U.S. dollar ETF (UUP) price fell below its lows of the previous 11 months on 10/1/13. Price turned systematically bearish (from neutral) on 9/12/13 when its 50-day SMA crossed below its 200-day SMA.
NASDAQ 100 ETF (QQQ), Small Cap Russell 2000 Index (IWM), and S&P Mid Cap 400 (MDY) absolute prices rose above their highs of the past 12 years on 10/1/13 to confirm their preexisting bullish trends.
The S&P 500 Composite Index (SPX: 1,695.00, up 0.80%) absolute price closed above the open, above the midpoint of the day’s high-low range, above the closing prices of the previous 2 trading days, and above its widely-watched 50-day and 200-day SMAs.
NYSE total volume fell 2% to a level 12% below its 200-day SMA. Generally, rising volume confirms the direction (up or down) of a price move, but falling volume may indicate diminishing power behind a price trend, which can suggest a price reversal ahead.
The Cumulative Up-Down Volume Line on the NYSE and the Cumulative Daily Advance-Decline Line on the NYSE both turned upward on Tuesday. The Cumulative Up-Down Volume Line fell below its 50-day SMA on 9/23/13, thereby turning systematically neutral (from bullish), while the Advance-Decline Line has remained bullish above its 50-day SMA and above its 200-day SMA since 9/13/13.
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Stock Market Indicators
The Dow Theory reconfirmed a Primary Tide Bull Market on 9/18/13, when the Dow-Jones Industrial Average and the Dow-Jones Transportation Average both closed at new closing price highs.
NASDAQ 100/S&P 500 Relative Strength Ratio (QQQ/SPY) rose to its highest level in 11 months on 10/1/13. QQQ/SPY turned systematically bullish on 8/26/13, when the 50-day SMA crossed above the 200-day SMA. Absolute price of QQQ rose above its 50-day SMA on 7/5/13, thereby turning systematically bullish (from neutral). Absolute price of the NASDAQ 100 ETF (QQQ) rose above its highs of the past 12 years on 10/1/13 to confirm its preexisting bullish trend.
iShares MSCI BRIC Fund (BKF) Relative Strength Ratio (BKF/SPY) whipsawed back up above its 50-day SMA on 8/30/13, thereby turning systematically neutral (from bearish). The 50-day SMA remains far below the 200-day SMA, and BKF/SPY fell below the lows of the previous 4 years on 8/7/13. BKF/SPY has underperformed since it peaked on 10/14/2010. Absolute price of BKF peaked at 42.29 on 2/1/13, fell to a 20-month low at 32.62 on 6/24/13, and whipsawed back up above its 50-day SMA on 9/4/13, thereby turning systematically neutral (from bearish).
Emerging Markets Stocks ETF (EEM) Relative Strength Ratio (EEM/SPY) whipsawed back up above its 50-day SMA on 9/4/13, thereby turning systematically neutral (from bearish). The 50-day SMA remains far below the 200-day SMA, and EEM/SPY fell below the lows of the previous 4 years on 7/10/13. EEM/SPY has underperformed since the ratio peaked on 10/14/2010. This year, absolute price of EEM peaked at 45.34 on 1/2/13, fell to a 19-month low of 36.16 on 6/24/13, and whipsawed back up above its 50-day SMA on 9/4/13, thereby turning systematically neutral (from bearish).
Foreign Stocks ETF (EFA) Relative Strength Ratio (EFA/SPY) whipsawed back up above its 50-day SMA on 9/3/13, thereby turning systematically neutral (from bearish). The 50-day SMA remains below the 200-day SMA. For nearly 6 years, from 11/27/07 to 7/9/13, EFA/SPY underperformed. Absolute price of EFA rose above its 4-year high of 64.14 on 9/18/13 and remains systematically bullish.
The Largest Cap S&P 100/S&P 500 Relative Strength Ratio (OEF/SPY) whipsawed back down below its 50-day SMA on 9/24/13, thereby turning systematically bearish (from neutral). Large Caps tend to outperform in bearish general market trends as investors seek the perceived relative stability and safety of large size. On the other hand, Large Caps tend to underperform Mid Caps and Small Caps in bullish general market trends as investors seek greater potential returns in more volatile, smaller stocks.
