Current Long Positions (stop-losses in parentheses): NVDA (15.49), BZ (7.86), GS (166.30), BCSI (29.37), GLD (132.80), ATML (12.11), GNK (14.37), MI (6.77)
Current Short Positions (stop-losses in parentheses): None
BIAS: 42% Long
Economic Reports Due Out (Times are EST): MBA Purchase Applications (7am), Challenger Job-Cut Report (7:30am), ADP Employment Report (8:15am), ISM Non-Manufacturing Index (10am), EIA Petroleum Status Report (10:30am)
My Observations and What to Expect:
- Futures are showing moderate weakness heading into the open.
- Asian were flat/mixed, while European markets have seen heavy selling in excess of 1%.
- S&P rallied back nicely yesterday afternoon (thought still down on the day) despite being weighed down for much of the day.
- 10-day moving average and existing trend-line was never violated, not even on an intra-day basis. Even with today’s early morning, weakness, prices are not yet threatening the bullish uptrend of this market.
- 1276 is starting to provide some short-term resistance – but nothing that I would call ‘significant’ at his point.
- The more long-term trend-line dating back to 9/1 currently has support at 1230.
- Selling from the past two days isn’t overly concerning, as all time frames remain very bullish.
- One thing that I would be very careful of is the similarities between this rally, and the rally from 11/4 and the selling that occurred thereafter. If we are heading in that direction, you need to be careful about getting too heavily long in your portfolio at this point.
- Gold held its 50-day moving average yesterday, just as it had many times before dating back to mid-August. Large gap that was created, will get filled here soon, even if further downside is still in the cards.
- Any break below recent consolidation (1250 or less on the S&P) would represent a lower-low in this market.
- For the bears – Not a good job on holding down the bulls. But use the quasi-hanging man candle from yesterday, and weakness today, to put in at least a short-term top in the market. But selling needs to be substantial without the late-day rally occurring.
- For the bulls – Buy the dip as most sell-offs have been opportunities more than anything else.
Here Are The Actions I Will Be Taking:
