It’s that time of year when prognosticators peer into the magic potion pot and reveal what the future holds. After rummaging through the catchall closet, I put on a Merlin hat from an old Halloween costume and thought I would give the magic 8-ball a try.
Hopefully, the mix-and-match combo will give me superpowers. TEN Submitted 12 questions for 2012. Let’s give the 8-ball a shake and see what happens?
Q1: Will the stock market finish up for 2012?
shaking…..
A: Don’t count on it.
Q2: Will stocks outperform bonds?
A: As I see it, yes.
Q3: Will Gold & Silver outperform stocks and bonds?
A: It is decidedly so.
Q4: Will Oil reach $150?
A: My sources say no.
Q5: Will the EU lose or kick-out any members in the year ahead?
A: Signs point to yes.
Q6: Will a major European Bank fail?
A: My sources say no.
Q7: With China and the EU economies slowing down, will the US go into recession within the next 12 months?
A: It is decidedly so.
Q8: Does that mean there will be QE3?
A: Reply hazy, try again…
A # 2: Signs point to yes.
Q9: On January 1, 2013, will unemployment be under 9%?
A: Ask again later.
Q10: Will Barack Obama be reelected?
A: As I see it yes.
Q11: Will the US or Israel Attack Iran?
A: My sources say no.
Repeat Q9: On January 1, 2013, will unemployment be under 9%?
A: Ask again later.
Ok, ONE MORE TIME – On January 1, 2013, will unemployment be under 9%?
A: finally – You may rely on it.
Q12: Are the Mayans correct, will the world end in December 2012?
A: My sources say no.
Obviously, Top Equity News does this in jest to poke fun at all the year-end prediction makers. However, in a weird way we agree with most of the answers.
We do expect the world economy to slow and that a mild US recession in the later part of 2012 to be a real possibility. Beforehand, the money supply expansion from the ECB and the Fed will continue to blow air into economic numbers, keeping the GDP ship slightly above water and employment numbers essentially on a flat line.
This will help President Obama get re-elected; however, it wouldn’t surprise us to see him lose the popular vote as voter intensity in red sates will be much higher than blue, but the Electoral College goes with the incumbent.
That’s the good news for the President; he will have to work with a Republican Senate and a larger GOP majority in the house. Wall Street will love it, and you will read 100s of stories about how a Democrat President with a House and Senate full of Republicans has been the best combination for stocks.
With the election over, the Fed will have the political cover to launch QE3 as the economy starts to sputter. The news sends stocks up 10% and back to break-even for the year; while gold, silver and oil scream higher as the dollar gets crunched.
Frankly, it’s anybody’s guess what happens in Europe. The entire EU experiment could dissolve or it can continue to “muddle along” as a rag-tag group of bond junkies looking for a fix.
This writer has always held the suspicion that the real goal is to buy time for the bigger banks, institutions and wealthy to harden their assets. That way when the stuff hits the fan, they will still be standing after the fat is cut from the PIIGS.
No matter what happens though, stick with Top Equity News as we will analyze actual events and how to play them in a way that benefits your portfolio.
Have a safe and fun New Year’s Eve and we will see you next year.
12 Predictions for 2012 is an article from: 
