Based on prices as of the close on Thursday, December 23, 2010.
5-Year Outperformance by the
Top 10 Exchange Traded Funds
Weekly Rankings of Major Trend Relative Strength
My weekly Top 10 ETFs ranked by the Major Trend Relative Strength outperformed the S&P 500 by 122 percentage points since August, 2004, in simulation. Click here for a graph of simulated performance.
To arrive at my Top 10 ETF picks, I first calculate a six-month rate of change (approximately) of price. Next, I add in filters to dampen random noise. I rank all the ETFs in my universe from highest rate of change to lowest rate of change. Finally, I pick the highest 10 ETFs each week. These Top 10 are the best performing ETFs, the ones with the best major trend momentum.
Please note that this is a high-volatility strategy: the stocks that go up the most when the stock market is in a Bullish trend often go down the most during market corrections to the downside.
Changes to this research study as of 3/12/10: In an effort to improve this study, I have deleted short and leveraged ETFs, because they have delivered unfavorable “tracking error” in simulated real-time performance. In other words, they have failed to accurately mirror the performance of the indexes they are intended to track, over periods measured in multiple weeks and months. Therefore, I have concluded that they appear to be unsuitable for holding periods measured in weeks, making them incompatible with the design of this research study.
In addition, I have deleted coverage of relatively inactive ETFs that trade fewer than 90,000 shares a day. And I have added a few active foreign and bond ETFs in order to broaden diversification.
Please note that this Top 10 list is a research study and is not investment advice. Your use of this site means that you have read, understood, and accepted my Disclaimer.
Weekly Rank, Name, Symbol
99 Silver Trust iS, SLV
99 Metals & Mining SPDR, XME
98 Basic Materials DJ US, IYM
97 Growth SmallCap VIPERs, VBK
96 Chile MSCI iS, ECH
96 Growth SmallCap R 2000, IWO
95 Thailand MSCI iS, THD
94 Value SmallCap S&P 600, RZV
94 Growth BARRA Small Cap 600, IJT
93 Growth MidCap 400 B, IJK
. . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . .
Based on prices as of the close on Thursday, December 23, 2010.
Exchange Traded Funds
Weekly Rankings of Major Trend Relative Strength
Each week, at the end of the week, I rank 138 Exchange Traded Funds (ETFs), based on my updated version of the Screening Method for Analysis of Relative Strength. For details on this method, see my book, pages 604-609. Below, I ranked 138 ETFs as of the posting date, above.
Research studies suggest that ETFs ranked in the top decile (highest tenth) of the list (with a rank of 90 and higher) may have a greater probability of outperforming the market in the months ahead.
Interpretation:
100 to 90, Buy
89 to 70, Hold
69 to 50, Neutral, Market Perform
49 to 30, Avoid
29 to 0, Sell
Please note that this screen is not investment advice. Your use of this site means that you have read, understood, and accepted myDisclaimer.
Weekly Rank, Name, Symbol
99 Silver Trust iS, SLV
99 Metals & Mining SPDR, XME
98 Basic Materials DJ US, IYM
97 Growth SmallCap VIPERs, VBK
96 Chile MSCI iS, ECH
96 Growth SmallCap R 2000, IWO
95 Thailand MSCI iS, THD
94 Value SmallCap S&P 600, RZV
94 Growth BARRA Small Cap 600, IJT
93 Growth MidCap 400 B, IJK
