Friday ended with modest gains with heavier volume than the markets had on Thursday. The week closed just off the prior week for an inside week and slightly negative. The month however closed higher with modest gains after January’s red month. Overall we’ve seen December-February sit in range. The TRIN closed at 1.00 and the VIX at 19.50. Gold closed up $10.00 to $1118.50 and oil up $1.44 to $79.61 a barrel.
Monthly indicators are still pretty flat on the CCI, Stochastics, RSI on each broader market. Slightly bearish tone with the range we’ve sat in but until that breaks not much to see at this point. Weekly the CCI is back to the 0 line resistance after being negative for weeks, stochastics are still crossed up, MACD the lines are together and the RSI is pretty flat. Until last weeks highs break and the daily charts are opening up that resistance at 61.8% the market is in tug of war. Leaving last weeks inside range in need of a break to point us in a single direction. Last week just churned up and down with an end result of a lot of nothing.
Into Monday look for a break of last weeks range, bracketing the high and low. Digestive ranges allow the markets to rest and then find dynamic movement to follow. 61.8% Fibonacci resistance is right in this area as resistance with the 50dma’s on each index. The ES needs over 1107 to find any conviction for a lift into 1125, a drop under 1084 would result in a significantly deeper pullback. The NQ over 1827.75 look for 1860 and the TF 633.80 look for 648.90. NQ has to hold over 1784.50 and the TF 618.50 and 612.40 are key levels to hold over.
Economic data for the week (underlined means more likely to be a mkt mover): Monday 8:30 Core PCE Price Index, 8:30 Personal Spending, 8:30 Personal Income, 10:00 ISM Manufacturing PMI, 10:00 Construction Spending, 10:00 ISM Manufacturing Prices. Tuesday Vehicle Sales all day. Wednesday 7:30 Challenger Job Cuts, 8:15 ADP Non Farm Employment Change, 10:00 ISM Non Manufacturing PMI, 10:30 Crude Oil Inventories, 2:00 Beige Book. Thursday 8:30 Unemployment Claims, 8:30 Revised Nonfarm Productivity, 8:30 Revised Unit Labor Costs, 10:00 Pending Home Sales, 10:00 Factory Orders, 10:30 Natural Gas Storage. Friday 8:30 NonFarm Employment Change, 8:30 Unemployment Rate, 8:30 Average Hourly Earnings. 3:00 Consumer Credit.
Some earnings for the week (keep in mind companies can change last minute: Monday pre market AIG, EP, OSG, and after the bell MBI, NTRI. Tuesday pre market AZO, SPLS, UNFI and after the bell BGFV, EGLE, HOV, PDLI, PAY. Wednesday pre market BIG, BJ, COST, JOYG, and after the bell CRA, FL, NGS, PETM, SIA, VM, VOLC. Thursday pre market ARIA, ATPG, BABY, OSTK, STP, URBN, WEN and after the bell COO, DDS, BOOM, IDSY, MRVL, SMTC, SPWRA. Friday pre market SOLF and after the bell LMIA.
