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NEAR-TERM MARKET FUNDAMENTALS: The corn market found support overnight from outside markets and very light farmer selling ahead of today’s Planting Intentions and Quarterly Grain Stocks reports. Those reports are expected to be the dominant price factor today. Traders are looking for corn planted acreage just below 84.5 million acres versus 86.0 million last year, but the range of estimates runs from 80 to 89 million. Wet weather in the Midwest may cause continued debate over acreage according to one analyst with the next 10 days expected to bring active showers and thunderstorms that could bring delays in fieldwork and even planting. This week’s export inspections were 35.785 million bushels in corn, up from last week’s total of 31.278 million and above trade expectations. Total inspections to-date stand at 54.6% of the projected total for the marketing year versus a 5-year average of 55.8%. Argentina’s Agriculture Secretariat estimated 2008/09 corn production at 12.5 to 13.8 million tonnes, unchanged from their previous estimate and this compares with 13.5 million from the USDA
CASH NEWS AND TENDERS: An Israeli firm is tendering for 25,000 tonnes of corn.
WEATHER: Cooler temperatures and scattered showers are forecast in Argentina over the next few days. Somewhat drier weather is forecast for the period in Brazil. In the US, an active weather system is expected to bring showers and thunderstorms to the Midwest over the next 10 days with Delta seeing even more activity over the next few days.
TODAY’S GUIDANCE: The USDA Planting Intentions and Quarterly Stocks reports should outweigh all other factors today and possibly into tomorrow. However, even the biggest surprises often run out gas after the second day, so we do not expect the reports to be major trend-setters, barring a major bearish surprise. It is also worth noting that farmers appear to be less committed to a planting decision than is normally the case at this point in the year, meaning that the debate over acres may pick right back up after today
TODAY’S MARKET IDEAS: If today’s numbers are near the trade estimates, we may see a push back up to near 400 in the May contract.
