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Since the March 9 market lows, we have seen broad-based pessimism give way to a synchronous relief rally in risk assets around the world. We would like to believe that March 9 was “the” low of this bear market, but having studied more than 100 years of market cycles, we must acknowledge first, that there is no way to know a bottom in advance, and second, that bottoms have always been a process, not a day. Lasting bottoms each cycle are typically tested more than twice.
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A most recent study can be made in comparing the below chart of the S&P 500 price action during this bear market 2007 to date and the preceding cyclical bear of 2000-2002.
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