S&P 500 Composite (SPX, 1,158.06 ) consolidated gains on Thursday 10/7/10, easing lower by 1.91 points or 0.16%. Volume slowed again, which is typical of mild consolidation. Although some of the technical momentum indicators have not confirmed Tuesday’s 5-month high in the SPX, nevertheless, it seems clear that the absolute price of SPX is in a 5-week uptrend. Since actual price is the most important technical indicator, we assume that the bulls are in control until proved otherwise. The stock market’s reaction to Nonfarm Payrolls at 8:30 a.m. on Friday could offer additional clues as to underlying strength for the near term.
. . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . .

Spotlight on event stocks: Here is a stock screen I designed to pick out potential event stocks, both Bullish and Bearish. Sometimes, stocks with large changes in price and volume are revealed to be deal stocks, sooner or later, or are the subject of some other extraordinary events, positive or negative.

Bullish Stocks: Rising Price and Rising Volume
Ranked by Price Change * Volume Change
% Price Change, Symbol, Name
11.50% , ADBE , ADOBE SYS
6.73% , BMC.O , BMC SOFTWARE
2.38% , KWT , Solar Energy MV, KWT
7.41% , DDS , DILLARD STK A
3.23% , DYN , DYNEGY
9.10% , JCP , JC PENNEY
4.67% , PLD , PROLOGIS TRUST
4.10% , RFMD , RF Micro Devices Inc
3.81% , LTD , LIMITED BRANDS
3.73% , FO , FORTUNE BRANDS
0.85% , MTK , Technology MS sT, MTK
0.24% , FDV , Value 40 Large Low P/E FT DB, FDV
7.60% , PWER , POWER ONE
1.62% , CEG , CONSTELL ENERGY
1.29% , PSI , Semiconductors, PSI
1.65% , MCO , MOODYS CORP
2.50% , JWN , NORDSTROM
2.19% , TNB , THOMAS & BETTS
0.35% , IGM , Technology GS, IGM
1.16% , PLL , PALL
1.97% , CHKP , Check Point Software Technologies Ltd
1.07% , PSJ , Software, PSJ
0.85% , GENZ , GENZYME
2.20% , INTU , INTUIT
1.12% , ABC , AMERISOURCEBERGN
1.00% , EMN , EASTMAN CHEM
1.34% , GNTX , Gentex Corporation
1.32% , DOV , DOVER
2.30% , MU.O , MICRON TECH
0.86% , VIA , VIACOM INC. (New)
0.80% , PWT , Growth SmallCap Dynamic PS, PWT
0.70% , IAH , Internet Architecture H, IAH
0.19% , IYC , Consumer Cyclical DJ, IYC
0.19% , ADRD , Developed 100 BLDRS, ADRD
2.25% , ASH , ASHLAND
0.99% , AET , AETNA
0.28% , VCR , Consumer D. VIPERs, VCR
0.51% , MAS , MASCO
0.81% , PBW , WilderHill Clean Energy PS, PBW
0.70% , TIF , TIFFANY

Bearish Stocks: Falling Price and Rising Volume
Ranked by Price Change * Volume Change
% Price Change, Symbol, Name
-14.07% , CTXS , CITRIX SYSTEMS
-2.82% , IGV , Software, IGV
-5.03% , MTB , M&T BANK
-3.18% , IIH , Internet Infrastructure H, IIH
-7.66% , RHT , Red Hat Inc.
-5.69% , TDC , Teradata Corporation, TDC
-5.91% , BHH , Internet B2B H, BHH
-4.23% , PXQ , Networking, PXQ
-6.32% , NTAP , NETWK APPLIANCE
-1.32% , PSI , Semiconductors, PSI
-4.49% , CAR , Avis Budget Group, Inc. (CAR)
-3.19% , UNH , UNITEDHEALTH GRP
-1.50% , JKH , MidCap Growth iS M, JKH
-3.48% , EMC , EMC
-0.48% , UTH , Utilities H, UTH
-0.42% , RPV , Value S&P 500, RPV
-4.77% , NVDA , NVIDIA
-3.36% , RIMM , RESEARCH IN MOTION LTD
-2.52% , T , AT&T Corp., T
-2.99% , NIHD , NII Holdings, Inc.
-2.91% , ERIC.O , LM Ericsson Telephone Company
-2.43% , XLNX , XILINX
-1.21% , PST , 200% Short Bond 7-10 Yr T, PST
-2.14% , CECO , CAREER EDUCATION CORP
-1.00% , PWT , Growth SmallCap Dynamic PS, PWT
-3.46% , CI , CIGNA
-2.25% , JNY , JONES APPAREL
-4.44% , LXK , LEXMARK INTL STK A
-0.89% , EWD , Sweden Index, EWD
-2.40% , TBT , 200% Short US T Bond, TBT
-0.63% , RWR , REIT Wilshire, RWR
-0.77% , IDX , Indonesia MV, IDX
-3.14% , QLGC , QLOGIC
-0.90% , FMCN , Focus Media, FMCN
-1.46% , FLEX , Flextronics International Ltd
-1.49% , CAH , CARDINAL HEALTH
-2.70% , DISH , EchoStar Communications
-1.15% , NYT , NY TIMES STK A
-0.24% , BDH , Broadband H, BDH
-1.65% , WLP , WELLPOINT HEALTH

