Current Long Positions (stop-losses in parentheses): AIT (31.83), MENT (12.01), CERN (93.98), OI (29.94), EMN (81.03), APOL (37.66), SCSS (9.07)
Current Short Positions (stop-losses in parentheses): None
BIAS: 35% Long
Economic Reports Due Out (Times are EST): Jobless Claims (8:30am), Chicago PMI (9:45am), Pending Home Sales Index (10am), EIA Natural Gas Report (10:30am), Farm Prices (3pm)
My Observations and What to Expect:
- Futures are are up slightly.
- Jobless claims, should they beat expectations could give the market a much need boost out of this 4-day lull it has been in.
- Asian and European markets are seeing a descent amount of weakness in trading today.
- Volume continues to dry up, and will not see a pick-up until next week.
- S&P continues to hold its trend-line upwards, but is currently lacking any momentum, with the Christmas and New Year’s holidays, there is little motivation to push this market higher.
- Despite the lack of movement upwards, in particular the light volume, the bears seem unable to take advantage of this and send prices lower.
- The trend of late in the market has been to sell-off any premarket gains, at the open, and remain there a bit, before trending back into positive territory by the end of the day.
- The T2108 and the NYSE Reversal Indicator that I use, shows that the market has a lot of upward momentum remaining in it. Whereas more traditional indicators show the markets being well-overbought. For me, the latter doesn’t bother me all that much, since markets are able to run in overbought territory much longer than we deem as being reasonable.
- Any kind of surge in the market between now and year’s end, where we rally, say 10 points on the S&P or more, will be a good opportunity to take profits off the table.
- There are about 13 points of give back on the S&P from where it currently sits, and where the nearest level of support lies at 1247, where any sell-off within those parameters keeps the markets and the short-term uptrend intact without question.
- Breaking support at 1247, and the 10-day moving average, could usher in short-term weakness in the market.
- The dollar is once again looking a bit top-heavy and poised to move lower in the short-term, which should strengthen this market rally.
- The lows from 12/15 and 12/16 represent, in my opinion, the “higher-lows” in this recent market rally, and a break below them at 1232, would significantly stall this market’s upward progression and potentially invite a new trend to the downside.
- For the bears – Push the market below the 10-day moving average for starters – we have yet to dip below this level, even on an intraday basis, the entire month.
- For the bulls – break the highs from last Wednesday, and out of the 4-day consolidation pattern.
Here Are The Actions I Will Be Taking:
