OVERNIGHT/EARLY MORNING DEVELOPMENTS
There is no real feature in overnight/early morning trading. Crude oil is near steady. Gold is trading firmer. U.S. stock indexes are slightly higher and Treasuries are weaker in early trading. The U.S. dollar is weaker early.
U.S. ECONOMIC REPORTS/EVENTS
On tap for today is the ICSC store sales index, Redbook retail sales, the Conference Board’s consumer confidence index and FOMC minutes. Dallas Fed president Fisher speaks today. The important data today will be the FOMC minutes. But the big report this week is Friday’s U.S. jobs report.
U.S. STOCK INDEXES
The stock indexes are slightly higher in early morning electronic trading. Bulls Monday regained some near-term technical momentum.
September S&P 500: The shorter-term moving averages (4-, 9- and 18-day) are neutral today. The 4-day moving average is below the 9-day moving average. The 9-day is still above the 18-day moving average. Short-term oscillators (RSI, slow stochastics) are neutral to bullish for today. Today, key shorter-term technical support comes in at 1,300.00. Sell stops likely reside just under that level. More sell stops likely reside under shorter-term technical support at Monday’s low of 1,294.70. Solid upside resistance for active traders today is located at Monday’s high of 1,307.50. Heavier buy stops are likely located just above that price level, and then more buy stops are likely located just above chart resistance at 1,312.00. Wyckoff’s Intra-day Market Rating: 7.0
PIVOT POINT LEVELS FOR S&P 500:
Pivot:———— 1,302.00
1st Support:—— 1,296.50
2nd Support:—— 1,289.25
1st Resistance:— 1,309.25
2nd Resistance:— 1,314.75
September Nasdaq: The shorter-term moving averages (4- 9- and 18-day) are neutral today. The 4-day moving average is below the 9-day moving average. The 9-day moving average is still above the 18-day. Short-term oscillators (RSI, slow stochastics) are neutral for today. Today, shorter-term technical support is located at Monday’s low of 1,556.25. Sell stops likely reside just below that level, and then more sell stops likely reside below support at last week’s low of 1,546.50. On the upside, short-term resistance is seen at Monday’s high of 1,580.00. Buy stops are likely located just above that level. Heavier buy stops are likely located just above resistance at the August high of 1,591.50. Wyckoff’s Intra-Day Market Rating: 6.0
PIVOT POINT LEVELS FOR NASDAQ:
Pivot:———— 1,569.00
1st Support:—— 1,557.75
2nd Support:—— 1,545.25
1st Resistance:— 1,581.50
2nd Resistance:— 1,592.75
September Dow: For today, sell stops likely reside just below support at Monday’s low of 11,295 and then more stops just below support at 11,250. Heavier buy stops likely reside just above solid shorter-term technical resistance at the August high of 11,415 and then more buy stops just above resistance at 11,450. Shorter-term moving averages are neutral today, as the 4-day moving average is below the 9-day. The 9-day moving average is above the 18-day moving average. Shorter-term oscillators (RSI, slow stochastics) are bullish for today. Wyckoff’s Intra-Day Market Rating: 7.0
PIVOT POINT LEVELS FOR DOW:
Pivot:———— 11,356
1st Support:—— 11,302
2nd Support:—— 11,241
1st Resistance:— 11,417
2nd Resistance:— 11,471
U.S. TREASURY BONDS AND NOTES
Both notes and bond prices are weaker in early trading in Chicago. The bulls still have near-term technical momentum and are still looking for more on the upside in the near term. However, some profit-taking pressure would not be surprising today, ahead of this afternoon’s FOMC minutes report.
September U.S. T-Bonds: Shorter-term moving averages (4- 9- 18-day) are fully bullish today. The 4-day moving average is above the 9-day. The 9-day is above the 18-day moving average. Oscillators (RSI, slow stochastics) are bearish for today. Shorter-term technical resistance lies at Monday’s and last week’s high of 110 7/32. Buy stops likely lie just above that level. More buy stops likely reside just above technical resistance at 110 16/32. Shorter-term technical support lies at Monday’s low of 109 28/32. Sell stops likely reside just below that level. More sell stops are likely located below support at 109 16/32. Wyckoff’s Intra-Day Market Rating: 6.0
PIVOT POINT LEVELS FOR T-BONDS:
Pivot:———– 110 2/32
1st Support:—– 109 29/32
2nd Support:—– 109 23/32
1st Resistance:– 110 8/32
2nd Resistance:– 110 13/32
September U.S. T-Notes: Shorter-term oscillators (RSI, slow stochastics) are bearish for today. Buy stops likely reside just above shorter-term technical resistance at last week’s high of 107.03.0, and more buy stops are likely located just above resistance at 107.08.0. Shorter-term moving averages are turning bearish today. The 4-day moving average is above the 9-day, but is turning down. The 9-day is above the 18-day moving average. Sell stop orders are likely located just below support at 106.23.0, and then more sell stops just below support at 106.19.0. Wyckoff’s Intra Day Market Rating: 5.0
PIVOT POINT LEVELS FOR T-NOTES:
Pivot:———— 106.31.0
1st Support:—— 106.26.0
2nd Support:—— 106.23.0
1st Resistance:— 107.02.0
2nd Resistance:— 107.07.0