9 major U.S. stock sectors ranked in order of long-term relative strength:

Consumer Discretionary (XLY) Bullish, Over Weight. The Relative Strength Ratio (XLY/SPY) rose to another new 3-month high on 9/28/10 and remains bullish. The Ratio remains above both SMAs and the 50-day SMA remains above the 200-day SMA. Absolute price rose to a new 4-month high on 10/5/10 and remains bullish, with the rising 50-day SMA above the rising 200-day SMA. Support 32.66, 31.70, 29.80, 28.64, 28.21, and 26.62. Resistance 34.39, 36.13, 38.25 and 39.09.

Industrial (XLI) Bullish, Over Weight. The Relative Strength Ratio (XLI/SPY) rose above 5-month highs on 10/6/10 and remains bullish. Absolute price also rose above 5-month highs on 10/6/10 and remains bullish. Support 30.79, 30.51, 30.32, 29.77, and 27.67. Resistance 33.04, 35.00, and 36.16.

Technology (XLK) Neutral, Market Weight. The Relative Strength Ratio (XLK/SPY) turned bullish on 9/27/10 as the 50-day SMA crossed above the 200-day SMA. Absolute price of XLK rose above 4-month highs on 9/30/10 and remains neutral, with the 50-day SMA below the 200-day SMA. Support 22.68, 22.53, 21.60, 20.01, and 19.51. Resistance 23.37, 24.16, 24.68, and 25.69.

Materials (XLB) Neutral, Market Weight. The Relative Strength Ratio (XLB/SPY) crossed back below its rising 50-day SMA on 10/710, thereby turning neutral again. Absolute price rose above 5-month highs on 10/6/10 and remains bullish. Support 32.36, 29.88, 29.43, and 27.67. Resistance 34.80, 35.47, and 37.56.

Consumer Staples (XLP) Neutral, Market Weight. The Relative Strength Ratio (XLP/SPY) remains neutral, consolidating gains between its 50-day and 200-day SMAs. Absolute price rose to a new 5-month high on 9/30/10 and remains bullish. Support 27.76, 27.63, 27.46, 26.34, 25.30, and 24.95. Resistance 28.28, 28.75, 29.29 and 30.29.

Utilities (XLU) Neutral, Market Weight. The Relative Strength Ratio (XLU/SPY) fell to a 3-month low on 9/21/10 and remains neutral. Absolute price of XLU rose to a new 10-month high on 10/5/10 and remains bullish, with the rising 50-day SMA above the rising 200-day SMA. Support 31.27, 30.76, 30.15, 29.66, 27.91, 27.44, and 25.76. Resistance 32.08.

Energy (XLE) Neutral, Market Weight. The Relative Strength Ratio (XLE/SPY) has recovered somewhat from its 3-month low set on 9/17/10 and is technically neutral. Longer term, the ratio has been bearish most of the time since peaking more than 2 years ago on 7/1/08. Absolute price rose above 5-month highs on 10/6/10 and remains neutral, with the rising 50-day SMA below the rising 200-day SMA. Price peaked at 62.30 on 4/26/10. Support 55.68, 53.22, 50.33, 48.56, 46.16, and 43.66. Resistance 58.11, 59.84, 62.30, 62.73, 69.95, and 78.10.

