The following stock price indexes closed above the closing price highs of the previous 2 years, thereby confirming major bullish trends:
Dow Jones Composite Average
Dow Jones Industrial Average
Dow Jones Transportation Average
AMEX Composite
Nasdaq Composite NAS/NMS
NYSE Composite
Russell 1000
Russell 2000
Russell 3000
S&P 600 Small Caps
S&P 400 Mid Caps
S&P 100 Large Caps
S&P 500 Composite
Value Line Geometric
Wilshire Composite
NYSE and Nasdaq Cumulative Daily Advance-Decline Lines both rose above previous multi-month highs, reconfirming their preexisting bullish major trends.
CRB Index of commodity prices rose above 2-year highs, reconfirming its preexisting bullish major trend.
Crude Oil rose above 2-year highs, reconfirming its preexisting bullish major trend.
Silver rose above previous 30-year highs, reconfirming its preexisting bullish major trend for the long term.
Gold rose further above 3-week highs, reconfirming its preexisting short-term uptrend.
Copper rose above multi-year highs, reconfirming its preexisting bullish major trend.
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Spotlight on event stocks: Here is a stock screen I designed to pick out potential event stocks, both Bullish and Bearish. Sometimes, stocks with large changes in price and volume are revealed to be deal stocks, sooner or later, or are the subject of some other extraordinary events, positive or negative.
Bullish Stocks: Rising Price and Rising Volume
Ranked by Price Change * Volume Change
% Price Change, Symbol, Name
3.17% , MDP , MEREDITH
0.41% , UTH , Utilities H, UTH
1.62% , PSTL , Steel Global PS ETF, PSTL
4.74% , ROK , ROCKWELL AUTOMAT
6.37% , BAC , BANK OF AMERICA
2.06% , IGN , Networking, IGN
1.27% , EIS , Israel MSCI iS, EIS
5.14% , AM , AMER GREETINGS STK A
6.62% , S , SPRINT NEXTEL
6.64% , TIN , TEMPLE INLAND
3.41% , SNV , SYNOVUS
5.79% , MTG , MGIC INVESTMENT
4.83% , HIG , HARTFORD FINL
4.46% , NTAP , NETWK APPLIANCE
0.81% , EWO , Austria Index, EWO
5.29% , LNC , LINCOLN NATL
0.96% , IYC , Consumer Cyclical DJ, IYC
7.96% , ODP , OFFICE DEPOT
2.96% , AES , AES
4.75% , OMX , OFFICEMAX INC., OMX
3.23% , FHN , FIRST TENNESSEE
4.92% , CLF , CLIFFS NATURAL RESOURCES, CLF
3.59% , C , CITIGROUP
3.89% , ZION , ZIONS
1.33% , PXN , Nanotech Lux, PXN
1.31% , IWS , Value MidCap Russell, IWS
4.16% , ESRX , EXPRESS SCRIPTS
3.75% , MS , MORGAN STANLEY
1.77% , JKK , Growth SmallCap iS M, JKK
3.29% , GT , GOODYEAR TIRE
3.77% , SIRI , Sirius Satellite
3.98% , JBL , JABIL CIRCUIT
2.55% , SPLS , STAPLES
Bearish Stocks: Falling Price and Rising Volume
Ranked by Price Change * Volume Change
% Price Change, Symbol, Name
-2.70% , CLX , CLOROX
-3.57% , LRCX , LAM RESEARCH CORP
-3.93% , ISIL , INTERSIL CORP
-2.35% , TER , TERADYNE
-2.64% , NIHD , NII Holdings, Inc.
-1.55% , NVLS , NOVELLUS SYS
-1.54% , AZO , AUTOZONE
-3.12% , QID , Short 200% QQQ PS, QID
-1.31% , TJX , TJX
-0.49% , BHH , Internet B2B H, BHH
-1.20% , HSP , HOSPIRA
-1.01% , URBN , Urban Outfitters Inc.
-1.20% , AVY , AVERY DENNISON
-1.36% , COH , COACH
-0.86% , INTC , INTEL
-1.07% , AON , AON
-1.10% , STJ , ST JUDE MEDICAL
-1.21% , PBE , Biotech & Genome, PBE
-1.57% , KR , KROGER
-0.65% , KMB , KIMBERLY CLARK
-0.72% , CL , COLGATE
-1.94% , SDS , Short 200% S&P 500 PS, SDS
-1.12% , MON , MONSANTO
-2.61% , MZZ , Short 200% MidCap 400 PS, MZZ
-0.67% , GLW , CORNING
-0.66% , CTXS , CITRIX SYSTEMS
-1.40% , GD , GENERAL DYNAMICS
-2.03% , RDC , ROWAN COMPANIES
-1.06% , PJP , Pharmaceuticals, PJP
-0.37% , TLH , Bond 10-20 Year US Treas, TLH
-0.39% , K , KELLOGG
-0.79% , TIF , TIFFANY
-0.46% , APD , AIR PRODS & CHEM
9 major U.S. stock sectors ranked in order of long-term relative strength:
Energy (XLE) Bullish, Over Weight. The Relative Strength Ratio (XLE/SPY) rose further above 14-month highs on 12/31/10 highs, reconfirming its preexisting bullish major trend. Absolute price of XLE rose above 2-year highs on 1/3/11, reconfirming its preexisting bullish major trend. Support 65.25, 65.03, 60.96, 60.21, 57.70, 55.68, 53.22, 50.33, 48.56, 46.16, and 43.66. Resistance 69.95 and 78.10.
Materials (XLB) Bullish, Over Weight. The Relative Strength Ratio (XLB/SPY) rose above 11-month highs on 12/30/10 and remains bullish. Absolute price rose above 2-year highs on 1/3/11 and remains bullish. Support 34.20, 33.70, 32.36, 29.88, 29.43, and 27.67. Resistance 40.15 and 41.06.
Consumer Discretionary (XLY) Neutral, Market Weight. The Relative Strength Ratio (XLY/SPY) crossed below its 50-day SMA on 12/27/10, thereby turning neutral. Absolute price rose above 3-year highs on 1/3/11 and remains bullish. Support 37.29, 37.15, 36.61, 36.13, 35.32, 35.02, 34.78, 33.94, 33.11, 32.66, 31.70, 29.80, 28.64, 28.21, and 26.62. Resistance 39.09, 40.13, and 40.70.
Industrial (XLI) Bullish, Over Weight. The Relative Strength Ratio (XLI/SPY) rose above 2-year highs on 12/16/10 and remains bullish. Absolute price rose above 2-year highs on 1/3/11 and remains bullish. Support 31.82, 31.58, 30.79, 30.51, 30.32, 29.77, and 27.67. Resistance 36.16.
Technology (XLK) Neutral, Market Weight. The Relative Strength Ratio (XLK/SPY) fell below 8-week lows on 12/16/10 and turned neutral for the secondary trend. This RS ratio rose above 8-year highs on 11/3/10, which was a bullish confirmation of the primary uptrend. Absolute price of XLK rose above 2-year highs on 1/3/11 and remains bullish. Support 23.87, 23.74, 23.64, 23.56, 22.68, 22.53, 21.60, 20.01, and 19.51. Resistance 25.69.
Financial (XLF) Neutral, Market Weight. The Relative Strength Ratio (XLF/SPY) rose above its 50-day SMA on 12/8/10, thereby turning neutral. Absolute price turned bullish as of 12/22/10 when the rising 50-day SMA crossed above the rising 200-day SMA. Support 15.39, 15.08, 14.36, 14.25, 14.20, 13.29, and 13.08. Resistance 16.90, 17.12, 17.16, and 17.87.
Consumer Staples (XLP) Bearish, Under Weight. The Relative Strength Ratio (XLP/SPY) fell further below 8-month lows on 1/3/11 and remains bearish. Absolute price rose above 2-year highs on 12/16/10 and remains bullish. Support 29.23, 29.10, 28.22, 28.04, 27.76, 27.63, 27.46, 26.34, 25.30, and 24.95. Resistance 30.29.
