The following stock price indexes made new 2-year closing price highs on Friday, 12/17/10:
Nasdaq 100
Nasdaq Composite
Russell 1000
Russell 2000
Russell 3000
S&P 100 Large Caps
S&P 400 Mid Caps
S&P 600 Small Caps
S&P 500 Composite
Value Line Geometric
Wilshire 5000
The Small Cap Russell 2000 Index/Large Cap Relative Strength Ratio (IWM/SPY) rose above 20-year highs on 12/17/10 and remains bullish. Absolute price closed above 2-year closing price highs on 12/17/10 and remains bullish.
The S&P MidCap 400/Large Cap Relative Strength Ratio (MDY/SPY) rose above 15-year highs on 12/17/10 and remains bullish. Absolute price closed above 2-year closing price highs on 12/17/10 and remains bullish.
CRB Index of commodity prices rose above 2-year highs.
Silver/Gold Ratio rose above 3-year highs on 12/17/10, again confirming a bullish trend. Silver has outperformed Gold substantially since 8/20/10.
VIX Fear Index fell below 8-month lows to 15.46 on 12/17/10, reflecting diminishing fear among options players. VIX is near its 3-year low of 15.23 set on 4/12/10. Before we take the current level of VIX as a sell signal, however, we might consider that VIX was as low as 9.89 on 1/24/07, nearly 10 months before the final tops in the price indexes.
S&P 500 Composite (SPX, 1,243.91) rose 1.04 points or 0.08% on 12/17/10 to a new 2-year high, thereby reconfirming its preexisting major uptrend. Over the past few weeks, SPX tested and held above 1173.00, the low of 11/16/10, and the 50-day SMA now at 1200.46 and rising. And SPX held well above the 200-day SMA, now at 1141.53 and rising.
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Spotlight on event stocks: Here is a stock screen I designed to pick out potential event stocks, both Bullish and Bearish. Sometimes, stocks with large changes in price and volume are revealed to be deal stocks, sooner or later, or are the subject of some other extraordinary events, positive or negative.
Bullish Stocks: Rising Price and Rising Volume
Ranked by Price Change * Volume Change
% Price Change, Symbol, Name
18.31% , MI , MARSHAL & ILSLEY
2.94% , ODP , OFFICE DEPOT
3.36% , EK , EASTMAN KODAK
6.80% , ATI , ALLEGHENY TECH
5.31% , SLE , SARA LEE
2.30% , NYT , NY TIMES STK A
4.93% , MTG , MGIC INVESTMENT
4.03% , BC , BRUNSWICK
4.00% , HANS , Hansen Natural, HANS
4.28% , CBS , CBS CORP.
2.32% , DPS , Dr Pepper Snapple Group
2.62% , PHM , PULTE HOMES
1.03% , TLH , Bond 10-20 Year US Treas, TLH
0.89% , GRMN , GARMIN LTD
2.83% , CTSH , Cognizant Technology Solutions
3.37% , MDT , MEDTRONIC
3.94% , ORCL , ORACLE
2.83% , ZEUS , Olympic Steell, ZEUS
3.25% , FMCN , Focus Media, FMCN
2.33% , DELL , DELL
2.01% , SNV , SYNOVUS
2.43% , BIG , BIG LOTS
1.15% , AES , AES
1.57% , MRVL , MARVELL TECHNOLOGY
2.28% , OMX , OFFICEMAX INC., OMX
1.99% , MU.O , MICRON TECH
1.76% , AMAT , APPLIED MATERIAL
1.55% , WFMI , Whole Foods Market Inc
1.57% , TUP , TUPPERWARE
2.40% , JBL , JABIL CIRCUIT
4.08% , KEY , KEYCORP
4.56% , STI , SUNTRUST BANKS
1.56% , DBA , Agriculture DB PS, DBA
Bearish Stocks: Falling Price and Rising Volume
Ranked by Price Change * Volume Change
% Price Change, Symbol, Name
-2.83% , EXPD , Expeditors International WA
-5.91% , PKB , Building & Construction, PKB