The Small Cap Russell 2000 Index/Large Cap Relative Strength Ratio (IWM/SPY) turned systematically bullish (from neutral) on 9/3/13 and rose above its highs of the past 18 months on 10/1/13 to confirm its preexisting bullish trend. Absolute price turned systematically bullish (from neutral) on 9/9/13 and rose to new highs on 10/1/13 to confirm its preexisting bullish trend.
The S&P Mid Cap 400/Large Cap Relative Strength Ratio (MDY/SPY) turned systematically bullish (from neutral) on 9/24/13 and rose above its highs of the past 27 months on 10/1/13 to confirm its preexisting bullish trend. Absolute price turned systematically bullish (from neutral) on 9/9/13 and rose to new highs on 10/1/13 to confirm its preexisting bullish trend.
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Tangible Assets, Commodities
U.S. dollar ETF (UUP) price fell below its lows of the previous 11 months on 10/1/13. Price turned systematically bearish (from neutral) on 9/12/13 when its 50-day SMA crossed below its 200-day SMA. Longer term, UUP has been consolidating secular trend losses since bottoming at 20.84 on 5/4/11. Support 21.53, 21.07, and 20.84. Resistance 22.34, 22.98, 23.14, 23.52, 25.84, 27.19, and 28.97.
Agriculture, PowerShares DB Agriculture Fund ETF (DBA) price turned systematically bearish (from neutral) on 1/11/13 when its 50-day SMA crossed below its 200-day SMA. Price is currently slightly above its 50-day SMA, which is neutral, but price could easily slip back below its 50-day SMA, which would make it systematically bearish again., DBA price fell below its lows of the past 3 years on 8/2/13 and has been trending down since peaking on 3/4/11.
Crude Oil, United States Oil ETF (USO) price whipsawed back down below its 50-day SMA on 9/20/13, thereby turning systematically neutral again (from bullish). Support 36.82, 36.35, 32.53, 32.12, 30.79, 29.02, 26.28, and 22.74. Resistance 39.54, 39.64, 40.29, 41.38, 42.30, and 45.60.
Gold, SPDR Gold Shares ETF (GLD) price whipsawed back down below its 50-day SMA on 9/20/13, thereby turning systematically bearish again (from neutral). Support: 125.15, 123.55, 122.73, 114.68, 113.08 and 102.28. Resistance: 137.62, 143.43, 149.44, 153.85, 156.80, 164.40, 166.94, 170.01, 174.07, 175.46, 177.40, and 185.85.
Gold Mining Stocks ETF/Gold Shares ETF Relative Strength Ratio (GDX/GLD) has stayed systematically bearish most of the time since absolute price peaked at 66.98 on 9/9/11. Longer term, GDX/GLD has remained mostly bearish for more than 7 years, since 9/5/06.
Silver, iShares Silver Trust ETF (SLV) price fell below its 50-day SMA on 9/23/13, thereby turning systematically bearish (from neutral). Support 20.45, 18.71, 17.75, 16.73, 14.37, 12.27, 11.64, and 8.45. Resistance: 23.84, 25.34, 27.14, 27.35, 28.50, 28.61, 29.73, 31.41, 32.72, 33.31, 34.08, 36.44, 40.23, 41.49, 42.30, 42.78, 44.71, and 48.35.
Silver/Gold ETFs Ratio (SLV/GLD) crossed back above its 50-day SMA on 8/9/13, thereby turning systematically neutral (from bearish). SLV underperformed GLD for more than 2 years from 4/28/11 to 7/30/13.
Copper, iPath DJ-UBS Copper TR Sub-Index ETN (JJC) price whipsawed back up above its 50-day SMA on 9/18/13, thereby turning systematically neutral again (from bearish). Longer term, JJC price was in a persistent downtrend for more than 2 years from its peak of 61.69 on 2/14/11 to its low of 36.87 on 6/24/13. “Dr. Copper” is widely accepted as one of the better indicators of investor confidence (or lack thereof) in the global industrial economy.
