Stock prices gapped higher again, this time on news that Q2 GDP grew at a 2.5% annual rate, slower than the generally expected 3.0%. This news encouraged widespread hopes of a soft landing for the U.S. economy, an earlier end to the Fed’s relentless increases in interest rates, and even a pause at the Fed’s August 8th meeting.
On the other hand, core inflation rose at a 2.9% annual rate–more than the Fed likes and the highest in 12 years. It is not at all clear which worries the Fed more, slowing economy or rising inflation. It will be a tough call.
Also, there appears to be little reason to hope for a any diplomatic breakthrough in the Middle East. So, there remains substantial risk of a widening war and possible disruption of oil supplies.
I am using upside reactions to news as opportunities to SELL!