Health Care (XLV) Bearish, Under Weight. The Relative Strength Ratio (XLV/SPY) fell below 1-month lows on 10/6/10 and remains bearish, as it has been most of the time since peaking on 2/23/09. Absolute price of XLV remains neutral. Price peaked at 33.16 on 1/20/10. Support 30.19, 29.87, 28.00, 27.49. Resistance 30.88, 32.05, 32.18, 32.42, 32.69, 33.16, 33.37 and 33.74.

Financial (XLF) Bearish, Under Weight. The Relative Strength Ratio (XLF/SPY) fell to a new 17-month low on 9/29/10 and remains bearish. Absolute price of XLF is neutral, below its 200-day SMA and with the 50-day SMA below the 200-day SMA. XLF has been bearish most days after peaking at 17.12 on 4/15/10. Support 13.29 and 13.08. Resistance 15.09, 15.67, 16.13, 16.90, 17.12, 17.16, and 17.87.
. . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . .

Emerging Markets Stocks ETF (EEM) Relative Strength Ratio (EEM/SPY) rose further above 7-year highs on 10/4/10, again confirming a secular (major) bullish trend. Absolute price rose above 2-year highs to confirm RS.

Foreign Stocks ETF (EFA) Relative Strength Ratio (EFA/SPY) rose above 8-month highs on 10/6/10 and remains bullish, with the rising 50-day SMA above the falling 200-day SMA. Absolute price rose above 5-month highs on 10/6/10 but remains technically neutral, with the rising 50-day SMA slightly below the falling 200-day SMA.

NASDAQ Composite/S&P 500 Relative Strength Ratio has been technically neutral most of the time since peaking on 5/17/10. The 50-day SMA remains below the 200-day SMA.

The Largest Cap S&P 100/S&P 500 Relative Strength Ratio (OEX/SPX) fell further below 3-month lows on 9/30/10. The ratio has been trending lower since 8/3/10. Longer term, big caps have been relatively out of favor for more than 10 years, since 3/29/2000.

The Small Cap Russell 2000 Index/Large Cap Relative Strength Ratio (IWM/SPY) rose further above 2-month highs on 1/10/10 but remains technically neutral, with the rising 50-day SMA moderately below the rising 200-day SMA.

The S&P MidCap 400/Large Cap Relative Strength Ratio (MDY/SPY) rose above 15-year highs on 9/30/10 and remains bullish. Absolute price rose above 5-month highs on 10/5/10 and remains bullish, with the rising 50-day SMA above the rising 200-day SMA.

Crude Oil nearest futures contract rose above 5-month highs on 10/7/10 but reversed to close sharply lower. After a strong 2-week advance, some correction would be normal. Longer term, Oil has been consolidating more or less sideways/neutral in a choppy trading range since topping at 87.15 on 5/3/10. Support 72.63, 70.76, 70.35, 69.51, 68.59, 67.15, 65.05, and 64.24. Resistance 84.43, 84.55, 87.15, 90.51, 98.65, and 102.84.

Gold nearest futures contract rose above previous all-time highs again on 10/7/10 but reversed to close sharply lower. After a 9-week advance, some correction would be normal.. The secular trend remains bullish. Support 1297.0, 1274.8, 1270.5, 1232.4, 1210.9, 1191.5, 1155.6, 1124.3, 1120.9, 1084.8, 1045.2, 1026.9, and 989.3. Resistance: none.

Gold Mining Stocks ETF (GDX) Relative Strength Ratio (relative to the Gold bullion ETF, GDX/GLD) rose above 8-month highs on 9/22/10, signaling a bullish trend.

Silver/Gold Ratio rose further above 11-month highs on 10/6/10, again confirming a bullish trend. Silver has outperformed Gold significantly since 8/20/10.

Copper nearest futures contract price rose above 2-year highs on 10/6/10, confirming a major uptrend. Strength in Copper suggests confidence about prospects for the world economy, while weakness in Copper suggests doubts. Support 3.1775, 2.9285, 2.8555, 2.8445, and 2.72. Resistance 3.68, 3.795, 4.0825, and 4.27.