-1.52% , PIC , Insurance, PIC
-1.47% , BEN , FRANKLIN RSC
-2.63% , TUR , Turkey MSCI iS, TUR
-2.68% , VMC , VULCAN MATERIALS
-2.48% , TIN , TEMPLE INLAND
-1.06% , CINF , CINCINNATI FIN
-1.67% , QLGC , QLOGIC
-2.18% , CTB , COOPER TIRE
-0.60% , SHLD , SEARS HOLDINGS
-0.85% , CTAS , CINTAS
-1.10% , DISH , EchoStar Communications
-1.58% , SUN , SUNOCO
-1.91% , SYMC , SYMANTEC
-0.81% , NI , NISOURCE
-2.33% , EBAY , EBAY
-0.53% , ITF , Japan LargeCap Blend TOPIX 150, ITF
-1.90% , CAR , Avis Budget Group, Inc. (CAR)
-1.61% , FEZ , Euro STOXX 50, FEZ
-0.35% , IXG , Financials Global LargeCap Value, IXG
-1.02% , MCHP , Microchip Technology Incorporated
-0.22% , PZJ , SmallCap PS Zacks, PZJ
-1.77% , EWI , Italy Index, EWI
-1.75% , GILD , Gilead Sciences Inc
-2.42% , FEU , Value LargeCap Euro STOXX 50 DJ, FEU
-1.10% , LOW , LOWES
-1.55% , PCAR , PACCAR
-1.29% , RSH , RADIOSHACK
-1.45% , ADRD , Developed 100 BLDRS, ADRD
-1.56% , XLNX , XILINX
-1.35% , BAX , BAXTER INTL
-1.57% , UNH , UNITEDHEALTH GRP
9 major U.S. stock sectors ranked in order of long-term relative strength:
Consumer Discretionary (XLY) Bullish, Over Weight. The Relative Strength Ratio (XLY/SPY) rose above 12-year highs on 11/26/10 and remains bullish. XLY has been at the top of my sector rankings for more than a year and has outperformed substantially. Absolute price rose above 3-year highs on 12/7/10 and remains bullish. Support 37.15, 35.32, 35.02, 34.78, 33.94, 33.11, 32.66, 31.70, 29.80, 28.64, 28.21, and 26.62. Resistance 37.88, 38.25, and 39.09.
Energy (XLE) Bullish, Over Weight. The Relative Strength Ratio (XLE/SPY) rose further above 12-month highs on 12/6/10 and remains bullish. Absolute price rose further above 2-year highs on 12/6/10 and remains bullish. Support 65.03, 60.96, 60.21, 57.70, 55.68, 53.22, 50.33, 48.56, 46.16, and 43.66. Resistance 67.00, 69.95, and 78.10.
Materials (XLB) Bullish, Over Weight. The Relative Strength Ratio (XLB/SPY) rose above 11-month highs on 12/7/10 and remains bullish. Absolute price rose above 2-year highs on 12/7/10 and remains bullish. Support 34.20, 33.70, 32.36, 29.88, 29.43, and 27.67. Resistance 37.61 and 39.00.
Industrial (XLI) Bullish, Over Weight. The Relative Strength Ratio (XLI/SPY) rose above 2-year highs on 12/16/10 and remains bullish. Absolute price rose above 2-year highs on 12/16/10 and remains bullish. Support 31.82, 31.58, 30.79, 30.51, 30.32, 29.77, and 27.67. Resistance 34.43, 35.00, and 36.16.
Technology (XLK) Neutral, Market Weight. The Relative Strength Ratio (XLK/SPY) fell below 8-week lows on 12/16/10 and turned neutral for the secondary trend. This RS ratio rose above 8-year highs on 11/3/10, which was a bullish confirmation of the primary uptrend. Absolute price of XLK rose above 2-year highs on 11/4/10 and remains bullish. Support 23.87, 23.74, 23.64, 23.56, 22.68, 22.53, 21.60, 20.01, and 19.51. Resistance 25.32 and 25.69.
Consumer Staples (XLP) Bearish, Under Weight. The Relative Strength Ratio (XLP/SPY) fell further below 7-month lows on 12/10/10 and remains bearish. Absolute price rose above 2-year highs on 12/16/10 and remains bullish. Support 29.10, 28.22, 28.04, 27.76, 27.63, 27.46, 26.34, 25.30, and 24.95. Resistance 30.29.
