September 28–Jim Wyckoff’s Early Morning Web Log
OVERNIGHT/EARLY MORNING DEVELOPMENTS
There is no real feature in overnight/early morning trading today. Stock indexes are firmer and bond prices are weaker. Crude oil and gold are firmer. The U.S. dollar is near unchanged in early traing.
U.S. ECONOMIC REPORTS/EVENTS
On tap for today is the GDP report, weekly jobless claims, the Conference Board’s help-wanted index, the Kansas City Fed manufacturing index, and the weekly DOE natural gas report. Also today, Boston Fed president Minehan speaks, as does Philadelphia Fed president Plosser.
U.S. STOCK INDEXES
The stock indexes are firmer in early morning electronic trading. Bulls still have near-term technical momentum on their side.
December S&P 500: The shorter-term moving averages (4-, 9- and 18-day) are bullish today. The 4-day moving average is above the 9-day and 18-day. The 9-day is above the 18-day moving average. Short-term oscillators (RSI, slow stochastics) are neutral to bullish for today. Today, shorter-term technical support comes in at Wednesday’s low of 1,343.20. Sell stops likely reside just under that level. More sell stops likely reside under shorter-term technical support at 1,340.00. Upside resistance for active traders today is located at Wednesday’s high of 1,350.20. Buy stops are likely located just above that price level, and then more buy stops are likely located just above chart resistance at the contract high of 1,352.00. Wyckoff’s Intra-day Market Rating: 7.0
PIVOT POINT LEVELS FOR DECEMBER S&P 500:
Pivot:———— 1,347.00
1st Support:—— 1,343.90
2nd Support:—— 1,340.00
1st Resistance:— 1,350.90
2nd Resistance:— 1,354.00
December Russell 2000: The shorter-term moving averages (4- 9-and 18-day) are neutral today. The 4-day moving average is below the 9-day. The 9-day moving average is above the 18-day. Short-term oscillators (RSI, slow stochastics) are bullish early today. Today, shorter-term technical support is located at Wednesday’s low of 732.00. Sell stops likely reside just below that level, and then more sell stops are likely located just below technical support at 725.00. On the upside, short-term resistance is seen at last week’s high of 747.20. Buy stops are likely located just above that level. More buy stops are likely located just above resistance at 750.00. Wyckoff’s Intra-Day Market Rating: 6.0
PIVOT POINT LEVELS FOR DECEMBER RUSSELL 2000:
Pivot:———— 737.40
1st Support:—— 734.70
2nd Support:—— 729.30
1st Resistance:— 742.80
2nd Resistance:— 745.50
December Dow: For today, sell stops likely reside just below support at Wednesday’s low of 11,724 and then more stops just below support at 11,680. Buy stops likely reside just above shorter-term technical resistance at Wednesday’s high of 11,790 and then more buy stops just above resistance at the contract high of 11,830. Shorter-term moving averages are bullish, as the 4-day moving average is above the 9-day and 18-day. The 9-day moving average is above the 18-day moving average. Shorter-term oscillators (RSI, slow stochastics) are neutral for today. Wyckoff’s Intra-Day Market Rating: 7.0
PIVOT POINT LEVELS FOR DECEMBER DOW:
Pivot:———— 11,763
1st Support:—— 11,735
2nd Support:—— 11,697
1st Resistance:— 11,801
2nd Resistance:— 11,829
U.S. TREASURY BONDS AND NOTES
Prices are slightly lower in early trading in Chicago. Bulls still have some near-term technical momentum on their side.
December U.S. T-Bonds: Shorter-term moving averages (4- 9- 18-day) are bullish today. The 4-day moving average is above the 9-day and is above the 18-day. The 9-day is above the 18-day moving average. Oscillators (RSI, slow stochastics) are bearish for today. Shorter-term technical resistance lies at 113 even. Buy stops likely reside just above that level. More buy stops likely reside just above technical resistance at this week’s high of 113 11/32. Shorter-term technical support lies at this week’s low of 112 18/32. Sell stops likely reside just below that level. More sell stops are likely located below support at 112 8/32. Wyckoff’s Intra-Day Market Rating: 5.0
PIVOT POINT LEVELS FOR DECEMBER T-BONDS:
Pivot:———– 112 27/32
1st Support:—– 112 14/32
2nd Support:—– 112 5/32
1st Resistance:– 113 4/32
2nd Resistance:– 113 17/32
December U.S. T-Notes: Shorter-term oscillators (RSI, slow stochastics) are bearish for today. Buy stops likely reside just above shorter-term technical resistance at 108.16.0, and more buy stops are likely located just above resistance at this week’s high of 108.24.0. Shorter-term moving averages are bullish for today. The 4-day moving average is above the 9-day and the 18-day. The 9-day is above the 18-day moving average. Sell stop orders are likely located just below support at Wednesday’s low of 108.08.0, and then more sell stops just below support at 108.00.0. Wyckoff’s Intra Day Market Rating: 5.0
PIVOT POINT LEVELS FOR DECEMBER T-NOTES:
Pivot:———— 108.14.0
1st Support:—— 108.04.0
2nd Support:—— 107.31.0
1st Resistance:— 108.19.0
2nd Resistance:— 108.29.0