Health Care (XLV) Bearish, Under Weight. The Relative Strength Ratio (XLV/SPY) fell below 2-year lows on 1/3/11 and remains bearish, as it has been most of the time since peaking on 2/23/09. Absolute price rose above 8-month highs on 1/3/11 and remains bullish.. Support 30.14, 30.11, 29.87, 28.00, 27.49. Resistance 32.05, 32.18, 32.42, 32.69, 33.16, 33.37 and 33.74.
Utilities (XLU) Bearish, Under Weight. The Relative Strength Ratio (XLU/SPY) fell below 5-year lows on 1/3/11 and remains bearish. Absolute price of XLU rose above its 50-day SMA on 1/3/11 and is technically bullish. Support 30.51, 29.66, 27.91, 27.44, and 25.76. Resistance 32.11 and 32.40.
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Emerging Markets Stocks ETF (EEM) Relative Strength Ratio (EEM/SPY) fell further below 4-month lows on 12/28/10 and remains neutral.
Foreign Stocks ETF (EFA) Relative Strength Ratio (EFA/SPY) broke down below 5-month lows on 11/30/10 and remains neutral.
NASDAQ Composite/S&P 500 Relative Strength Ratio rose above its 50-day SMA on 1/3/11, turning bullish. The ratio rose above 9-year highs on 11/26/10, confirming a bullish Primary uptrend for the longer-term.
The Largest Cap S&P 100/S&P 500 Relative Strength Ratio (OEX/SPX) fell below 28-year lows on 12/3/10. This RS Ratio has been trending lower since 8/3/10. Longer term, big caps have been relatively out of favor for more than 10 years, since 3/29/2000.
The Small Cap Russell 2000 Index/Large Cap Relative Strength Ratio (IWM/SPY) rose above 20-year highs on 12/21/10 and remains bullish. Absolute price closed above 2-year closing price highs on 12/27/10 and remains bullish.
The S&P MidCap 400/Large Cap Relative Strength Ratio (MDY/SPY) rose above 15-year highs on 12/17/10 and remains bullish. Absolute price closed above 2-year closing price highs on 1/3/11, and remains bullish.
CRB Index of commodity prices rose above 2-year highs on 1/3/11, thereby reconfirming its preexisting bullish major trend.
Crude Oil nearest futures contract price rose above 2-year highs on 1/3/11, thereby reconfirming its preexisting bullish major trend. Support 87.43, 86.83, 83.55, 80.28, 80.06, 79.84, 79.25, 78.86, 72.63, 70.76, 70.35, 69.51, 68.59, 67.15, 65.05, and 64.24. Resistance 98.65 and 102.84.
Gold nearest futures contract price rose further above 3-week highs on 1/3/11, confirming a short-term uptrend. Gold rose above previous all-time highs and confirmed a bullish major trend on 12/7/10. Support 1361.6, 1352.6, 1329.0, 1325.5, 1317.5, 1297.0, 1274.8, 1270.5, 1232.4, 1210.9, 1191.5, and 1155.6. Resistance: 1432.5.
Gold Mining Stocks ETF (GDX) Relative Strength Ratio (relative to the Gold bullion ETF, GDX/GLD) has turned neutral since peaking on 12/6/10.
Silver nearest futures contract price rose above previous 30-year highs on 1/3/11, thereby confirming its preexisting bullish major trend for the long term.
Silver/Gold Ratio rose above 3-year highs on 12/31/10, again confirming a bullish trend. Silver has outperformed Gold substantially since 8/20/10.
Copper nearest futures contract price rose above multi-year highs on 1/3/11, thereby reconfirming its preexisting bullish major trend. Strength in Copper suggests confidence about prospects for the world economy, while weakness in Copper suggests doubts. Support 4.205, 4.08, 3.9795, 3.6065, 3.3930, 3.1775, 2.9285, 2.8555, 2.8445, and 2.72. Resistance: none.
U.S. Treasury Bond nearest futures contract price surrendered most of Friday’s gain and now looks uncertain for the short term. The bond contract fell below the lows of the previous 7 months on 12/15/10, confirming a bearish major trend. Support 118.21, 118.12, 115.15, 114.06, 113.04, and 112.15. Resistance 121.20, 122.02, 123.26, 128.00 129.14, 129.27, 132.26, 133.00, 135.12, 135.19, 136.31, 137.31, and 142.31.
Junk/Investment-Grade Corporate Bonds Relative Strength Ratio (JNK/LQD) rose above 8-month highs on 12/28/10 and remains bullish. JNK absolute price rose above 6-week highs on 12/27/10, which is bullish for the short term. Price rose above 2-year highs on 11/4/10 and remains bullish for the longer term.
U.S. Treasury Inflation Protected / U.S. Treasury 7-10 Year Relative Strength Ratio (TIP/IEF) has firmed up moderately since making a low on 8/24/10, even as absolute price of TIP has declined. A rising RS ratio implies that fixed-income investors have been selling inflation protected Notes at a relatively more subdued pace compared to the U.S. Treasury 7-10 Year Note (IEF) over the past 4 months.
The U.S. dollar nearest futures contract price fell below 5-week lows on 12/31/10, reconfirming a short-term downtrend. USD may have found resistance near its 200-day SMA, which stands near chart resistance at 81.525 to 82.02. Longer term, USD fell below 11-month lows on 11/3/10, thereby confirming a bearish long-term price trend. Support 78.01, 75.23, 74.27, and 70.80. Resistance 81.185, 81.525, 81.935, 82.02, 83.64, 84.73, 85.36, 86.71, 88.80, 89.22, 89.71, and 92.53.
Advisory Service Sentiment: There were 55.6% Bulls versus 20.0% Bears as of 12/29/10, according to the weekly Investors Intelligence survey of stock market newsletter advisors. The Bull/Bear ratio stands at 2.78, which is nearly two standard deviations above the long-term, 20-year mean. This is not overly excessive bullish sentiment in the second year of a bull market. Bullish Sentiment tends to rise in November and December every year. The ratio was as high as it is now or higher in Decembers of each year 2003, 2004, 2005, and 2006, and none of these “high” readings led to bear markets. The 20-year range is 0.41 to 3.74, the median is 1.54, and the mean is 1.61.
VIX Fear Index fell below 8-month lows to 15.40 on 12/23/10, reflecting diminishing fear among options players. VIX is near its 3-year low of 15.23 set on 4/12/10. Before we take the current level of VIX as a sell signal, however, we might consider that VIX was as low as 9.89 on 1/24/07, nearly 10 months before the final tops in the price indexes. VIX is a market estimate of expected constant 30-day volatility, calculated by weighting S&P 500 Index CBOE option bid/ask quotes spanning a wide range of strike prices for the two nearest expiration dates.
The Dow Theory reconfirmed a Primary Tide Bull Market as of 1/3/11, when both the Dow-Jones Industrial Average and the Dow-Jones Transportation Average closed above closing price highs of the previous 2-years. The Dow Theory originally signaled the current Primary Tide Bull Market on 7/23/09, when both the Dow-Jones Industrial Average and the Dow-Jones Transportation Average closed above their closing price highs of the previous 6 months. While other Dow Theorists were fooled by the big downside Secondary Reaction in May and June 2010 and called a “Bear Market”, my interpretation of the Dow Theory has been steadily Bullish on the Primary Tide Trend every day since 7/23/09.
S&P 500 Composite (SPX, 1,271.89) rose above highs of the previous 2-years on 1/3/11, thereby confirming the Dow Theory Bullish Primary Tide Trend.
