It’s the last day of the month and the quarter. It’s a slow start; there is a bunch of numbers out today. The S&P/Case Shiller Home Price Index is out at 8, the Chicago PMI at 8:45, and Consumer Confidence at 9 AM.In addition, the USDA releases a report on 2009 grain plantings.I’ll be interested to see how the HPI can be bullishly spun if it’s weak.The gift that keeps on giving; AIG warned of a material adverse effect due to valuations of CDS.They’re concerned about swaps written for European banks.The Dollar is a shade lower on improved risk appetite.The VIX is making new lows for 2009.This week’s reports may help show whether this optimism is warranted.
Sept. S&P:Holding over 918.50 is bullish; resistance is 927 then 930.50.
Sept. Dow:8483 is Fibonacci retracement resistance; momentum is still bullish.
Sept. Treasury Bonds:Still bullish; there’s support at 118-08.
Sept Dollar Index:Breaking under last week’s double bottom at 7990, 7968 is next support.
Sept Japanese Yen:Momentum buy day; watch support at 10395.
Sept. Euro Currency:Broke trendline resistance; last week’s high at 14133 is next resistance.
Sept. British Pound:Couldn’t clear the last swing high at 16658; 16546 then 16485 are support.
Sept. Canadian Dollar:Really coiling up; there’s a breakout coming; when is the real question.
August Gold:Rangebound; 945 is resistance, support is 938 then 935.
Sept. Silver:Trendline resistance is 1409; support is around 1390.
Sept. Cocoa:There’s resistance at 2590; I’ve got an upside breakout point at 2621.
Sept. Coffee:Bullish; has to clear the May high at 12170.
Dec. Cotton:The rally failed; watch support at 5685 then 5636.
August Crude Oil:Couldn’t stay over trendline resistance at 71.82, watch support at 7100.
August Natural Gas:Downside break under last week’s low of 3.871; the June low at 3.710 is the next downside target.
August Live Cattle:An awesome example of a breakout trade.The April high at 8582 is the next upside target.
August Lean Hogs:Watch trendline and Fibonacci resistance at 5945. I think the bottom is in as the double bottom around 5760 holds.
Grains:We’ll see how it falls out, but the USDA forecasts that we’ll have the largest corn acres planted since 1946.The soybean numbers were a bit friendly, as they won’t be picking up as many corn acres as thought, but I’m not sure it can overcome the corn.I’ll look at it more before the open.
Nov. Soybeans:Breakout day; watch support at 980 then 970.If they find strength, resistance is 998-4.
Dec. Soymeal:Breakout day; resistance is 307, support is 30250.
Dec. Bean Oil:Breakout day; watch support at 3650.
Dec. Corn:Looking at the downside; watch the April double bottom at 390-6 then the March low at 375-4.
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