Tuesday, October 28–Jim Wyckoff’s Morning Web Log
OVERNIGHT/EARLY MORNING DEVELOPMENTS
The market features again in overnight/early morning trading today are higher U.S. stock index futures prices and sharply higher grain futures prices.
* JIM’S MARKET THOUGHT OF THE DAY *
My bias is that corn and soybean futures prices have put in harvest lows and will now work sideways to higher into the end of the year. My bias is also that there is still a bit more downside left in wheat and in gold and in crude oil. However, any declines in those three markets probably won’t be as extreme as they have been in recent weeks.–Jim
U.S. STOCK INDEXES
The U.S. stock indexes are higher in early morning trading today. However, the bears still have the near-term technical advantage.
December S&P 500: The shorter-term moving averages (4-, 9- and 18-day) are bearish early today. The 4-day moving average is below the 9-day. The 9-day is below the 18-day moving average. Short-term oscillators (RSI, slow stochastics) are neutral to bullish early today. Today, shorter-term technical support comes in at 850.00 and then at 838.50. Sell stops likely reside just under those levels. Upside resistance for active traders today is located at the overnight high of 878.70 and then at Monday’s high of 893.00. Buy stops are likely located just above those levels. Wyckoff’s Intra-day Market Rating: 5.0
Today’s key near-term Fibonacci support/resistance level: 890.00.
PIVOT POINT LEVELS FOR DECEMBER S&P 500:
Pivot:————- 850.90
1st Support:——– 808.80
2nd Support:——– 782.90
1st Resistance:—– 876.80
2nd Resistance:—– 918.90
December Nasdaq Index: The shorter-term moving averages (4- 9-and 18-day) are bearish early today. The 4-day moving average is below the 9-day. The 9-day average is below the 18-day. Short-term oscillators (RSI, slow stochastics) are neutral early today. Shorter-term technical support is located at 1,175.00. Sell stops likely reside just below that level, and then more sell stops are likely located just below technical support at the overnight low of 1,154.00. On the upside, short-term resistance is seen at Monday’s high of 1,230.00 and then at 1,250.00. Buy stops are likely located just above those levels. Wyckoff’s Intra-Day Market Rating: 5.0
Today’s key near-term Fibonacci support/resistance level: 1,223.00
PIVOT POINT LEVELS FOR DECEMBER NASDAQ:
Pivot:———— 1,176.70
1st Support:—— 1,123.35
2nd Support:—— 1,084.70
1st Resistance:— 1,215.35
2nd Resistance:— 1,268.70
December Dow: Sell stops likely reside just below support at 8,200 and then more stops just below support at 8,100. Buy stops likely reside just above shorter-term technical resistance at 8,400 and then just above resistance at 8,500. Shorter-term moving averages are bearish early today, as the 4-day moving average is below the 9-day. The 9-day moving average is below the 18-day moving average. Shorter-term oscillators (RSI, slow stochastics) are neutral early today. Wyckoff’s Intra-Day Market Rating: 5.0
Today’s key near-term Fibonacci support/resistance level: 8,447
PIVOT POINT LEVELS FOR DECEMBER DOW:
Pivot:———— 8,199
1st Support:—— 7,827
2nd Support:—— 7,644
1st Resistance:— 8,382
2nd Resistance:— 8,754
U.S. TREASURY BONDS AND NOTES
U.S. T-Bonds and T-Notes futures lower early today, amid the stock market rebound overnight. Bulls are fading again.
December U.S. T-Bonds: Shorter-term moving averages (4- 9- 18-day) are neutral early today. The 4-day moving average is above the 9-day and 18-day. The 9-day is below the 18-day moving average. Oscillators (RSI, slow stochastics) are bearish early today. Shorter-term technical support lies at the overnight low of 116 even and then at 115 16/32. Sell stops likely reside just below those levels. Shorter-term technical resistance lies at 117 even and then at the overnight high of 117 18/32. Buy stops likely reside just above those levels. Wyckoff’s Intra-Day Market Rating: 4.0
Today’s key near-term Fibonacci support/resistance level: 117 5/32
PIVOT POINT LEVELS FOR DECEMBER T-BONDS:
Pivot:———– 117 18/32
1st Support:—– 116 9/32
2nd Support:—– 115 19/32
1st Resistance:– 118 8/32
2nd Resistance:– 119 17/32
December U.S. T-Notes: Shorter-term oscillators (RSI, slow stochastics) are bearish early today. Buy stops likely reside just above shorter-term technical resistance at 114.24.0 and then at 115.00.0. Shorter-term moving averages are neutral early today. The 4-day moving average is above the 9-day and 18-day. The 9-day is below the 18-day moving average. Sell stop orders are likely located just below support at 114.00.0 and then at 113.24.0. Wyckoff’s Intra Day Market Rating: 4.0
Today’s key near-term Fibonacci support/resistance level: 114.19.0
PIVOT POINT LEVELS FOR DECEMBER T-NOTES:
Pivot:———– 115 5/32
1st Support:—– 114 11/32
2nd Support:—– 113 30/32
1st Resistance:– 115 18/32
2nd Resistance:– 116 12/32
CURRENCIES
The December U.S. dollar index is slightly lower in early trading today and did poke to another fresh contract high overnight. Bulls are still strong. Slow stochastics for the dollar index are neutral early today. The dollar index finds shorter-term technical resistance at 88.00 and then at the overnight contract high of 88.49. Shorter-term support is seen at the overnight low of 87.43 and then at 87.00. Today’s key near-term Fibonacci support/resistance level: 87.04. Wyckoff’s Intra Day Market Rating: 5.5
The December Euro is slightly higher in early electronic trading and hit another fresh contract low overnight. Euro finds sell stop orders are likely located just below technical support at 1.2500 and then just below support at 1.2400. Shorter-term technical resistance for the Euro is seen at 1.2600 and then at Monday’s high of 1.2680. Buy stops likely reside just above those levels. Slow stochastics for the Euro are neutral early today. Today’s key near-term Fibonacci support/resistance level: 1.2777. Wyckoff’s Intra Day Market Rating: 4.5
GOLD
Gold is higher in early dealings today, on short covering. For December gold, shorter-term technical resistance is seen at the overnight high of $756.10 and then at $765.00. Buy stops likely reside just above those levels. Sell stops likely reside just below support at $739.80 and then at the overnight low of $724.10. Today’s key near-term Fibonacci support/resistance level: $727.00. Wyckoff’s Intra-Day Market Rating: 6.0
CRUDE OIL
Crude oil prices are higher early today on short covering. In December crude, look for buy stops to reside just above resistance at $65.00 and then just above resistance at 66.00. Look for sell stops just below technical support at $64.00 and then more sell stops just below support at $63.00. Today’s key near-term Fibonacci support/resistance level: $67.00. Wyckoff’s Intra-Day Market Rating: 6.0
GRAINS
Prices were solidly higher in overnight trading, on short covering and bargain-hunting buying. Seasonal studies do favor corn and soybeans putting in harvest lows during this timeframe.