S&P 500 Cash Index Potential Resistance
1576.09, high of 10/11/2007
1552.76, high of 10/31/2007
1523.57, high of 12/11/2007
1498.85, high of 12/26/2007
1440.24, high of 5/19/2008
1406.32, high of 5/29/2008
1381.50, Fibonacci 78.6% of 2007-2009 range
1366.59, high of 6/17/2008
1335.63, high of 6/25/2008
1313.15, high of 8/11/2008
S&P 500 Cash Index Potential Support
1251.48, low of 12/27/10
1238.81, Fibonacci 78.6% of 1,576.09 high
1235.05, high of 12/7/10
1232.85, low of 12/16/10
1228.74, Fibonacci 61.8% of 2007-2009 range
1173.00, low of 11/16/10
1171.70, low of 10/27/10
1166.74, low of 10/20/10
1159.71, low of 10/19/10
1,151.41, low of 10/7/10
1,131.87, low of 10/4/10
1122.79, low of 9/23/2010
1114.63, low of 9/15/2010
1110.88, low of 9/10/2010
1091.15, low of 9/7/2010
1039.70, low of 8/27/10
1039.31, Fibonacci 23.6% of June-Aug. 2010 range
1010.91, low of 7/1/2010
1008.55, Fibonacci 38.2% of 2009-2010 range
991.97, low of 9/2/2009
978.51, low of 8/17/2009
956.23, high of 6/11/2009
943.29, Gann 50.0% of 2009-2010 range
878.04, Fibonacci 61.8% of 2009-2010 range
874.17, Gann 62.5% of 2009-2010 range
869.32, low of 7/8/2009
805.17, Gann 75.0% of 2009-2010 range
785.13, Fibonacci 78.6% of 2009-2010 range
666.79, intraday low of 3/6/2009
One-Day Ranking of Major ETFs, Ranked from Strongest to Weakest of the Day:
% Price Change, ETF Name, Symbol
2.33% Hong Kong Index, EWH
2.28% Value SmallCap S&P 600, RZV
2.22% Financial Services DJ, IYG
2.19% Financial SPDR, XLF
2.19% Financials VIPERs, VFH
2.09% Value SmallCap S&P 600 B, IJS
2.06% Networking, IGN
2.02% WilderHill Clean Energy PS, PBW
1.96% Realty Cohen & Steers, ICF
1.96% Metals & Mining SPDR, XME
1.93% Financial DJ US, IYF
1.86% REIT VIPERs, VNQ
1.85% SmallCap S&P 600, IJR
1.83% Value SmallCap Russell 2000, IWN
1.83% Sweden Index, EWD
1.79% REIT Wilshire, RWR
1.78% Microcap Russell, IWC
1.74% SmallCap Russell 2000, IWM
1.73% China LargeCap Growth G D H USX PS, PGJ
1.68% Growth SmallCap R 2000, IWO
1.66% Russia MV, RSX
1.66% Value SmallCap VIPERS, VBR
1.61% Growth BARRA Small Cap 600, IJT
1.58% Growth SmallCap VIPERs, VBK
1.57% Small Cap VIPERs, VB
1.56% Growth LargeCap NASDAQ 100, QQQQ
1.55% Real Estate US DJ, IYR
1.50% Homebuilders SPDR, XHB
1.49% China 25 iS, FXI
1.43% Semiconductor SPDR, XSD
1.37% Telecom DJ US, IYZ
1.33% Value MidCap S&P 400 B, IJJ
1.31% Value MidCap Russell, IWS
1.30% Capital Markets KWB ST, KCE
1.30% Thailand MSCI iS, THD
1.30% Biotech SPDR, XBI
1.24% Growth MidCap 400 B, IJK
1.23% MidCap S&P 400 SPDRs, MDY
1.23% Value S&P 500 B, IVE
1.22% Transportation Av DJ, IYT
1.18% Malaysia Index, EWM
1.18% Consumer Discretionary SPDR, XLY
1.17% Indonesia MV, IDX
1.17% Technology DJ US, IYW
1.16% Value VIPERs, VTV
1.16% Water Resources, PHO