U.S. Treasury Bond nearest futures contract price rose above 4-day highs on 10/6/10 and rose above 4-week highs on 9/28/10. The short-term trend appears to be up. The Bond rose to its highest level in 19-months on 8/25/10, again confirming that the major trend remained bullish. Support 132.09, 131.21, 129.05, 126.01, 125.07, 124.19, 123.03, 121.28, 119.26, 118.24, 118.12, 115.15, 114.06. 113.04, and 112.15. Resistance 135.19, 136.31, 137.31, and 142.31.

Junk/Investment-Grade Corporate Bonds Relative Strength Ratio (JNK/LQD) has been technically neutral to negative much of the time since peaking on 1/8/10. The falling 50-day SMA remains below the falling 200-day SMA.

U.S. Treasury Inflation Protected / U.S. Treasury 7-10 Year Relative Strength Ratio (TIP/IEF) has been RELATIVELY bearish most of the time since peaking on 1/8/10—even though absolute price of TIP has moved higher. This implies that fixed-income investors have been choosing less inflation protection.

The U.S. dollar nearest futures contract price fell below 9-month lows on 10/7/10, again confirming a bearish trend for the short term and intermediate term. Long term, USD may be in a secular downtrend and merely consolidating losses since bottoming at 70.805 in March 2008. Support 76.74 and 75.90, 74.27, and 70.805. Resistance 82.335, 83.315, 83.64, 83.96, 85.36, 86.71, 88.80, 89.22, 89.71, and 92.53.

Advisory Service Sentiment: There were 45.6% Bulls versus 28.3% Bears as of 10/6/10, according to the weekly Investors Intelligence survey of stock market newsletter advisors. The Bull/Bear ratio rose to 1.61, up from 0.78 on 9/1/10. That 0.78 was the lowest level of bullish sentiment in 17 months, since 3/25/09. Previously, the ratio had fallen substantially from its peak at 3.36 set on 1/13/10, which was the highest bullish sentiment in 6 years. The 20-year range is 0.41 to 3.74, the median is 1.53, and the mean is 1.60.

VIX Fear Index plunged to 21 in September from 48 in May. Hovering in the low 20s, VIX remains at the lower end of its 5-month range. A low and falling VIX suggests increasing bullish complacency. VIX is a market estimate of expected constant 30-day volatility, calculated by weighting S&P 500 Index CBOE option bid/ask quotes spanning a wide range of strike prices for the two nearest expiration dates.

The Dow Theory suggests a Primary Tide Bull Market, in my interpretation. The Dow Theory last confirmed a Bullish Major Trend on 4/26/10, when both the Dow-Jones Industrial Average and the Dow-Jones Transportation Average closed above their closing price highs of the previous 18 months. The Dow Theory signaled the current Primary Tide Bull Market on 7/23/09, when both the Dow-Jones Industrial Average and the Dow-Jones Transportation Average closed above their closing price highs of the previous 6 months. That 7/23/09 bullish signal reversed the previous bearish signal: the two Averages signaled a Primary Tide Bear Market on 11/21/07, when both Averages closed below their closing price lows of August 2007. On Friday 9/24/10, the Dow-Jones Industrial Average rose to a new 4-month closing price high and on Tuesday 9/28/10 the Dow-Jones Transportation Average confirmed by making a new 4-month closing price high. This signals an intermediate-term Secondary uptrend, according to The Dow Theory.

S&P 500 Composite (SPX, 1,158.06 ) consolidated gains on Thursday 10/7/10, easing lower by 1.91 points or 0.16%. Volume slowed again, which is typical of mild consolidation. Although some of the technical momentum indicators have not confirmed Tuesday’s 5-month high in the SPX, nevertheless, it seems clear that the absolute price of SPX is in a 5-week uptrend. Since actual price is the most important technical indicator, we assume that the bulls are in control until proved otherwise. The stock market’s reaction to Nonfarm Payrolls at 8:30 a.m. on Friday could offer additional clues as to underlying strength for the near term.

S&P 500 Cash Index Potential Resistance
1576.09, high of 10/11/2007
1552.76, high of 10/31/2007
1523.57, high of 12/11/2007
1498.85, high of 12/26/2007
1440.24, high of 5/19/2008
1406.32, high of 5/29/2008
1381.50, Fibonacci 78.6% of 2007-2009 range
1366.59, high of 6/17/2008
1335.63, high of 6/25/2008
1313.15, high of 8/11/2008
1274.42, high of 9/8/2008
1255.09, high of 9/12/2008
1238.81, Fibonacci 78.6% of 1,576.09 high
1228.74, Fibonacci 61.8% of 2007-2009 range
1220.03, high of 9/25/2008
1219.80, high of 4/26/2010
1173.57, high of 5/13/2010
1,163.87, high of 10/7/10

S&P 500 Cash Index Potential Support
1,131.87, low of 10/4/10
1122.79, low of 9/23/2010
1114.63, low of 9/15/2010
1110.88, low of 9/10/2010
1091.15, low of 9/7/2010
1039.70, low of 8/27/10
1039.31, Fibonacci 23.6% of June-Aug. 2010 range
1010.91, low of 7/1/2010
1008.55, Fibonacci 38.2% of 2009-2010 range
991.97, low of 9/2/2009
978.51, low of 8/17/2009
956.23, high of 6/11/2009
943.29, Gann 50.0% of 2009-2010 range
878.04, Fibonacci 61.8% of 2009-2010 range
874.17, Gann 62.5% of 2009-2010 range
869.32, low of 7/8/2009
805.17, Gann 75.0% of 2009-2010 range
785.13, Fibonacci 78.6% of 2009-2010 range
666.79, intraday low of 3/6/2009

One-Day Ranking of Major ETFs, Ranked from Strongest to Weakest of the Day:
% Price Change, ETF Name, Symbol