Financial (XLF) Neutral, Market Weight. The Relative Strength Ratio (XLF/SPY) rose above its 50-day SMA on 12/8/10, thereby turning neutral. Absolute price of XLF rose above 7-month highs on 12/10/10. Although the XLF price model is still technically neutral at this time, the 50-day SMA of price is rising up toward the 200-day SMA and could turn bullish in days ahead. Support 15.08, 14.36, 14.25, 14.20, 13.29, and 13.08. Resistance 15.86, 16.13, 16.90, 17.12, 17.16, and 17.87.
Health Care (XLV) Bearish, Under Weight. The Relative Strength Ratio (XLV/SPY) fell below 2-year lows on 12/9/10 and remains bearish, as it has been most of the time since peaking on 2/23/09. Thanks to a bounce over the past 3-days, absolute price of XLV is technically bullish. Support 30.14, 30.11, 29.87, 28.00, 27.49. Resistance 31.79, 32.05, 32.18, 32.42, 32.69, 33.16, 33.37 and 33.74.
Utilities (XLU) Bearish, Under Weight. The Relative Strength Ratio (XLU/SPY) fell below 7-month lows on 12/10/10 and remains bearish. Absolute price of XLU fell below 13-week lows on 11/29/10. Support 30.51, 29.66, 27.91, 27.44, and 25.76. Resistance 32.11 and 32.40.
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Emerging Markets Stocks ETF (EEM) Relative Strength Ratio (EEM/SPY) broke down below 4-month lows on 12/15/10 and remains neutral.
Foreign Stocks ETF (EFA) Relative Strength Ratio (EFA/SPY) broke down below 5-month lows on 11/30/10 and remains neutral.
NASDAQ Composite/S&P 500 Relative Strength Ratio rose above 9-year highs on 11/26/10 and remains bullish for the long term. This RS Ratio has been in an uptrend for nearly 2 years, since 12/2/08. Absolute price rose above 2-year highs on 12/17/10 and remains bullish.
The Largest Cap S&P 100/S&P 500 Relative Strength Ratio (OEX/SPX) fell below 28-year lows on 12/3/10. This RS Ratio has been trending lower since 8/3/10. Longer term, big caps have been relatively out of favor for more than 10 years, since 3/29/2000.
The Small Cap Russell 2000 Index/Large Cap Relative Strength Ratio (IWM/SPY) rose above 20-year highs on 12/17/10 and remains bullish. Absolute price closed above 2-year closing price highs on 12/17/10 and remains bullish.
The S&P MidCap 400/Large Cap Relative Strength Ratio (MDY/SPY) rose above 15-year highs on 12/17/10 and remains bullish. Absolute price closed above 2-year closing price highs on 12/17/10 and remains bullish.
CRB Index of commodity prices rose above 2-year highs.
Crude Oil nearest futures contract price turned choppy since rising above 2-year highs on 12/7/10. It appears to be normal consolidation in a confirmed major bullish trend with no significant damage to the uptrend. Support 86.83, 83.55, 80.28, 80.06, 79.84, 79.25, 78.86, 72.63, 70.76, 70.35, 69.51, 68.59, 67.15, 65.05, and 64.24. Resistance 90.76, 98.65, and 102.84.
Gold nearest futures contract price fell below 2-week lows on 12/16/10, suggesting a minor price pullback for the short term. Gold may be correcting and consolidating gains since it rose above previous all-time highs and confirmed a bullish major trend on 12/7/10. Support 1352.6, 1329.0, 1325.5, 1317.5, 1297.0, 1274.8, 1270.5, 1232.4, 1210.9, 1191.5, and 1155.6. Resistance: 1432.5.
Gold Mining Stocks ETF (GDX) Relative Strength Ratio (relative to the Gold bullion ETF, GDX/GLD) rose above 12-month highs on 12/6/10 and remains bullish. Absolute price of GDX rose above 4-year highs on 12/6/10.
Silver nearest futures contract price rose above previous 30-year highs on 12/7/10, thereby confirming its preexisting bullish major trend.
Silver/Gold Ratio rose above 3-year highs on 12/17/10, again confirming a bullish trend. Silver has outperformed Gold substantially since 8/20/10.