1.14% Belgium Index, EWK
1.14% Info Tech VIPERs, VGT
1.14% MidCap S&P 400 iS, IJH
1.13% Growth MidCap Russell, IWP
1.13% Dividend High Yield Equity PS, PEY
1.13% Value 1000 Russell, IWD
1.11% Technology SPDR, XLK
1.10% France Index, EWQ
1.10% LargeCap Blend Russell 3000, IWV
1.10% India Earnings WTree, EPI
1.08% Value LargeCap Dynamic PS, PWV
1.07% MidCap Russell, IWR
1.06% India PS, PIN
1.05% Pacific VIPERs, VPL
1.04% Germany Index, EWG
1.03% S&P 500 SPDRs LargeCap Blend, SPY
1.03% Blend Total Market VIPERs, VTI
1.02% LargeCap VIPERs, VV
1.02% Small Cap EAFE MSCI iS, SCZ
1.01% LargeCap Blend S&P=Weight R, RSP
1.01% S&P 500 iS LargeCap Blend, IVV
1.00% LargeCap 1000 R, IWB
0.99% LargeCap Blend S&P 100, OEF
0.98% Emerging VIPERs, VWO
0.96% South Korea Index, EWY
0.96% Emerging Markets, EEM
0.96% Basic Materials DJ US, IYM
0.94% Growth 1000 Russell, IWF
0.94% Japan Index, EWJ
0.93% Energy VIPERs, VDE
0.93% Brazil Index, EWZ
0.93% Growth VIPERs, VUG
0.91% Health Care SPDR, XLV
0.89% Latin Am 40, ILF
0.87% Value EAFE MSCI, EFV
0.86% Mexico Index, EWW
0.85% Pacific ex-Japan, EPP
0.84% Chile MSCI iS, ECH
0.84% Global ex US ACWI iS, ACWX
0.83% Emerging 50 BLDRS, ADRE
0.82% EAFE Index, EFA
0.81% Europe 350 S&P Index, IEV
0.81% Growth S&P 500/BARRA, IVW
0.81% Materials SPDR, XLB
0.81% Canada Index, EWC
0.81% Energy Global, IXC
0.81% Austria Index, EWO
0.79% Global 100, IOO
0.77% Energy DJ, IYE
0.75% Energy SPDR, XLE
0.75% Growth EAFE MSCI, EFG
0.73% Turkey MSCI iS, TUR
0.72% Industrial SPDR, XLI
0.70% Taiwan Index, EWT
0.70% Dividend DJ Select, DVY
0.67% DIAMONDS (DJIA), DIA
0.67% Dividend Appreciation Vipers, VIG
0.65% Dividend SPDR, SDY
0.65% Singapore Index, EWS
0.65% Dividend International, PID
0.63% Utilities VIPERs, VPU
0.59% Australia Index, EWA
0.57% EMU Europe Index, EZU
0.55% Natural Resource iS GS, IGE
0.55% European VIPERs, VGK
0.54% Semiconductor iS IGW, SOXX
0.49% Utilities SPDR, XLU
0.44% Commodity Tracking, DBC
0.42% Bond EmrgMkt JPM iS, EMB
0.40% Bond, High-Yield Junk, JNK
0.39% Bond Muni ATM-Free S&P iS, MUB
0.39% Bond, Corp, LQD
0.37% Italy Index, EWI
0.24% Switzerland Index, EWL
0.19% South Africa Index, EZA
0.15% Preferred Stock iS, PFF
0.14% Consumer Staples SPDR, XLP
0.13% Oil, Crude, U.S. Oil Fund, USO
0.11% Financial Preferred, PGF
0.08% Bond, High-Yield Corporate, HYG
-0.01% Bond Treasury Short-Term iS, SHV
-0.02% Bond, 1-3 Year Treasury, SHY
-0.03% Bond Ex-US Treas, BWX
-0.11% Bond, Aggregate, AGG
-0.15% Agriculture DB PS, DBA
-0.29% United Kingdom Index, EWU
-0.31% Bond, 10 Year Treasury, IEF
-0.42% Bond, TIPS, TIP
-0.47% Netherlands Index, EWN
-0.52% Spain Index, EWP
-0.52% Gold Shares S.T., GLD
-0.66% Silver Trust iS, SLV
-0.75% Bond, 20+ Years Treasury, TLT