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Spotlight on event stocks: Here is a stock screen I designed to pick out potential event stocks, both Bullish and Bearish. Sometimes, stocks with large changes in price and volume are later revealed to be deal stocks or are the subject of some other extraordinary events, positive or negative.
Bullish Stocks: Rising Price and Rising Volume
Ranked by Price Change * Volume Change
% Price Change, Symbol, Name
2.92% , MVV , Ultra MidCap400 Double, MVV
1.31% , IJH , MidCap S&P 400 iS, IJH
7.18% , SHLD , SEARS HOLDINGS
1.57% , IJK , Growth MidCap 400 B, IJK
1.13% , PPA , Aerospace & Defense, PPA
1.37% , MDY , MidCap S&P 400 SPDRs, MDY
1.27% , IJJ , Value MidCap S&P 400 B, IJJ
4.98% , NFLX , Netflix, NFLX
2.20% , PGJ , China LargeCap Growth G D H USX PS, PGJ
0.32% , IXC , Energy Global, IXC
0.93% , EWO , Austria Index, EWO
1.08% , FRN , Frontier Markets Guggenheim , FRN
0.70% , IXJ , Healthcare Global, IXJ
0.82% , VIS , Industrials VIPERs, VIS
3.58% , DLX , DELUXE
0.98% , IJS , Value SmallCap S&P 600 B, IJS
1.11% , IWP , Growth MidCap Russell, IWP
4.07% , PBI , PITNEY BOWES
1.39% , IYH , Healthcare DJ, IYH
2.81% , WPO , Washington Post
1.61% , EWP , Spain Index, EWP
1.15% , EWG , Germany Index, EWG
2.44% , EWW , Mexico Index, EWW
1.98% , SWK , Stanley Black & Decker
1.22% , EZU , EMU Europe Index, EZU
2.54% , MSI , Motorola Solutions, MSI
1.72% , NCR , NCR
1.24% , FPX , IPOs, First Tr IPOX-100, FPX
0.43% , IYM , Basic Materials DJ US, IYM
2.48% , ODP , OFFICE DEPOT
1.05% , RZV , Value SmallCap S&P 600, RZV
4.54% , WAG , WALGREEN
1.73% , PBW , WilderHill Clean Energy PS, PBW
. . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . .
Bearish Stocks: Falling Price and Rising Volume
Ranked by Price Change * Volume Change
% Price Change, Symbol, Name
-2.68% , ASH , ASHLAND
-2.32% , SLV , Silver Trust iS, SLV
-2.80% , GLD , Gold Shares S.T., GLD
-3.17% , NEM , NEWMONT MINING
-1.06% , AON , AON
-1.65% , ADSK , AUTODESK
-1.20% , WHR , WHIRLPOOL
-2.05% , QID , Short 200% QQQ PS, QID
-0.42% , MUB , Bond Muni ATM-Free S&P iS, MUB
-2.87% , IAU , Gold COMEX iS, IAU
-0.48% , WAT , WATERS
-2.00% , MRVL , MARVELL TECHNOLOGY
-1.35% , NYT , NY TIMES STK A
-1.62% , PAYX , PAYCHEX
-0.93% , NWSA , News Corporation, NWSA
-1.41% , DISCA , Discovery Communications
-0.42% , LQD , Bond, Corp, LQD
-0.41% , FII , FED INVESTORS STK B
-2.12% , SIL , Silver Miners Global X, SIL
-0.76% , DPS , Dr Pepper Snapple Group
-0.55% , AVY , AVERY DENNISON
-0.41% , UTX , UNITED TECH
-0.18% , CPWR , COMPUWARE
-0.05% , SHY , Bond, 1-3 Year Treasury, SHY
-0.40% , SYMC , SYMANTEC
-0.32% , TMK , TORCHMARK
-0.25% , AGG , Bond, Aggregate, AGG
-0.21% , TUP , TUPPERWARE
-0.18% , ISIL , INTERSIL CORP
