Thursday, October 30–Jim Wyckoff’s Morning Web Log
(NOTE: I am out of the office Friday. My friend and fellow trader/analyst Ken Seehusen will be producing my morning report Friday. His format will be different than mine, but I think you’ll enjoy and benefit from his insight.–Jim)
OVERNIGHT/EARLY MORNING DEVELOPMENTS
The market features in overnight/early morning trading today are higher U.S. stock index futures prices and a sharply lower U.S. dollar.
* JIM’S MARKET THOUGHT OF THE DAY *
The big decline in the value of the dollar the past two days is still just so far profit-taking pressure during a bull market run for the greenback. However, continued sharp downside pressure on the dollar to end this week, including a close at or near the weekly low close on Friday in the U.S. dollar index, would begin to spook the bulls and begin to hint that a near-term market top is in place in the dollar index.–Jim
U.S. STOCK INDEXES
The U.S. stock indexes are solidly higher in early morning trading today. Trading has turned choppy. The bears do still have the near-term technical advantage. However, closes in the indexes at or near the weekly high closes on Friday would be one bullish technical clue that market bottoms may be in place.
December S&P 500: The shorter-term moving averages (4-, 9- and 18-day) are still bearish early today. The 4-day moving average is below the 9-day, but is turning up. The 9-day is below the 18-day moving average. Short-term oscillators (RSI, slow stochastics) are bullish early today. Today, shorter-term technical support comes in at the overnight low of 928.80 and then at 914.50. Sell stops likely reside just under those levels. Upside resistance for active traders today is located at Wednesday’s high of 970.50 and then at 990.00. Buy stops are likely located just above those levels. Wyckoff’s Intra-day Market Rating: 6.0
Today’s key near-term Fibonacci support/resistance level: 947.00.
PIVOT POINT LEVELS FOR DECEMBER S&P 500:
Pivot:————- 937.35
1st Support:——– 904.20
2nd Support:——– 881.35
1st Resistance:—– 960.20
2nd Resistance:—– 993.35
December Nasdaq Index: The shorter-term moving averages (4- 9-and 18-day) are neutral early today. The 4-day moving average is above the 9-day. The 9-day average is below the 18-day. Short-term oscillators (RSI, slow stochastics) are bullish early today. Shorter-term technical support is located at the overnight low of 1,294.00. Sell stops likely reside just below that level, and then more sell stops are likely located just below technical support at 1,272.00. On the upside, short-term resistance is seen at the overnight high of 1,353.00 and then at 1,373.00. Buy stops are likely located just above those levels. Wyckoff’s Intra-Day Market Rating: 6.0
Today’s key near-term Fibonacci support/resistance level: 1,319.00
PIVOT POINT LEVELS FOR DECEMBER NASDAQ:
Pivot:———— 1,304.70
1st Support:—— 1,261.35
2nd Support:—— 1,228.70
1st Resistance:— 1,337.35
2nd Resistance:— 1,380.70
December Dow: Sell stops likely reside just below support at 9,000 and then more stops just below support at 8,900. Buy stops likely reside just above shorter-term technical resistance at 9,200 and then just above resistance at 9,300. Shorter-term moving averages are bearish early today, as the 4-day moving average is below the 9-day. The 9-day moving average is below the 18-day moving average. Shorter-term oscillators (RSI, slow stochastics) are neutral today. Wyckoff’s Intra-Day Market Rating: 6.0
Today’s key near-term Fibonacci support/resistance level: 9,114
PIVOT POINT LEVELS FOR DECEMBER DOW:
Pivot:———— 9,013
1st Support:—— 8,681
2nd Support:—— 8,508
1st Resistance:— 9,186
2nd Resistance:— 9,518
U.S. TREASURY BONDS AND NOTES
U.S. T-Bonds and T-Notes futures are weaker early today. Bears have regained the near-term technical advantage.
December U.S. T-Bonds: Shorter-term moving averages (4- 9- 18-day) are bearish early today. The 4-day moving average is below the 9-day. The 9-day is below the 18-day moving average. Oscillators (RSI, slow stochastics) are bearish early today. Shorter-term technical support lies at 114 16/32 and then at 114 even. Sell stops likely reside just below those levels. Shorter-term technical resistance lies at 115 even and then at the overnight high of 115 17/32. Buy stops likely reside just above those levels. Wyckoff’s Intra-Day Market Rating: 4.5
Today’s key near-term Fibonacci support/resistance level: 115 11/32
PIVOT POINT LEVELS FOR DECEMBER T-BONDS:
Pivot:———– 115 28/32
1st Support:—– 114 20/32
2nd Support:—– 113 21/32
1st Resistance:– 116 27/32
2nd Resistance:– 118 3/32
December U.S. T-Notes: Shorter-term oscillators (RSI, slow stochastics) are bearish early today. Buy stops likely reside just above shorter-term technical resistance at 114.00.0 and then at the overnight high of 114.10.0. Shorter-term moving averages are neutral early today. The 4-day moving average is below the 9-day. The 9-day is above the 18-day moving average. Sell stop orders are likely located just below support at the overnight low of 113.18.0 and then at 113.00.0. Wyckoff’s Intra Day Market Rating: 4.0
Today’s key near-term Fibonacci support/resistance level: 114.19.0
PIVOT POINT LEVELS FOR DECEMBER T-NOTES:
Pivot:———– 114 13/32
1st Support:—– 113 22/32
2nd Support:—– 113 3/32
1st Resistance:– 115 even
2nd Resistance:– 115 23/32
CURRENCIES
The December U.S. dollar index is solidly lower again in early trading today, on more profit taking. No serious chart damage has occurred, but bulls are fading. Slow stochastics for the dollar index are bearish early today. The dollar index finds shorter-term technical resistance at 85.00 and then at the overnight high of 85.26. Shorter-term support is seen at 84.00 and then at the overnight low of 83.75. Today’s key near-term Fibonacci support/resistance level: 83.71. Wyckoff’s Intra Day Market Rating: 3.0
The December Euro is solidly higher in early electronic trading, on more short covering. Euro finds sell stop orders are likely located just below technical support at 1.3000 and then just below support at the overnight low of 1.2922. Shorter-term technical resistance for the Euro is seen at 1.3100 and then at 1.3200. Buy stops likely reside just above those levels. Slow stochastics for the Euro are bullish early today. Today’s key near-term Fibonacci support/resistance level: 1.3280. Wyckoff’s Intra Day Market Rating: 6.5
GOLD
Gold is higher in early dealings today, on more short covering. For December gold, shorter-term technical resistance is seen at the overnight high of $778.30 and then at $788.00. Buy stops likely reside just above those levels. Sell stops likely reside just below support at the overnight low of $755.40 and then at $750.00. Today’s key near-term Fibonacci support/resistance level: $779.00. Wyckoff’s Intra-Day Market Rating: 6.0
CRUDE OIL
Crude oil prices are higher early today on more short covering. In December crude, look for buy stops to reside just above resistance at the overnight high of $70.60 and then just above resistance at 72.00. Look for sell stops just below technical support at the overnight low of $67.69 and then more sell stops just below support at $67.00. Today’s key near-term Fibonacci support/resistance level: $67.00. Wyckoff’s Intra-Day Market Rating: 6.0
GRAINS
Prices near steady in overnight trading. Seasonal studies do favor corn and soybeans putting in harvest lows during this timeframe. Weekly high closes in corn and beans this week would give the bulls better confidence that harvest lows are in place and that prices can work higher into the end of the year. Wheat bulls also gained some fresh upside near-term technical momentum on Wednesday.
