Stock Indexes Weaker, Bonds Firmer Early

October 2--Jim Wyckoff's Early Morning Web Log

OVERNIGHT/EARLY MORNING DEVELOPMENTS

The feature in overnight/early morning trading today is lower crude oil and gold prices. Stock indexes are weaker and bond prices are higher. The U.S. dollar is slightly higher in early trading.

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U.S. ECONOMIC REPORTS/EVENTS

On tap for today is the Challenger layoff survey, the ICSC-UBS store sales index, Redbook retail sales index and auto sales data. Kansas City Fed president Hoenig speaks today in New Mexico.

U.S. STOCK INDEXES

The stock indexes are weaker in early morning electronic trading. Bulls still have the slight near-term technical advantage.

December S&P 500: The shorter-term moving averages (4-, 9- and 18-day) are turning bearish today. The 4-day moving average is turning down. The 9-day is above the 18-day moving average. Short-term oscillators (RSI, slow stochastics) are bearish for today. Today, shorter-term technical support comes in at the overnight low of 1,337.10. Sell stops likely reside just under that level. More sell stops likely reside under shorter-term technical support at 1,333.00. Upside resistance for active traders today is located at the overnight high of 1,342.10. Buy stops are likely located just above that price level, and then more buy stops are likely located just above chart resistance at Monday's high of 1,348.60. Wyckoff's Intra-day Market Rating: 5.0

PIVOT POINT LEVELS FOR DECEMBER S&P 500:

Pivot:------------ 1,342.75 1st Support:------ 1,336.95 2nd Support:------ 1,333.50 1st Resistance:--- 1,346.25 2nd Resistance:--- 1,352.10

December Russell 2000: The shorter-term moving averages (4- 9-and 18-day) are turning bearish today. The 4-day moving average is below the 9-day and 18-day. The 9-day moving average is above the 18-day, but just barely. Short-term oscillators (RSI, slow stochastics) are neutral to bearish early today. Today, shorter-term technical support is located at Monday's low of 721.60. Sell stops likely reside just below that level, and then more sell stops are likely located just below technical support at 719.00. On the upside, short-term resistance is seen at 725.00. Buy stops are likely located just above that level. More buy stops are likely located just above resistance at Monday's high of 732.25. Wyckoff's Intra-Day Market Rating: 5.0

PIVOT POINT LEVELS FOR DECEMBER RUSSELL 2000:

Pivot:------------ 725.75 1st Support:------ 719.10 2nd Support:------ 715.00 1st Resistance:--- 729.75 2nd Resistance:--- 736.35

December Dow: For today, sell stops likely reside just below support at Monday's low of 11,720 and then more stops just below support at 11,680. Buy stops likely reside just above shorter-term technical resistance at last week's high of 11,808 and then more buy stops just above resistance at the contract high of 11,830. Shorter-term moving averages are turning bearish, as the 4-day moving average has turned down. The 9-day moving average is above the 18-day moving average. Shorter-term oscillators (RSI, slow stochastics) are bearish for today. Wyckoff's Intra-Day Market Rating: 5.0

PIVOT POINT LEVELS FOR DECEMBER DOW:

Pivot:------------ 11,750 1st Support:------ 11,705 2nd Support:------ 11,675 1st Resistance:--- 11,780 2nd Resistance:--- 11,825

U.S. TREASURY BONDS AND NOTES

Prices are firmer in early trading in Chicago. Bulls still have the near-term technical advantage.

December U.S. T-Bonds: Shorter-term moving averages (4- 9- 18-day) are turning bearish today. The 4-day moving average is below the 9-day. The 9-day is above the 18-day moving average. Oscillators (RSI, slow stochastics) are bullish for today. Shorter-term technical resistance lies at the overnight high of 112 26/32. Buy stops likely reside just above that level. More buy stops likely reside just above technical resistance at 113 even. Shorter-term technical support lies at 112 16/32. Sell stops likely reside just below that level. More sell stops are likely located below support at Monday's low of 112 4/32. Wyckoff's Intra-Day Market Rating: 6.5

PIVOT POINT LEVELS FOR DECEMBER T-BONDS:

Pivot:----------- 112 17/32 1st Support:----- 112 8/32 2nd Support:----- 111 27/32 1st Resistance:-- 112 30/32 2nd Resistance:-- 113 7/32

December U.S. T-Notes: Shorter-term oscillators (RSI, slow stochastics) are neutral for today. Buy stops likely reside just above shorter-term technical resistance at the overnight high of 108.12.0, and more buy stops are likely located just above resistance at 108.16.0. Shorter-term moving averages are turning bearish for today. The 4-day moving average is below the 9-day. The 9-day is above the 18-day moving average. Sell stop orders are likely located just below support at 108.00.0, and then more sell stops just below support at last week's low of 107.28.0. Wyckoff's Intra Day Market Rating: 6.5

PIVOT POINT LEVELS FOR DECEMBER T-NOTES:

Pivot:------------ 108.06.0 1st Support:------ 108.00.0 2nd Support:------ 107.23.0 1st Resistance:--- 108.15.0 2nd Resistance:--- 108.21.0