Tuesday, November 11–Jim Wyckoff’s Morning Web Log

OVERNIGHT/EARLY MORNING DEVELOPMENTS

The market features in overnight/early morning trading today are lower U.S. stock index futures prices and lower crude oil prices.

* JIM’S MARKET THOUGHT OF THE DAY *

As deflationary pressures continue to grip most of the raw commodity markets, the path of least resistance for these markets continues to be down. Crude oil is the leader as prices set a fresh 19-month low this week. Crude prices dipped below $60.00 overnight and now the next downside price objective for the crude oil bears is to challenge major psychological support at $50.00 a barrel. My bias is that at some point in the coming months there will be some very good buying opportunities for many commodity markets that will have been beaten down too far. NOTE: For those of you wishing to contact me, you need to email me at this email address: jim@jimwyckoff.com I do not regularly check blog feedback. I only check my email regularly. Those who want the “Trading Lingo” feature need to email me at the above address.–Jim

U.S. STOCK INDEXES

The U.S. stock indexes are lower in early morning trading today. The bears still have the near-term technical advantage in the indexes, even though market bottoms may be in place.

December S&P 500: The shorter-term moving averages (4-, 9- and 18-day) are neutral early today. The 4-day moving average is below the 9-day and 18-day. The 9-day is above the 18-day moving average. Short-term oscillators (RSI, slow stochastics) are bearish early today. Today, shorter-term technical support comes in at last week’s low of 897.00 and then at 875.00. Sell stops likely reside just under those levels. Upside resistance for active traders today is located at the overnight high of 926.90 and then at 950.00. Buy stops are likely located just above those levels. Wyckoff’s Intra-day Market Rating: 4.0

Today’s key near-term Fibonacci support/resistance level: 894.00.

PIVOT POINT LEVELS FOR DECEMBER S&P 500:

Pivot:————- 929.95
1st Support:——– 897.60
2nd Support:——– 873.65
1st Resistance:—– 953.90
2nd Resistance:—– 986.25

December Nasdaq Index: The shorter-term moving averages (4- 9-and 18-day) are neutral early today. The 4-day moving average is below the 9-day and 18-day. The 9-day average is above the 18-day. Short-term oscillators (RSI, slow stochastics) are bearish early today. Shorter-term technical support is located at 1,220.00. Sell stops likely reside just below that level, and then more sell stops are likely located just below technical support at 1,200.00. On the upside, short-term resistance is seen at the overnight high of 1,261.50 and then at 1,275.00. Buy stops are likely located just above those levels. Wyckoff’s Intra-Day Market Rating: 4.0

Today’s key near-term Fibonacci support/resistance level: 1,231.00

PIVOT POINT LEVELS FOR DECEMBER NASDAQ:

Pivot:———— 1,270.85
1st Support:—— 1,220.70
2nd Support:—— 1,184.85
1st Resistance:— 1,306.70
2nd Resistance:— 1,356.85

December Dow: Sell stops likely reside just below support at 8,700 and then more stops just below support at 8,600. Buy stops likely reside just above shorter-term technical resistance at 8,900 and then just above resistance at 9,000. Shorter-term moving averages are neutral early today, as the 4-day moving average is below the 9-day and 18-day. The 9-day moving average is above the 18-day moving average. Shorter-term oscillators (RSI, slow stochastics) are neutral to bearish today. Wyckoff’s Intra-Day Market Rating: 4.0

Today’s key near-term Fibonacci support/resistance level: 8,777

PIVOT POINT LEVELS FOR DECEMBER DOW:

Pivot:———— 8,921
1st Support:—— 8,706
2nd Support:—— 8,526
1st Resistance:— 9,101
2nd Resistance:— 9,316

U.S. TREASURY BONDS AND NOTES

U.S. T-Bonds and T-Notes futures are firmer early today, amid the weakness in the U.S. stock indexes in early trading.

December U.S. T-Bonds: Shorter-term moving averages (4- 9- 18-day) are bullish early today. The 4-day moving average is above the 9-day and 18-day. The 9-day is above the 18-day moving average. Oscillators (RSI, slow stochastics) are bullish early today. Shorter-term technical support lies at the overnight low of 117 18/32 and then at 117 even. Sell stops likely reside just below those levels. Shorter-term technical resistance lies at the overnight high of 118 6/32 and then at 118 16/32. Buy stops likely reside just above those levels. Wyckoff’s Intra-Day Market Rating: 6.0

Today’s key near-term Fibonacci support/resistance level: 117 4/32

PIVOT POINT LEVELS FOR DECEMBER T-BONDS:

Pivot:———– 116 27/32
1st Support:—– 115 31/32 2nd Support:—– 114 11/32
1st Resistance:– 118 15/32
2nd Resistance:– 119 11/32

December U.S. T-Notes: Shorter-term oscillators (RSI, slow stochastics) are neutral to bullish early today. Buy stops likely reside just above shorter-term technical resistance at 116.00.0 and then at 116.16.0. Shorter-term moving averages are bullish early today. The 4-day moving average is above the 9-day. The 9-day is above the 18-day moving average. Sell stop orders are likely located just below support at the overnight low of 115.15.0 and then at 115.00.0. Wyckoff’s Intra Day Market Rating: 6.0

Today’s key near-term Fibonacci support/resistance level: 114.26.0

PIVOT POINT LEVELS FOR DECEMBER T-NOTES:

Pivot:———– 115 6/32
1st Support:—– 114 20/32 2nd Support:—– 113 27/32
1st Resistance:– 115 31/32
2nd Resistance:– 116 17/32

CURRENCIES

The December U.S. dollar index is firmer in early trading today. Slow stochastics for the dollar index are neutral early today. The dollar index finds shorter-term technical resistance at the overnight high of 86.87 and then at 86.94. Shorter-term support is seen at the overnight low of 86.18 and then at 86.00. Today’s key near-term Fibonacci support/resistance level: 85.59. Wyckoff’s Intra Day Market Rating: 5.5

The December Euro is weaker in early electronic trading. Euro finds sell stop orders are likely located just below technical support at the overnight low of 1.2650 and then just below support at 1.2600. Shorter-term technical resistance for the Euro is seen at the overnight high of 1.2779 and then at 1.2800. Buy stops likely reside just above those levels. Slow stochastics for the Euro are neutral early today. Today’s key near-term Fibonacci support/resistance level: 1.2818. Wyckoff’s Intra Day Market Rating: 5.0

GOLD

Gold is weaker in early dealings today. For December gold, shorter-term technical resistance is seen at $750.00 and then at $761.30. Buy stops likely reside just above those levels. Sell stops likely reside just below support at the overnight low of $735.20 and then at $725.00. Today’s key near-term Fibonacci support/resistance level: $741.00. Wyckoff’s Intra-Day Market Rating: 4.0

CRUDE OIL

Crude oil prices are solidly lower early today. Bears are still in near-term technical control. In December crude, look for buy stops to reside just above resistance at $61.00 and then just above resistance at $62.00. Look for sell stops just below technical support at $59.00 and then more sell stops just below support at $58.00. Today’s key near-term Fibonacci support/resistance level: $64.05. Wyckoff’s Intra-Day Market Rating: 4.0

GRAINS

Prices were weaker in overnight trading, on bearish key “outside markets”–crude oil prices are lower and the U.S. dollar is firmer. The U.S. stock indexes are also lower, which is bearish for grains, too. Grains continue to be held hostage by the outside markets.