October 12–Jim Wyckoff’s Early Morning Web Log
OVERNIGHT/EARLY MORNING DEVELOPMENTS
There is no major feature in overnight/early morning trading today. The U.S. dollar is weaker, gold prices are firmer and crude oil is weaker. U.S. stocks and Treasuries are firmer early today.
U.S. ECONOMIC REPORTS/EVENTS
On tap for today is the monthly USDA crop report, weekly jobless claims, the U.S. trade deficit, weekly energy stocks data, the Treasury budget statement and the Fed’s beige book. Fed governor Mishkin speaks in New York today.
U.S. STOCK INDEXES
The stock indexes are firmer in early morning electronic trading. Bulls still have some upside technical momentum on their side following recent gains.
December S&P 500: The shorter-term moving averages (4-, 9- and 18-day) are bullish today. The 4-day moving average is above the 9-day and 18-day. The 9-day is above the 18-day moving average. Short-term oscillators (RSI, slow stochastics) are neutral today. Today, shorter-term technical support comes in at 1,355.00. Sell stops likely reside just under that level. More sell stops likely reside under shorter-term technical support at Wednesday’s low of 1,351.70. Upside resistance for active traders today is located at the contract high of 1,363.20. Buy stops are likely located just above that price level, and then more buy stops are likely located just above chart resistance at 1,370.00. Wyckoff’s Intra-day Market Rating: 6.0
PIVOT POINT LEVELS FOR DECEMBER S&P 500:
Pivot:———— 1,357.70
1st Support:—— 1,353.10
2nd Support:—— 1,347.10
1st Resistance:— 1,363.70
2nd Resistance:— 1,368.30
December Russell 2000: The shorter-term moving averages (4- 9-and 18-day) are bullish today. The 4-day moving average is above the 9-day and 18-day. The 9-day moving average is above the 18-day. Short-term oscillators (RSI, slow stochastics) are neutral early today. Today, shorter-term technical support is located at 745.00. Sell stops likely reside just below that level, and then more sell stops are likely located just below technical support at this week’s low of 740.75. On the upside, short-term resistance is seen at Wednesday’s high of 751.50. Buy stops are likely located just above that level. More buy stops are likely located just above resistance at this week’s high of 753.50. Wyckoff’s Intra-Day Market Rating: 6.0
PIVOT POINT LEVELS FOR DECEMBER RUSSELL 2000:
Pivot:———— 746.70
1st Support:—— 741.90
2nd Support:—— 736.20
1st Resistance:— 752.40
2nd Resistance:— 757.20
December Dow: For today, sell stops likely reside just below support at 11,900 and then more stops just below support at Wednesday’s low of 11,845. Buy stops likely reside just above shorter-term technical resistance at this week’s contract high of 11,943 and then more buy stops just above resistance at 11,975. Shorter-term moving averages are bullish, as the 4-day moving average is above the 9-day and 18-day. The 9-day moving average is above the 18-day moving average. Shorter-term oscillators (RSI, slow stochastics) are neutral for today. Wyckoff’s Intra-Day Market Rating: 6.0
PIVOT POINT LEVELS FOR DECEMBER DOW:
Pivot:———— 11,900
1st Support:—— 11,864
2nd Support:—— 11,810
1st Resistance:— 11,954
2nd Resistance:— 11,990
U.S. TREASURY BONDS AND NOTES
U.S. T-Bonds and T-Notes are firmer early today. Bears still have some near-term downside technical momentum.
December U.S. T-Bonds: Shorter-term moving averages (4- 9- 18-day) are bearish today. The 4-day moving average is below the 9-day and 18-day. The 9-day is below the 18-day moving average. Oscillators (RSI, slow stochastics) are neutral to bullish for today. Shorter-term technical resistance lies at 111 even. Buy stops likely reside just above that level. More buy stops likely reside just above technical resistance at Wednesday’s high of 111 9/32. Shorter-term technical support lies at Wednesday’s low of 110 17/32. Sell stops likely reside just below that level. More sell stops are likely located below support at 110 8/32. Wyckoff’s Intra-Day Market Rating: 5.0
PIVOT POINT LEVELS FOR DECEMBER T-BONDS:
Pivot:———– 110 27/32
1st Support:—– 110 12/32
2nd Support:—– 110 3/32
1st Resistance:– 111 4/32
2nd Resistance:– 111 19/32
December U.S. T-Notes: Shorter-term oscillators (RSI, slow stochastics) are neutral to bullish for today. Buy stops likely reside just above shorter-term technical resistance at Wednesday’s high of 107.14.0, and more buy stops are likely located just above resistance at 107.19.5. Shorter-term moving averages are bearish for today. The 4-day moving average is below the 9-day and 18-day. The 9-day is below the 18-day moving average. Sell stop orders are likely located just below support at Wednesday’s low of 106.29.0, and then more sell stops just below support at 106.24.0. Wyckoff’s Intra Day Market Rating: 5.0
PIVOT POINT LEVELS FOR DECEMBER T-NOTES:
Pivot:———— 107.04.0
1st Support:—— 106.26.0
2nd Support:—— 106.19.0
1st Resistance:— 107.11.0
2nd Resistance:— 107.21.0
