231
2nd Resistance:— 11,345
U.S. TREASURY BONDS AND NOTES
Both notes and bond prices are trading firmer in early trading in Chicago, supported by a mild flight to quality after the foiled terrorist plot.
September U.S. T-Bonds: Shorter-term moving averages (4- 9- 18-day) are still bullish today. The 4-day moving average is above the 9-day and 18-day. The 9-day is still above the 18-day moving average. Oscillators (RSI, slow stochastics) are neutral for today. Shorter-term technical resistance lies at the overnight high and Wednesday’s high of 108 31/32. Buy stops likely lie just above that level. More buy stops likely reside just above technical resistance at 109 8/32. Shorter-term technical support lies at Wednesday’s low of 108 15/32. Sell stops likely reside just below that level. More sell stops are likely located below support at 108 9/32. Wyckoff’s Intra-Day Market Rating: 6.0
PIVOT POINT LEVELS FOR T-BONDS:
Pivot:———– 108 24/32
1st Support:—– 108 16/32
2nd Support:—– 108 8/32
1st Resistance:– 109 even
2nd Resistance:– 109 8/32
September U.S. T-Notes: Shorter-term oscillators (RSI, slow stochastics) are neutral for today. Buy stops likely reside just above shorter-term technical resistance at the overnight high of 106.16.5, and more buy stops are likely located just above resistance at this week’s high of 106.20.0. Shorter-term moving averages are still fully bullish today. The 4-day moving average is above the 9-day and 18-day. The 9-day is still above the 18-day moving average. Sell stop orders are likely located just below support at Wedneday’s low of 106.06.0, and then more sell stops just below support at 106.00.0. Wyckoff’s Intra Day Market Rating: 6.0
PIVOT POINT LEVELS FOR T-NOTES:
Pivot:———— 106.11.0
1st Support:—— 106.07.0
2nd Support:—— 106.02.0
1st Resistance:— 106.16.0
2nd Resistance:— 106.20.0