-0.44% , JWN , NORDSTROM
-0.46% , USO , Oil, Crude, U.S. Oil Fund, USO
-0.34% , TDC , Teradata Corporation, TDC
-0.15% , MJN , Mead Johnson Nutrition
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One-Day Ranking of Major ETFs, Ranked from Strongest to Weakest of the Day:
% Price Change, ETF Name, Symbol
4.84% , Indonesia MV, IDX
4.72% , Thailand MSCI iS, THD
4.66% , Turkey MSCI iS, TUR
2.55% , Italy Index, EWI
2.44% , Mexico Index, EWW
2.27% , Russia MV, RSX
2.20% , China LargeCap Growth G D H USX PS, PGJ
2.07% , Biotech SPDR, XBI
2.06% , Malaysia Index, EWM
2.00% , Emerging Markets MSCI iS, EEM
1.98% , Emerging VIPERs, VWO
1.76% , Taiwan Index, EWT
1.75% , India PS, PIN
1.73% , WilderHill Clean Energy PS, PBW
1.65% , Chile MSCI iS, ECH
1.65% , Realty Cohen & Steers, ICF
1.61% , Spain Index, EWP
1.57% , MidCap Growth S&P 400 iS, IJK
1.55% , Sweden Index, EWD
1.52% , Real Estate US DJ iS, IYR
1.49% , Latin Am 40, ILF
1.49% , Emerging 50 BLDRS, ADRE
1.47% , REIT Wilshire, RWR
1.46% , South Korea Index, EWY
1.45% , REIT VIPERs, VNQ
1.44% , India Earnings WTree, EPI
1.41% , Growth SmallCap VIPERs, VBK
1.40% , China 25 iS, FXI
1.38% , Transportation Av DJ, IYT
1.37% , MidCap S&P 400 SPDRs, MDY
1.36% , Small Cap VIPERs, VB
1.34% , SmallCap Growth Russell 2000 iS, IWO
1.31% , MidCap Blend S&P 400 iS, IJH
1.27% , MidCap Value S&P 400 iS, IJJ
1.27% , Health Care SPDR, XLV
1.26% , SmallCap Growth S&P 600 iS, IJT
1.23% , France Index, EWQ
1.22% , Networking, IGN
1.22% , EMU Europe Index, EZU
1.21% , Value SmallCap VIPERS, VBR
1.16% , SmallCap Blend Russell 2000 iS, IWM
1.15% , SmallCap Blend S&P 600 iS, IJR
1.15% , Semiconductor SPDR, XSD
1.15% , Germany Index, EWG
1.13% , Netherlands Index, EWN
1.12% , Technology DJ US, IYW
1.11% , Growth MidCap Russell, IWP
1.10% , MidCap Russell, IWR
1.08% , Frontier Markets Guggenheim , FRN
1.07% , Info Tech VIPERs, VGT
1.05% , Singapore Index, EWS
1.04% , Microcap Russell, IWC
1.02% , Value MidCap Russell, IWS
1.02% , Growth VIPERs, VUG
1.01% , QQQ Nasdaq 100 Trust, QQQ
1.00% , SmallCap Value Russell 2000 iS, IWN
1.00% , Hong Kong Index, EWH
1.00% , Financial DJ US, IYF
0.98% , SmallCap Value S&P 600 iS, IJS
0.97% , Pacific ex-Japan, EPP
0.96% , Semiconductor iS IGW, SOXX
0.96% , Brazil Index, EWZ
0.95% , Capital Markets KWB ST, KCE
0.93% , Austria Index, EWO
0.92% , LargeCap Growth Russell 1000 iS, IWF
0.91% , Financials VIPERs, VFH
0.91% , Telecom DJ US, IYZ
0.89% , LargeCap Blend Russell 1000 iS, IWB
0.87% , Technology SPDR, XLK
0.87% , LargeCap Growth S&P 500 iS, IVW
0.87% , Blend Total Market VIPERs, VTI
0.83% , Australia Index, EWA
0.83% , LargeCap Blend Russell 3000 iS, IWV
0.82% , Global LargeCap Blend MSCI iS, ACWI
0.81% , LargeCap Blend S&P=Weight R, RSP