Copper nearest futures contract price consolidated gains after rising above the previous 2-year highs on 12/14/10. Copper remains in a bullish major trend. Strength in Copper suggests confidence about prospects for the world economy, while weakness in Copper suggests doubts. Support 3.9795, 3.6065, 3.3930, 3.1775, 2.9285, 2.8555, 2.8445, and 2.72. Resistance 4.27.
U.S. Treasury Bond nearest futures contract price rebounded to erase most of its losses for the week on 12/17/10. Still, recall that the bond contract fell below the lows of the previous 7 months on 12/15/10, confirming a bearish major trend. Support 118.21, 118.12, 115.15, 114.06. 113.04, and 112.15. Resistance 129.14, 129.27, 132.26, 133.00, 135.12, 135.19, 136.31, 137.31, and 142.31.
Junk/Investment-Grade Corporate Bonds Relative Strength Ratio (JNK/LQD) rose above 7-month highs on 12/8/10 and remains bullish. Absolute price has been neutral/sideways since 11/23/10.
U.S. Treasury Inflation Protected / U.S. Treasury 7-10 Year Relative Strength Ratio (TIP/IEF) has firmed up moderately since making a low on 8/24/10, even as absolute price of TIP has declined. A rising RS ratio implies that fixed-income investors have been selling inflation protected Notes at a relatively more subdued pace compared to the U.S. Treasury 7-10 Year Note (IEF) over the past 3 months.
The U.S. dollar nearest futures contract price rose above 2-week highs on 12/17/10, possibly suggesting a short-term uptrend. Still, USD may have found resistance near its 200-day SMA, which stands near chart resistance at 81.525 to 82.02. Longer term, USD fell below 11-month lows on 11/3/10, thereby confirming a bearish long-term price trend. Support 78.01, 75.23, 74.27, and 70.80. Resistance 81.525, 82.02, 83.64, 84.73, 85.36, 86.71, 88.80, 89.22, 89.71, and 92.53.
Advisory Service Sentiment: There were 56.8% Bulls versus 20.5% Bears as of 12/1510, according to the weekly Investors Intelligence survey of stock market newsletter advisors. The Bull/Bear ratio stands at 2.77, which is between one and two standard deviations above the long-term, 20-year mean. This is not overly excessive bullish sentiment in the second year of a bull market. Bullish Sentiment tends to rise in November and December. The ratio was as high as it is now or higher in Decembers of each year 2003, 2004, 2005, and 2006, and none of these “high” readings led to bear markets. The 20-year range is 0.41 to 3.74, the median is 1.54, and the mean is 1.61.
VIX Fear Index fell below 8-month lows to 15.46 on 12/17/10, reflecting diminishing fear among options players. VIX is near its 3-year low of 15.23 set on 4/12/10. Before we take the current level of VIX as a sell signal, however, we might consider that VIX was as low as 9.89 on 1/24/07, nearly 10 months before the final tops in the price indexes. VIX is a market estimate of expected constant 30-day volatility, calculated by weighting S&P 500 Index CBOE option bid/ask quotes spanning a wide range of strike prices for the two nearest expiration dates.
The Dow Theory reconfirmed a Primary Tide Bull Market as of 12/14/10, when the Dow-Jones Industrial Average closed above 2-year closing price highs, thereby confirming the new high in the Dow-Jones Transportation Average set on 12/10/10. The Dow Theory originally signaled the current Primary Tide Bull Market on 7/23/09, when both the Dow-Jones Industrial Average and the Dow-Jones Transportation Average closed above their closing price highs of the previous 6 months. Many other analysts were fooled into calling “Bear Market” by the big downside Secondary Reaction in May and June 2010, but my interpretation has been steadily Bullish on the Primary Trend.
S&P 500 Composite (SPX, 1,243.91) rose 1.04 points or 0.08% on 12/17/10 to a new 2-year high, thereby reconfirming its preexisting major uptrend. Over the past few weeks, SPX tested and held above 1173.00, the low of 11/16/10, and the 50-day SMA now at 1200.46 and rising. And SPX held well above the 200-day SMA, now at 1141.53 and rising.
