September 20–Jim Wyckoff’s Early Morning Web Log
OVERNIGHT/EARLY MORNING DEVELOPMENTS
The feature in overnight/early morning trading today is solidly lower crude oil prices. Gold is also lower. Stock indexes are firmer and Treasuries are weaker early. The U.S. dollar is steady early today.
U.S. ECONOMIC REPORTS/EVENTS
On tap for today is the MBA refinancing index, DOE liquid energy stocks weekly data, and the Fed’s FOMC meeting is today, in which the Fed is not expected to raise U.S. interest rates.
U.S. STOCK INDEXES
The stock indexes are firmer in early morning electronic trading. Bulls still have some near-term technical momentum on their side.
December S&P 500: The shorter-term moving averages (4-, 9- and 18-day) are still bullish today. The 4-day moving average is above the 9-day and is above the 18-day moving average. The 9-day is above the 18-day moving average. Short-term oscillators (RSI, slow stochastics) are neutral for today. Today, shorter-term technical support comes in at the overnight low of 1,329.70. Sell stops likely reside just under that level. More sell stops likely reside under shorter-term technical support at Tuesday’s low of 1,323.00. Upside resistance for active traders today is located at the September high of 1,336.50. Heavier buy stops are likely located just above that price level, and then more buy stops are likely located just above chart resistance at 1,340.00. Wyckoff’s Intra-day Market Rating: 6.0
PIVOT POINT LEVELS FOR DECEMBER S&P 500:
Pivot:———— 1,329.25
1st Support:—— 1,324.25
2nd Support:—— 1,318.00
1st Resistance:— 1,335.50
2nd Resistance:— 1,340.50
December Russell 2000: The shorter-term moving averages (4- 9-and 18-day) are bullish today. The 4-day moving average is above the 9-day today and is above the 18-day moving average. The 9-day moving average is above the 18-day. Short-term oscillators (RSI, slow stochastics) are bearish early today. Today, shorter-term technical support is located at 725.00. Sell stops likely reside just below that level, and then more sell stops are likely located just below technical support at Tuesday’s low of 720.50. On the upside, short-term resistance is seen at Tuesday’s high of 737.25. Buy stops are likely located just above that level. More buy stops are likely located just above resistance at the July high of 742.30. Wyckoff’s Intra-Day Market Rating: 5.0
PIVOT POINT LEVELS FOR DECEMBER RUSSELL 2000:
Pivot:———— 730.00
1st Support:—— 722.50
2nd Support:—— 713.25
1st Resistance:— 739.25
2nd Resistance:— 746.50
December Dow: For today, sell stops likely reside just below support at 11,600 and then more stops just below support at Tuesday’s low of 11,565. Buy stops likely reside just above shorter-term technical resistance at Tuesday’s high of 11,660 and then more buy stops just above resistance at last week’s high of 11,704. Shorter-term moving averages are bullish today, as the 4-day moving average is above the 9-day and is above the 18-day. The 9-day moving average is above the 18-day moving average. Shorter-term oscillators (RSI, slow stochastics) are bearish for today. Wyckoff’s Intra-Day Market Rating: 6.0
PIVOT POINT LEVELS FOR DECEMBER DOW:
Pivot:———— 11,617
1st Support:—— 11,573
2nd Support:—— 11,522
1st Resistance:— 11,668
2nd Resistance:— 11,712
U.S. TREASURY BONDS AND NOTES
Prices are steady to slightly weaker in early trading in Chicago. Bulls do have fresh near-term technical momentum after strong gains Tuesday.
December U.S. T-Bonds: Shorter-term moving averages (4- 9- 18-day) are bullish today. The 4-day moving average is above the 9-day and is above the 18-day. The 9-day is above the 18-day moving average. Oscillators (RSI, slow stochastics) are neutral to bullish for today. Shorter-term technical resistance lies at the September high of 111 8/32. Heavier buy stops likely reside just above that level. More buy stops likely reside just above technical resistance at 111 16/32. Shorter-term technical support lies at the overnight low of 111 even. Sell stops likely reside just below that level. More sell stops are likely located below support at 110 24/32. Wyckoff’s Intra-Day Market Rating: 7.0
PIVOT POINT LEVELS FOR DECEMBER T-BONDS:
Pivot:———– 110 26/32
1st Support:—– 110 14/32
2nd Support:—– 109 23/32
1st Resistance:– 111 17/32
2nd Resistance:– 111 29/32
December U.S. T-Notes: Shorter-term oscillators (RSI, slow stochastics) are neutral for today. Heavier buy stops likely reside just above shorter-term technical resistance at the September high of 107.16.0, and more buy stops are likely located just above resistance at 107.24.0. Shorter-term moving averages are bullish for today. The 4-day moving average is above the 9-day and the 18-day. The 9-day is above the 18-day moving average. Sell stop orders are likely located just below support at 107.08.8, and then more sell stops just below support at 107.00.0. Wyckoff’s Intra Day Market Rating: 7.0
PIVOT POINT LEVELS FOR DECEMBER T-NOTES:
Pivot:———— 107.06.0
1st Support:—— 106.30.0
2nd Support:—— 106.15.0
1st Resistance:— 107.21.0
2nd Resistance:— 107.29.0
