written by
Fan Yang CMT
FXTimes
US Dollar Rebounds; Euro Weakness a Standout
The USD attempted to take back its gains this week, but its attempts were in the end insignificant, and requires further confirmation. The euro however, looked like it was holding off the pressure for now, but eventually the market caved in to the lack of confidence. In this report, we will take a look at the EUR/USD, GBP/USD, USD/JPY, USD/CAD, AUD/USD, EUR/JPY, EUR/CHF, EUR/GBP, EUR/NZD, EUR/AUD.
Technical Analysis Tools:
Simple Moving Average(SMA) 50-period (red), 200-period (bold, gray)
RSI-14 with Simple Moving Average 5-period of RSI attached.
Fibonacci Studies (retracement, extended retracements, expansions)
Elliott Wave Principles
Market and Price Action (patterns, candlesticks)
Multiple Time-Frame Analysis
EUR/USD Might Retest 1.3450
- Daily and 4H: The EUR/USD indeed shot up to the 1.3450 level as anticipated last week. There was resistance here, and the market came down near 1.3150. A break below that suggests there is enough bearish push to continue this downtrend, which would retest 1.2970.
- In the daily chart, we see that another swing would be the 3rd downswing, one that could set up for a significant correction. The 1.2970 was the previous low, and if that is broken, we do still have a pivot at 1.2940 (was resistance for end-of-August-beginning-of-September-consolidation).
- In the 4H chart, we see three moves down (overlapping moves so – not impulse waves). This sets up for a possible swing back up towards 1.3450. If the rally breaks above 1.33 that would be a likely scenario.
- However, if the market drops below 1.3150 as mentioned, the bearish scenario to test 1.2970-1.2940 is more likely. A break below that targets the 1.2750 pivot (7/21, 8/13).
GBP/USD Still Knocking on 1.5850