S&P 500 Cash Index Potential Resistance
1576.09, high of 10/11/2007
1552.76, high of 10/31/2007
1523.57, high of 12/11/2007
1498.85, high of 12/26/2007
1440.24, high of 5/19/2008
1406.32, high of 5/29/2008
1381.50, Fibonacci 78.6% of 2007-2009 range
1366.59, high of 6/17/2008
1335.63, high of 6/25/2008
1313.15, high of 8/11/2008
1274.42, high of 9/8/2008
1255.09, high of 9/12/2008
S&P 500 Cash Index Potential Support
1238.81, Fibonacci 78.6% of 1,576.09 high
1235.05, high of 12/7/10
1228.74, Fibonacci 61.8% of 2007-2009 range
1173.00, low of 11/16/10
1171.70, low of 10/27/10
1166.74, low of 10/20/10
1159.71, low of 10/19/10
1,151.41, low of 10/7/10
1,131.87, low of 10/4/10
1122.79, low of 9/23/2010
1114.63, low of 9/15/2010
1110.88, low of 9/10/2010
1091.15, low of 9/7/2010
1039.70, low of 8/27/10
1039.31, Fibonacci 23.6% of June-Aug. 2010 range
1010.91, low of 7/1/2010
1008.55, Fibonacci 38.2% of 2009-2010 range
991.97, low of 9/2/2009
978.51, low of 8/17/2009
956.23, high of 6/11/2009
943.29, Gann 50.0% of 2009-2010 range
878.04, Fibonacci 61.8% of 2009-2010 range
874.17, Gann 62.5% of 2009-2010 range
869.32, low of 7/8/2009
805.17, Gann 75.0% of 2009-2010 range
785.13, Fibonacci 78.6% of 2009-2010 range
666.79, intraday low of 3/6/2009
One-Day Ranking of Major ETFs, Ranked from Strongest to Weakest of the Day:
% Price Change, ETF Name, Symbol
1.82% Bond, 20+ Years Treasury, TLT
1.56% Agriculture DB PS, DBA
1.34% Bond Muni ATM-Free S&P iS, MUB
1.02% Metals & Mining SPDR, XME
0.91% Bond, Corp, LQD
0.86% Bond, 10 Year Treasury, IEF
0.83% REIT VIPERs, VNQ
0.80% Silver Trust iS, SLV
0.80% Chile MSCI iS, ECH
0.78% Real Estate US DJ, IYR
0.76% Commodity Tracking, DBC
0.70% Realty Cohen & Steers, ICF
0.69% Growth SmallCap R 2000, IWO
0.68% Bond, TIPS, TIP
0.67% Basic Materials DJ US, IYM
0.65% Semiconductor iS IGW, SOXX
0.57% Growth BARRA Small Cap 600, IJT
0.54% Bond, Aggregate, AGG
0.53% Bond, High-Yield Junk, JNK
0.52% Taiwan Index, EWT
0.50% Brazil Index, EWZ
0.50% Growth SmallCap VIPERs, VBK
0.48% SmallCap S&P 600, IJR
0.48% Value SmallCap S&P 600 B, IJS
0.47% Financials VIPERs, VFH
0.46% Mexico Index, EWW
0.42% MidCap Russell, IWR
0.41% Growth MidCap Russell, IWP
0.39% India Earnings WTree, EPI
0.38% Value MidCap Russell, IWS
0.36% Info Tech VIPERs, VGT
0.34% Value SmallCap S&P 600, RZV
0.34% Biotech SPDR, XBI
0.32% Financial DJ US, IYF
0.31% MidCap S&P 400 iS, IJH
0.31% SmallCap Russell 2000, IWM
0.31% Latin Am 40, ILF
0.30% Small Cap VIPERs, VB
0.30% Utilities VIPERs, VPU
0.30% Singapore Index, EWS
0.30% Technology DJ US, IYW
0.29% Gold Shares S.T., GLD
0.28% Russia MV, RSX
0.28% Growth MidCap 400 B, IJK
0.27% Networking, IGN
0.27% Hong Kong Index, EWH
0.26% Microcap Russell, IWC
0.26% Growth VIPERs, VUG
