This morning’s surge in the iShares Barclays 20+ Year Treas Bond (NYSE: TLT) reflects greater-than-expected economic deceleration from Q2 to the revised (higher) Q1, as well as disappointing figures for personal consumption, which has triggered a fierce bout of short-covering.
Since yesterday’s upside reversal off of a marginal new low off the July 1 high, the TLT has recovered 50% of its monthly loss and technically argues that a major correction in a still-intact larger bull run is complete — and that a new upleg has commenced.
We have discussed in the past that my optimal intermediate-term target zone in the TLT’s is 104 to as high as 107. Unless and until this week’s low at 97.92 is violated, the bullish outlook will remain my preferred scenario.