92 Small Cap VIPERs, VB
91 Microcap Russell, IWC
91 Agriculture DB PS, DBA
90 Semiconductor SPDR, XSD
89 South Africa Index, EZA
89 SmallCap Russell 2000, IWM
88 SmallCap S&P 600, IJR
87 Growth MidCap Russell, IWP
86 Networking, IGN
86 Natural Resource iS GS, IGE
85 Mexico Index, EWW
84 Energy SPDR, XLE
84 Russia MV, RSX
83 Energy VIPERs, VDE
82 MidCap S&P 400 SPDRs, MDY
81 Taiwan Index, EWT
81 Value SmallCap S&P 600 B, IJS
80 South Korea Index, EWY
79 MidCap S&P 400 iS, IJH
79 Sweden Index, EWD
78 Semiconductor iS IGW, SOXX
77 Value SmallCap VIPERS, VBR
76 Energy DJ, IYE
76 Consumer Discretionary SPDR, XLY
75 Materials SPDR, XLB
74 MidCap Russell, IWR
74 Value SmallCap Russell 2000, IWN
73 Growth LargeCap NASDAQ 100, QQQQ
72 Transportation Av DJ, IYT
71 Industrial SPDR, XLI
71 Value MidCap S&P 400 B, IJJ
70 Water Resources, PHO
69 LargeCap Blend S&P=Weight R, RSP
69 Value MidCap Russell, IWS
68 Growth VIPERs, VUG
67 Technology DJ US, IYW
66 Biotech SPDR, XBI
66 Commodity Tracking, DBC
65 Growth 1000 Russell, IWF
64 Malaysia Index, EWM
64 Info Tech VIPERs, VGT
63 Telecom DJ US, IYZ
62 Gold Shares S.T., GLD
61 Blend Total Market VIPERs, VTI
61 LargeCap Blend Russell 3000, IWV
60 Indonesia MV, IDX
59 Growth S&P 500/BARRA, IVW
59 LargeCap VIPERs, VV
58 Switzerland Index, EWL
57 Energy Global, IXC
56 Hong Kong Index, EWH
56 Canada Index, EWC
55 Technology SPDR, XLK
54 LargeCap 1000 R, IWB
54 Latin Am 40, ILF
53 Australia Index, EWA
52 Small Cap EAFE MSCI iS, SCZ
51 Homebuilders SPDR, XHB
51 S&P 500 iS LargeCap Blend, IVV
50 S&P 500 SPDRs LargeCap Blend, SPY
49 Emerging Markets, EEM
49 Emerging VIPERs, VWO
48 Pacific ex-Japan, EPP
47 Austria Index, EWO
46 REIT VIPERs, VNQ
46 Germany Index, EWG
45 Value VIPERs, VTV
44 Value 1000 Russell, IWD
44 Dividend Appreciation Vipers, VIG
43 LargeCap Blend S&P 100, OEF
42 Value S&P 500 B, IVE
41 Realty Cohen & Steers, ICF
41 REIT Wilshire, RWR
40 Capital Markets KWB ST, KCE
39 Growth EAFE MSCI, EFG
39 Dividend High Yield Equity PS, PEY
38 India Earnings WTree, EPI
37 DIAMONDS (DJIA), DIA
36 Dividend DJ Select, DVY
36 Real Estate US DJ, IYR
35 Emerging 50 BLDRS, ADRE
34 Financials VIPERs, VFH
34 Value LargeCap Dynamic PS, PWV
33 India PS, PIN
32 Singapore Index, EWS
31 Global ex US ACWI iS, ACWX
31 United Kingdom Index, EWU
30 Turkey MSCI iS, TUR
29 Dividend SPDR, SDY
29 Japan Index, EWJ
28 Financial DJ US, IYF
27 Consumer Staples SPDR, XLP
26 Financial SPDR, XLF
26 Dividend International, PID
25 EAFE Index, EFA
24 China LargeCap Growth G D H USX PS, PGJ
24 Financial Services DJ, IYG
23 Global 100, IOO
22 WilderHill Clean Energy PS, PBW
21 Pacific VIPERs, VPL
21 Oil, Crude, U.S. Oil Fund, USO
20 Europe 350 S&P Index, IEV
19 Health Care SPDR, XLV
19 Brazil Index, EWZ
18 Netherlands Index, EWN
17 Value EAFE MSCI, EFV
16 Utilities VIPERs, VPU
16 Bond, High-Yield Junk, JNK
15 Bond, High-Yield Corporate, HYG
14 France Index, EWQ
14 Utilities SPDR, XLU
13 European VIPERs, VGK
12 EMU Europe Index, EZU
11 Belgium Index, EWK
11 China 25 iS, FXI
10 Preferred Stock iS, PFF
9 Bond EmrgMkt JPM iS, EMB
9 Financial Preferred, PGF
8 Bond Ex-US Treas, BWX
7 Bond, Corp, LQD
6 Bond, TIPS, TIP
6 Bond Treasury Short-Term iS, SHV
5 Bond, 1-3 Year Treasury, SHY
4 Bond, Aggregate, AGG
4 Bond, 10 Year Treasury, IEF
3 Italy Index, EWI
2 Bond Muni ATM-Free S&P iS, MUB
1 Bond, 20+ Years Treasury, TLT
1 Spain Index, EWP
