September 27–Jim Wyckoff’s Early Morning Web Log
OVERNIGHT/EARLY MORNING DEVELOPMENTS
The real feature in overnight/early morning trading today is firmer stock and bond prices. Crude oil and gold are also higher. The U.S. dollar is slightly higher early today.
U.S. ECONOMIC REPORTS/EVENTS
On tap for today is the MBA refinancing index, durable goods orders, new home sales, weekly DOE liquid energy stocks data, and the Chicago Fed midwest manufacturing index. Fed governor Krozny speaks in New York today and Kansas City Fed president Hoenig speaks in Nebraska.
U.S. STOCK INDEXES
The stock indexes are firmer in early morning electronic trading, following good gains Tuesday. Bulls have near-term technical momentum on their side.
December S&P 500: Prices poked to a fresh 4.5-month high overnight. The shorter-term moving averages (4-, 9- and 18-day) are bullish today. The 4-day moving average is above the 9-day and 18-day. The 9-day is above the 18-day moving average. Short-term oscillators (RSI, slow stochastics) are bullish for today. Today, shorter-term technical support comes in at 1,340.00. Sell stops likely reside just under that level. More sell stops likely reside under shorter-term technical support at Tuesday’s low of 1,333.50. Upside resistance for active traders today is located at the overnight high of 1,348.40. Buy stops are likely located just above that price level, and then more buy stops are likely located just above chart resistance at the contract high of 1,352.00. Wyckoff’s Intra-day Market Rating: 8.0
PIVOT POINT LEVELS FOR DECEMBER S&P 500:
Pivot:———— 1,342.50
1st Support:—— 1,337.75
2nd Support:—— 1,328.85
1st Resistance:— 1,351.40
2nd Resistance:— 1,356.00
December Russell 2000: The shorter-term moving averages (4- 9-and 18-day) are neutral today. The 4-day moving average is below the 9-day. The 9-day moving average is above the 18-day. Short-term oscillators (RSI, slow stochastics) are bullish early today. Today, shorter-term technical support is located at Tuesday’s low of 731.25. Sell stops likely reside just below that level, and then more sell stops are likely located just below technical support at 725.00. On the upside, short-term resistance is seen at the overnight high of 739.00. Buy stops are likely located just above that level. More buy stops are likely located just above resistance at the September high of 747.20. Wyckoff’s Intra-Day Market Rating: 6.0
PIVOT POINT LEVELS FOR DECEMBER RUSSELL 2000:
Pivot:———— 734.65
1st Support:—— 731.50
2nd Support:—— 728.15
1st Resistance:— 738.00
2nd Resistance:— 741.15
December Dow: For today, sell stops likely reside just below support at 11,700 and then more stops just below support at Tuesday’s low of 11,640. Buy stops likely reside just above shorter-term technical resistance at 11,800 and then more buy stops just above resistance at the contract high of 11,830. Shorter-term moving averages are bullish, as the 4-day moving average is above the 9-day and 18-day. The 9-day moving average is above the 18-day moving average. Shorter-term oscillators (RSI, slow stochastics) are bullish for today. Wyckoff’s Intra-Day Market Rating: 8.0
PIVOT POINT LEVELS FOR DECEMBER DOW:
Pivot:———— 11,714
1st Support:—— 11,674
2nd Support:—— 11,601
1st Resistance:— 11,787
2nd Resistance:— 11,827
U.S. TREASURY BONDS AND NOTES
Prices are slightly higher in early trading in Chicago. Bulls still have near-term technical momentum.
December U.S. T-Bonds: Shorter-term moving averages (4- 9- 18-day) are bullish today. The 4-day moving average is above the 9-day and is above the 18-day. The 9-day is above the 18-day moving average. Oscillators (RSI, slow stochastics) are bearish for today. Shorter-term technical resistance lies at 113 even. Buy stops likely reside just above that level. More buy stops likely reside just above technical resistance at this week’s high of 113 11/32. Shorter-term technical support lies at Tuesday’s low of 112 22/32. Sell stops likely reside just below that level. More sell stops are likely located below support at this week’s low of 112 18/32. Wyckoff’s Intra-Day Market Rating: 6.0
PIVOT POINT LEVELS FOR DECEMBER T-BONDS:
Pivot:———– 112 30/32
1st Support:—– 112 20/32
2nd Support:—– 112 11/32
1st Resistance:– 113 7/32
2nd Resistance:– 113 17/32
December U.S. T-Notes: Shorter-term oscillators (RSI, slow stochastics) are bearish for today. Buy stops likely reside just above shorter-term technical resistance at Monday’s high of 108.16.0, and more buy stops are likely located just above resistance at this week’s high of 108.24.0. Shorter-term moving averages are bullish for today. The 4-day moving average is above the 9-day and the 18-day. The 9-day is above the 18-day moving average. Sell stop orders are likely located just below support at the overnight low of 108.09.0, and then more sell stops just below support at 108.00.0. Wyckoff’s Intra Day Market Rating: 6.0
PIVOT POINT LEVELS FOR DECEMBER T-NOTES:
Pivot:———— 108.15.0
1st Support:—— 108.08.0
2nd Support:—— 108.02.0
1st Resistance:— 108.21.0
2nd Resistance:— 108.28.0
