I find these types of reports laughable, but they make for interesting reading nonetheless. Maybe Harry Dent was right after all, but I don’t really see it. The good news is it doesn’t matter as I don’t base my trading on what I think the market is going to do…as I do what it’s doing now. It certainly would be nice to ride another bubble…
“The single most important non-cyclical influence that has held sway over the stock market is war.… as the new administration takes power, the reality that seven years [now nine years] of foreign conflict may be drawing to an end bodes well for the markets. As the chart illustrates, the market has failed to make any significant headway so long as the country is embroiled in a significant conflagration. |
| In the updated chart above the long-term range-bound markets surrounding World War I, World War II and Vietnam are shaded. |
| Once the war ended, inflation kicked in and the stock market took off as higher prices, peace and prosperity generated long booms and secular bull markets as we detail in the March Proving Grounds: Nature of the Bull. |
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