0.86% Agriculture DB PS, DBA
0.81% WilderHill Clean Energy PS, PBW
0.59% Biotech SPDR, XBI
0.47% Consumer Discretionary SPDR, XLY
0.43% Semiconductor SPDR, XSD
0.39% Japan Index, EWJ
0.38% Semiconductor iS GS, IGW
0.38% Sweden Index, EWD
0.37% Growth LargeCap NASDAQ 100, QQQQ
0.32% Realty Cohen & Steers, ICF
0.31% Pacific VIPERs, VPL
0.30% Small Cap EAFE MSCI iS, SCZ
0.28% REIT VIPERs, VNQ
0.26% Technology DJ US, IYW
0.25% Info Tech VIPERs, VGT
0.22% Real Estate US DJ, IYR
0.20% Bond, High-Yield Corporate, HYG
0.20% Health Care SPDR, XLV
0.19% Utilities SPDR, XLU
0.18% Value SmallCap S&P 600, RZV
0.18% Preferred Stock iS, PFF
0.17% Bond Muni ATM-Free S&P iS, MUB
0.15% REIT Wilshire, RWR
0.15% Utilities VIPERs, VPU
0.11% EMU Europe Index, EZU
0.10% Bond, 10 Year Treasury, IEF
0.08% Bond, 1-3 Year Treasury, SHY
0.08% Financial Preferred, PGF
0.07% Networking, IGN
0.06% Italy Index, EWI
0.05% Bond EmrgMkt JPM iS, EMB
0.05% Value MidCap Russell, IWS
0.05% Netherlands Index, EWN
0.05% Bond, Aggregate, AGG
0.04% France Index, EWQ
0.03% Growth SmallCap VIPERs, VBK
0.02% Growth MidCap 400 B, IJK
0.02% Value EAFE MSCI, EFV
0.02% Global 100, IOO
0.00% Technology SPDR, XLK
0.00% Hong Kong Index, EWH
0.00% Austria Index, EWO
-0.02% MidCap Russell, IWR
-0.03% Bond, Corp, LQD
-0.04% MidCap S&P 400 iS, IJH
-0.04% MidCap S&P 400 SPDRs, MDY
-0.05% LargeCap Blend S&P=Weight R, RSP
-0.07% Value S&P 500 B, IVE
-0.08% Growth MidCap Russell, IWP
-0.08% Value VIPERs, VTV
-0.09% LargeCap Blend Russell 3000, IWV
-0.09% S&P 500 iS LargeCap Blend, IVV
-0.10% Growth VIPERs, VUG
-0.11% Growth SmallCap R 2000, IWO
-0.11% LargeCap 1000 R, IWB
-0.11% Bond Ex-US Treas, BWX
-0.12% S&P 500 SPDRs LargeCap Blend, SPY
-0.12% Transportation Av DJ, IYT
-0.13% LargeCap VIPERs, VV
-0.13% Blend Total Market VIPERs, VTI
-0.13% Growth 1000 Russell, IWF
-0.14% Growth BARRA Small Cap 600, IJT
-0.15% LargeCap Blend S&P 100, OEF
-0.15% DIAMONDS (DJIA), DIA
-0.17% Value MidCap S&P 400 B, IJJ
-0.17% Value SmallCap S&P 600 B, IJS
-0.18% Germany Index, EWG
-0.18% Europe 350 S&P Index, IEV
-0.18% Value 1000 Russell, IWD
-0.19% Spain Index, EWP
-0.19% Dividend DJ Select, DVY
-0.22% Small Cap VIPERs, VB
-0.22% Industrial SPDR, XLI
-0.23% Bond, TIPS, TIP
-0.23% Growth S&P 500/BARRA, IVW
-0.23% Dividend SPDR, SDY
-0.24% Dividend High Yield Equity PS, PEY
-0.24% Water Resources, PHO
-0.24% Australia Index, EWA
-0.25% SmallCap S&P 600, IJR
-0.26% Switzerland Index, EWL
-0.26% Microcap Russell, IWC
-0.26% Growth EAFE MSCI, EFG
-0.28% European VIPERs, VGK
-0.28% Value LargeCap Dynamic PS, PWV
-0.29% SmallCap Russell 2000, IWM
-0.31% Value SmallCap VIPERS, VBR
-0.33% Financials VIPERs, VFH
-0.33% Dividend International, PID
-0.34% EAFE Index, EFA
-0.34% Dividend Appreciation Vipers, VIG
-0.35% Consumer Staples SPDR, XLP
-0.36% Malaysia Index, EWM
-0.37% Global ex US ACWI iS, ACWX
-0.38% Financial DJ US, IYF
-0.41% Financial SPDR, XLF
-0.41% China LargeCap Growth G D H USX PS, PGJ
-0.41% United Kingdom Index, EWU
-0.42% Energy VIPERs, VDE
-0.42% Energy DJ, IYE
-0.44% Taiwan Index, EWT
-0.44% Value SmallCap Russell 2000, IWN
-0.46% Energy Global, IXC
-0.50% Energy SPDR, XLE
-0.55% Financial Services DJ, IYG
-0.59% Pacific ex-Japan, EPP
-0.65% India Earnings WTree, EPI
-0.70% Homebuilders SPDR, XHB
-0.73% Telecom DJ US, IYZ
-0.73% Belgium Index, EWK
-0.74% Indonesia MV, IDX
-0.80% Capital Markets KWB ST, KCE
-0.83% Bond, 20+ Years Treasury, TLT
-0.85% Basic Materials DJ US, IYM
-0.86% China 25 iS, FXI
-0.89% Emerging Markets, EEM
-0.89% South Korea Index, EWY
-0.93% Thailand MSCI iS, THD
-0.95% Singapore Index, EWS
-0.96% Emerging VIPERs, VWO
-0.97% Natural Resource iS GS, IGE
-1.00% Materials SPDR, XLB
-1.01% Emerging 50 BLDRS, ADRE
-1.02% Commodity Tracking, DBC
-1.03% India PS, PIN
-1.09% Gold Shares S.T., GLD
-1.17% Russia MV, RSX
-1.21% Canada Index, EWC
-1.30% Latin Am 40, ILF
-1.34% Turkey MSCI iS, TUR
-1.35% Brazil Index, EWZ
-1.41% Mexico Index, EWW
-1.46% South Africa Index, EZA
-1.81% Metals & Mining SPDR, XME
-2.08% Chile MSCI iS, ECH
-2.26% Oil, Crude, U.S. Oil Fund, USO
-2.95% Silver Trust iS, SLV