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Crude oil prices extended the rally last week, where the weakness of the U.S. dollar pushed crude oil prices to the highest level since June 2008 above $113 a barrel. The weakness of the U.S. dollar came after the Fed’s Chairman, Ben Bernanke, confirmed the Fed will continue their loose monetary policy, and accordingly, crude oil prices extended their rally.
The weakness of the U.S. dollar has been the spark behind most movements in financial markets over the past week, and we still expect the U.S. dollar to continue its drop over the upcoming period, and that will pressure crude oil prices to rise further, thus we preserve our upside direction for crude oil prices, but we don’t exclude the possibility of a downside correction.
Highlights for this week that will probably affect the Crude Oil direction are:
Monday 12:30, Canada will release the Industrial Product Price index for the month of March, where industrial product prices increased by 0.7% in February, also, the Raw Materials Price index will be released for March, where raw materials prices rose in February by 1.8%, reflecting mainly the rise in energy prices.
Monday 14:00, the United States will release the ISM manufacturing index for the month of April, where the ISM manufacturing index is expected to ease to 60.1 in April, compared with the prior estimate of 61.2 reported back in March.
Tuesday 14:00, the United States will release the Factory Orders index for the month of March, where factory orders are expected to rise by 1.6%, following the prior decline of 0.1% in February.
Wednesday 12:215, the United States will release the ADP Employment Change report for the month of April, where the ADP employment is expected to show that U.S. private employers added 198,000 jobs in April, compared with the prior reported rise of 201,000 added jobs back in March, the ADP reports is important since it’s released two days ahead of the Non-farm payrolls.
Wednesday 14:00, the United States will release the ISM Non-Manufacturing (Services) index for the month of April, where the ISM Non-manufacturing index is expected to rise to 58.0 in April, compared with the prior estimate of 57.3 reported back in March, where the recovery in the services sector seems to be picking up some pace.
Wednesday, 14:30, The Department of Energy will release the weekly petroleum status for the week ending April 29, where the prior report showed that crude oil inventories increased by 6.2 million barrels.
Thursday 12:30, the United States will release the Nonfarm Productivity preliminary estimate for the first quarter of 2011, where Nonfarm productivity is expected to rise by 0.5% only, compared with the prior rise of 2.6% in the fourth quarter, as economic growth eased in the first quarter, while Unit Labor Costs are expected to rise by 0.8%, compared with the prior drop of 0.6%.
Thursday 12:30, the United States will release the Jobless Claims for the week ending April 30, where jobless claims rose last week to 429,000, where conditions in the labor market are still improving over a gradual pace.
Thursday 14:00, Canada will release the Ivey PMI for the month of April, where Ivey PMI reached 73.2 in March.
Friday 11:00, Canada will release the jobs report for the month of April, where the Net Change in Employment declined in March by 1.5 thousand jobs, and conditions in the Canadian labor market seem to be improving recently. The Unemployment Rate was 7.7 percent in March.
Friday 12:30, the United States will release the jobs report for the month of April, where Non-farm payrolls are expected to rise by 193,000 jobs in April, compared with the prior rise of 216,000 added jobs in March, while the Unemployment Rate is expected to remain unchanged at 8.8 percent.
Originally posted here
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