0.25% Financial Services DJ, IYG
0.22% LargeCap Blend Russell 3000, IWV
0.20% Value SmallCap VIPERS, VBR
0.19% Financial SPDR, XLF
0.19% Blend Total Market VIPERs, VTI
0.19% LargeCap VIPERs, VV
0.18% Growth S&P 500/BARRA, IVW
0.18% Bond EmrgMkt JPM iS, EMB
0.18% Growth 1000 Russell, IWF
0.17% Preferred Stock iS, PFF
0.17% S&P 500 iS LargeCap Blend, IVV
0.16% Emerging Markets, EEM
0.16% LargeCap 1000 R, IWB
0.15% Bond, High-Yield Corporate, HYG
0.14% Bond Ex-US Treas, BWX
0.12% Oil, Crude, U.S. Oil Fund, USO
0.10% Value MidCap S&P 400 B, IJJ
0.10% Small Cap EAFE MSCI iS, SCZ
0.09% Value VIPERs, VTV
0.09% LargeCap Blend S&P=Weight R, RSP
0.09% Value S&P 500 B, IVE
0.08% Bond, 1-3 Year Treasury, SHY
0.07% Natural Resource iS GS, IGE
0.07% LargeCap Blend S&P 100, OEF
0.06% Value 1000 Russell, IWD
0.06% Financial Preferred, PGF
0.06% Dividend Appreciation Vipers, VIG
0.04% Semiconductor SPDR, XSD
0.00% Energy DJ, IYE
0.00% Dividend High Yield Equity PS, PEY
-0.02% Bond Treasury Short-Term iS, SHV
-0.02% China 25 iS, FXI
-0.03% Energy VIPERs, VDE
-0.03% Materials SPDR, XLB
-0.03% Value SmallCap Russell 2000, IWN
-0.04% China LargeCap Growth G D H USX PS, PGJ
-0.04% MidCap S&P 400 SPDRs, MDY
-0.04% Emerging 50 BLDRS, ADRE
-0.07% Sweden Index, EWD
-0.09% South Korea Index, EWY
-0.09% Malaysia Index, EWM
-0.09% Emerging VIPERs, VWO
-0.10% WilderHill Clean Energy PS, PBW
-0.11% REIT Wilshire, RWR
-0.11% Growth LargeCap NASDAQ 100, QQQQ
-0.12% Dividend DJ Select, DVY
-0.12% Pacific VIPERs, VPL
-0.14% Indonesia MV, IDX
-0.16% Technology SPDR, XLK
-0.22% South Africa Index, EZA
-0.25% DIAMONDS (DJIA), DIA
-0.26% Canada Index, EWC
-0.28% Pacific ex-Japan, EPP
-0.28% Japan Index, EWJ
-0.29% Energy Global, IXC
-0.31% Water Resources, PHO
-0.35% Health Care SPDR, XLV
-0.39% Global 100, IOO
-0.39% Telecom DJ US, IYZ
-0.39% Global ex US ACWI iS, ACWX
-0.39% Netherlands Index, EWN
-0.41% Energy SPDR, XLE
-0.42% S&P 500 SPDRs LargeCap Blend, SPY
-0.43% Consumer Discretionary SPDR, XLY
-0.43% Growth EAFE MSCI, EFG
-0.47% Austria Index, EWO
-0.47% Australia Index, EWA
-0.52% United Kingdom Index, EWU
-0.54% Germany Index, EWG
-0.55% EAFE Index, EFA
-0.57% India PS, PIN
-0.66% Utilities SPDR, XLU
-0.70% Consumer Staples SPDR, XLP
-0.71% EMU Europe Index, EZU
-0.71% Europe 350 S&P Index, IEV
-0.72% Transportation Av DJ, IYT
-0.75% Value EAFE MSCI, EFV
-0.76% Belgium Index, EWK
-0.80% Industrial SPDR, XLI
-0.81% Homebuilders SPDR, XHB
-0.84% Capital Markets KWB ST, KCE
-0.84% Dividend SPDR, SDY
-0.85% France Index, EWQ
-0.94% European VIPERs, VGK
-0.98% Switzerland Index, EWL
-1.08% Value LargeCap Dynamic PS, PWV
-1.23% Thailand MSCI iS, THD
-1.60% Spain Index, EWP
-1.69% Dividend International, PID
-1.77% Italy Index, EWI
-2.63% Turkey MSCI iS, TUR