0.81% , Dividend SPDR, SDY
0.81% , LargeCap Blend S&P 500 iS, IVV
0.81% , Consumer Discretionary SPDR, XLY
0.80% , Global ex U.S. LargeCap Blend, ACWX
0.80% , LargeCap Blend S&P 100, OEF
0.80% , LargeCap VIPERs, VV
0.79% , S&P 500 SPDRs LargeCap Blend, SPY
0.77% , Europe 350 S&P Index, IEV
0.76% , Energy VIPERs, VDE
0.73% , LargeCap Value Russell 1000 iS, IWD
0.70% , Financial SPDR, XLF
0.70% , Energy DJ, IYE
0.69% , Homebuilders SPDR, XHB
0.68% , LargeCap Value S&P 500 iS, IVE
0.67% , Financial Services DJ, IYG
0.66% , Value EAFE MSCI, EFV
0.66% , European VIPERs, VGK
0.66% , SmallCap Blend EAFE MSCI iS, SCZ
0.65% , Energy & Nat Res iS GS, IGE
0.64% , Value VIPERs, VTV
0.64% , Energy SPDR, XLE
0.64% , Industrial SPDR, XLI
0.63% , Dividend High Yield Equity PS, PEY
0.63% , Dividend U.S. DJ iS, DVY
0.63% , Dividend Appreciation Vipers, VIG
0.62% , Value LargeCap Dynamic PS, PWV
0.60% , Consumer Staples SPDR, XLP
0.59% , Water Resources, PHO
0.57% , Global 100, IOO
0.55% , Dividend ex-U.S. DJ iS, IDV
0.54% , South Africa Index, EZA
0.53% , Foreign LargeCap EAFE MSCI iS, EFA
0.51% , Switzerland Index, EWL
0.43% , Basic Materials DJ US, IYM
0.43% , Materials SPDR, XLB
0.42% , Canada Index, EWC
0.41% , DIAMONDS (DJIA), DIA
0.41% , Dividend International, PID
0.39% , Belgium Index, EWK
0.35% , Metals & Mining SPDR, XME
0.34% , Utilities VIPERs, VPU
0.32% , Energy Global, IXC
0.30% , Utilities SPDR, XLU
0.25% , Growth EAFE MSCI, EFG
0.15% , Bond Ex-US Treas, BWX
0.07% , Pacific VIPERs, VPL
-0.01% , Bond Treasury Short-Term iS, SHV
-0.05% , Bond, 1-3 Year Treasury, SHY
-0.05% , United Kingdom Index, EWU
-0.05% , Bond, High Yield Corp iBoxx iS, HYG
-0.17% , Bond, TIPS U.S. Treasury iS, TIP
-0.20% , Agriculture DB PS, DBA
-0.25% , Bond, Intermediate US Aggregate iS, AGG
-0.26% , Bond, Emerging Mkt JPM iS, EMB
-0.29% , Bond, High-Yield Junk, JNK
-0.29% , Financial Preferred, PGF
-0.33% , Oil Fund PowerShares, DBO
-0.37% , Bond, 10 Year Treasury, IEF
-0.42% , Japan Index, EWJ
-0.42% , Bond, Muni S&P ATM-Free iS, MUB
-0.42% , Bond, Long-Term Corp iBoxx iS, LQD
-0.46% , Oil, Crude, U.S. Oil Fund, USO
-0.56% , Bond, 20+ Years Treasury, TLT
-0.66% , Commodity Tracking, DBC
-0.76% , Preferred Stock iS, PFF
-0.82% , Bear, Short S&P 500, SH
-2.32% , Silver Trust iS, SLV
-2.80% , Gold Shares S.T., GLD
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The S&P 500 Composite Potential Resistance
1729.86, high of 9/19/2013
1709.67, high of 8/2/2013
1703.85, high of 9/26/2013
1700.18, high of 8/8/2013
1698.78, high of 7/23/2013
1696.81, high of 8/13/2013
The S&P 500 Composite Potential Support
1687.18, high of 5/22/2013
1687.11, low of 9/27/2013
1679.96, 50-day SMA
1676.03, low of 7/26/2013
1674.99, low of 9/30/2013
