12:45pm
Good Afternoon Readers. We are about even in the market today as I’m writing this and have had some mixed action with lower-than-expected new-home sales being reported. However, I don’t really attribute much of today’s action based on that economic news and outside of a few stocks like Apple (AAPL) and Amazon (AMZN), we aren’t really seeing much leadership. After yesterday’s action, I’m seeing better long setups and will add to some of those on my watch list. However, I’m still bearish short-term and will look to add more on dips.
In portfolio news, Sirius XM (SIRI) has met significant pressure after earnings, as I predicted, and I am accumulating more around $1 today. I feel this price is a favorable risk/reward for both short and long-term. When you run-up this much prior to earnings, you have to expect a sell-the-news reaction. Too many individual investors get caught up in the excitement to which expectations go from realistic to pure fantasy. When you start seeing ridiculous short-term PPS figures thrown out, that is the time to take a step back and reevaluate the risk/reward. In doing so, I was able to lock in profits over $1.10 and buy back around $1. Easy money.
In other news, GoIP Global (GOIG) has not seen a PR today however high volume this morning helped boost the stock past current levels. If you were in the chat today, you’d realize I have more than doubled my money so I prudently trimmed more shares off. Now we are settling at a new support level with significantly lower volume after the run up. I don’t buy and just hold. I actively move in and out of the stock (not entire positions) while it is volatile to lock in profits when possible. You don’t actually have a profit until you sell. If you bought when I did and held until today, you’d have doubled your money. However, if you bought when I did and sold some at the tops, bought back on the dips, only to sell some more today, you’d have more than doubled your investment. The key importance to this method is you have realized gains, not unrealized gains which are still invested and can be lost in the blink of an eye. You can make the decision for yourself on which investing method works best for you.
We’re going to test new support levels now. After a run-up like we just saw, we could be met with selling pressure as profits are locked in by investors and traders alike. If this does happen, I’ll look to buy back shares on weakness in anticipation that next week will have positive news regarding an official launch date. Another option is that we continue to move a leg-up for a few days as we did earlier this month before the volume dried up and profit takers came in sending the stock tumbling.
I anticipate the launch date to be released closer to the end of March which will provide GOIG the proper amount of time to add more customers and release a more impressive first day number of customers. This will also allow them to properly market the service rather than launching next week as some are speculating which will only lead to disappointment. Either way, I have a significant position that I’m content with riding into next week. If the service is still a few weeks out from being launched, we could see some volatile days ahead to which I will happily add. The more time between today and the launch date will give more opportunity to have one day of emotional panic selling. That is the day I will most likely add favorably priced shares.
I was also able to add more shares of Genius Products (GNPR) today at what I consider favorable prices. We are getting closer to the release of Scratch the Ultimate DJ and I expect the PPS will steadily increase leading to that release, which does not have an official date as of yet. It is anticipated to be released next quarter though and I expect with the low amount shares available, the new demand will increase leading to favorable prices to sell into. I’m being patient in buying so that even if it doesn’t increase as high as I’d like, I should be able to make all my money back at bare minimum. Now, it’s time for me to get back to the market. Thanks for reading Kudrna’s Stock Market Blog. Good luck out there.
Mike
At the time of publication, Kudrna was Long GOIG, GNPR, and SIRI but positions can change at any time.
