Crude Higher on OPEC Production Cut Talk

October 4--Jim Wyckoff's Early Morning Web Log

OVERNIGHT/EARLY MORNING DEVELOPMENTS

The feature in overnight/early morning trading today is solidly higher crude oil prices on talk that OPEC will reduce its oil output. Gold prices are also solidly higher. Stock indexes are mixed and Treasuries are weaker.

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U.S. ECONOMIC REPORTS/EVENTS

On tap for today are weekly jobless claims, chain store sales and the weekly DOE natural gas report. Chicago Fed president Moskow speaks today, as does Philadelphia Fed president Plosser and Cleveland Fed president Pianalto.

U.S. STOCK INDEXES

The stock indexes are mixed in early morning electronic trading. Bulls still have the near-term technical advantage.

December S&P 500: The shorter-term moving averages (4-, 9- and 18-day) are bullish today. The 4-day moving average is above the 9-day and 18-day. The 9-day is above the 18-day moving average. Short-term oscillators (RSI, slow stochastics) are neutral today. Today, shorter-term technical support comes in at 1,352.00. Sell stops likely reside just under that level. More sell stops likely reside under shorter-term technical support at 1,347.00. Upside resistance for active traders today is located at 1,360.00. Buy stops are likely located just above that price level, and then more buy stops are likely located just above chart resistance at 1,365.70. Wyckoff's Intra-day Market Rating: 8.0

PIVOT POINT LEVELS FOR DECEMBER S&P 500:

Pivot:------------ 1,352.35 1st Support:------ 1,345.73 2nd Support:------ 1,333.20 1st Resistance:--- 1,364.95 2nd Resistance:--- 1,371.60

December Russell 2000: The shorter-term moving averages (4- 9-and 18-day) are bearish today. The 4-day moving average is below the 9-day and 18-day. The 9-day moving average is below the 18-day, but just barely. Short-term oscillators (RSI, slow stochastics) are neutral to bullish early today. Today, shorter-term technical support is located at Tuesday's low of 735.00. Sell stops likely reside just below that level, and then more sell stops are likely located just below technical support at 730.00. On the upside, short-term resistance is seen at last week's high of 741.70. Buy stops are likely located just above that level. More buy stops are likely located just above resistance at the September high of 747.20. Wyckoff's Intra-Day Market Rating: 5.0

PIVOT POINT LEVELS FOR DECEMBER RUSSELL 2000:

Pivot:------------ 732.60 1st Support:------ 726.10 2nd Support:------ 713.50 1st Resistance:--- 745.20 2nd Resistance:--- 751.70

December Dow: For today, sell stops likely reside just below support at 11,875 and then more stops just below support at 11,823. Buy stops likely reside just above shorter-term technical resistance at Wednesday's contract high of 11,915 and then more buy stops just above resistance at 11,950. Shorter-term moving averages are bullish, as the 4-day moving average is above the 9-day and 18-day. The 9-day moving average is above the 18-day moving average. Shorter-term oscillators (RSI, slow stochastics) are neutral to bullish for today. Wyckoff's Intra-Day Market Rating: 8.5

PIVOT POINT LEVELS FOR DECEMBER DOW:

Pivot:------------ 11,862 1st Support:------ 11,810 2nd Support:------ 11,713 1st Resistance:--- 11,959 2nd Resistance:--- 12,011

U.S. TREASURY BONDS AND NOTES

Prices are weaker in early trading in Chicago, on a profit-taking pullback from good gains Wednesday. Bulls still have the near-term technical advantage.

December U.S. T-Bonds: Shorter-term moving averages (4- 9- 18-day) are bullish today. The 4-day moving average is above the 9-day. The 9-day is above the 18-day moving average. Oscillators (RSI, slow stochastics) are neutral for today. Shorter-term technical resistance lies at Wednesday's high of 113 5/32. Buy stops likely reside just above that level. Heavier buy stops likely reside just above solid technical resistance at the September high of 113 11/32. Shorter-term technical support lies at the overnight low of 112 26/32. Sell stops likely reside just below that level. More sell stops are likely located below support at Wednesday's low of 112 12/32. Wyckoff's Intra-Day Market Rating: 6.5

PIVOT POINT LEVELS FOR DECEMBER T-BONDS:

Pivot:----------- 112 27/32 1st Support:----- 112 18/32 2nd Support:----- 112 2/32 1st Resistance:-- 113 11/32 2nd Resistance:-- 113 20/32

December U.S. T-Notes: Shorter-term oscillators (RSI, slow stochastics) are neutral for today. Buy stops likely reside just above shorter-term technical resistance at Wednesday's high of 108.21.5, and heavier buy stops are likely located just above resistance at the September high 108.24.0. Shorter-term moving averages are bullish for today. The 4-day moving average is above the 9-day. The 9-day is above the 18-day moving average. Sell stop orders are likely located just below support at 108.10.0, and then more sell stops just below support at Wednesday's low of 108.03.5. Wyckoff's Intra Day Market Rating: 6.5

PIVOT POINT LEVELS FOR DECEMBER T-NOTES:

Pivot:------------ 108.15.0 1st Support:------ 108.08.0 2nd Support:------ 107.29.0 1st Resistance:--- 108.26.0 2nd Resistance:--- 109.01.0