1672.40, high of 9/9/2013
1671.84, low of 7/16/2013
1669.51, high of 8/26/2013
1654.19, high of 6/18/2013
1654.18, high of 7/9/2013
1652.62, Fib 38.2% of Jun-Aug 2013
1652.61, low of 8/16/2013
1635.00, Fib 50.0% of Jun-Aug 2013
1629.05, low of 08/27/2013
1617.38, Fib 61.8% of Jun-Aug 2013
1606.04, Fib 23.6% of Nov-May 2013
1592.29, Fib 78.6% of Jun-Aug 2013
1592.16, 200-day SMA
1560.33, low of 6/24/2013
1556.24, Equal Waves Projection
1555.84, Fib 38.2% of Nov-May 2013
1536.03, low of 4/18/2013
1530.94, high of 2/19/2013
1515.27, Fib 50% of Nov-May 2013
1485.01, low of 2/26/2013
1474.69, Fib 61.8% of Nov-May 2013
1474.51, high of 9/14/2012
1468.82, Fib 78.6% of 2009-13 range
1451.64, low on 1/8/2013
1448.00, high of 12/19/2012
1440.24, high of 5/19/2008
1439.15, high of 9/12/2012
1438.59, high of 12/12/2012
1434.27, high of 11/2/2012
1432.82, low of 12/20/2012
1430.53, low of 9/26/2012
1426.76, low of 12/12/2012
1425.53, low of 10/12/2012
1423.73, high of 12/3/2012
1422.58, low of 12/21/2012
1422.38, high of 4/2/2012
1422.06, low of 10/22/2012
1421.12, high of 10/25/2012
1420.34, high of 12/7/2012
1419.70, high of 11/29/2012
1418.71, high of 8/17/2012
1416.93, Fib 79.6% of Nov-May 2013
1415.32, high of 5/1/2012
1409.16, high of 11/23/2012
1403.28, low of 10/26/12
1401.58, low of 12/28/12
1398.11, low of 12/31/2012
1397.68, low of 11/26/2012
1396.56, low of 9/4/2012
1391.04, low of 8/6/2012
1388.71, low of 5/3/2012
1385.43, low of 11/28/2012
1381.50, Fibonacci 78.6% of 2007-2009 range
1380.39, high of 7/19/2012
1374.81, high of 7/3/2012
1370.58, high of 5/2/2011
1363.49, high of 6/19/2012
1357.38, low of 4/10/2012
1343.35, low of 11/16/2012
1340.03, low of 3/6/2012
1335.52, high of 6/11/2012
1334.93, high of 5/31/2012
1329.24, low of 7/24/2012
1329.05, high of 6/7/2012
1328.49, high of 5/22/2012
1325.41, low of 7/12/2012
1306.62, low of 6/12/2012
1297.39, Fib 61.8% of 2009-13 range
1291.98, low of 5/18/2012
1266.74, low of 6/4/2012
1265.26, low of 1/5/2012
1262.30, low of 12/27/2011
1244.80, low of 12/7/2011
1239.73, low of 12/1/2011
1238.81, Fibonacci 78.6% of 1,576.09 high
1234.81, low of 11/3/2011
1231.04, high of 12/16/2011
1228.74, Fibonacci 61.8% of 2007-2009 range
1226.64, low of 11/9/2011
1224.57, high of 12/19/2011
1215.20, low of 12/16/2011
1202.37, low of 12/19/2011
1176.99, Fib 50% of 2009-13 range
1158.66, low of 11/25/2011
1121.44, Fibonacci 50% of 2007-2009 range
1056.58, Fib 38.2% of 2009-13 range
1074.77, low of 10/4/2011
1014.14, Fibonacci 38.2% of 2007-2009 range
1010.91, low of 7/1/2010
991.97, low of 9/2/2009
978.51, low of 8/17/2009
956.23, high of 6/11/2009
907.60, Fib 23.6% of 2009-13 range
881.38, Fibonacci 23.6% of 2007-2009 range
869.32, low of 7/8/2009
666.79, intraday low of 3/6/2009
