Consumer Discretionary stock sector absolute price rose above 3-year highs and remains bullish.
Materials stock sector Relative Strength Ratio (XLB/SPY) rose above 11-month highs and remains bullish. Absolute price rose above 2-year highs and remains bullish.
Industrial stock sector Relative Strength Ratio (XLI/SPY) rose above 2-year highs and remains bullish. Absolute price rose above 2-year highs and remains bullish.
Utilities stock sector Relative Strength Ratio (XLU/SPY) fell below 7-month lows and remains bearish.
NASDAQ Composite price rose above 2-year highs and remains bullish.
The Small Cap Russell 2000 Index/Large Cap Relative Strength Ratio (IWM/SPY) rose above 20-year highs and remains bullish. Absolute price rose above 2-year highs and remains bullish.
The S&P MidCap 400/Large Cap Relative Strength Ratio (MDY/SPY) rose above 15-year highs and remains bullish. Absolute price rose above 2-year highs and remains bullish.
Crude Oil staged an Outside Day Reversal (higher higher and lower low than the previous day), which might imply a minor price pullback for the short term.
Gold staged an Outside Day Reversal (higher higher and lower low than the previous day), which might imply a minor price pullback for the short term.
Silver nearest futures contract price probed new high territory but surrendered nearly all of its gain by the close, possibly suggesting bullish exhaustion for the short term.
Copper rose further above the previous 2-year highs, again confirming the bullish major trend.
U.S. Treasury Bond nearest futures contract price fell below the lows of the previous 4 months, confirming the preexisting bearish trend for the intermediate-term trend.
Junk/Investment-Grade Corporate Bonds Relative Strength Ratio (JNK/LQD) rose above 7-month highs and turned bullish.
S&P 500 Composite (SPX, 1,223.75) rose 0.63 points or 0.05% on Tuesday in much more active trading. But what these numbers don’t show is that the SPX shed nearly all of its early large gain, mostly in the final hour, in what looked like “Sell on the News” dumping of long positions. Stocks were lacking bullish resilience this time, in contrast to their behavior in recent weeks. This could suggest exhaustion of the bullish trend for the short term. Longer term, over the past month, SPX tested and held above 1173.00, the low of 11/16/10, and the 50-day SMA now at 1186.64 and rising. And SPX held well above the 200-day SMA, now at 1136.64 and rising. Longer term, SPX rose above 2-year highs on 11/5/10, reconfirming a bullish major trend.
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Spotlight on event stocks: Here is a stock screen I designed to pick out potential event stocks, both Bullish and Bearish. Sometimes, stocks with large changes in price and volume are revealed to be deal stocks, sooner or later, or are the subject of some other extraordinary events, positive or negative.
Bullish Stocks: Rising Price and Rising Volume
Ranked by Price Change * Volume Change
% Price Change, Symbol, Name
3.82% , C , CITIGROUP
3.26% , PST , 200% Short Bond 7-10 Yr T, PST
6.62% , RFMD , RF Micro Devices Inc
1.16% , IIH , Internet Infrastructure H, IIH
4.28% , JBL , JABIL CIRCUIT
0.68% , FEU , Value LargeCap Euro STOXX 50 DJ, FEU
5.49% , ZEUS , Olympic Steell, ZEUS
4.34% , GAS , NICOR
0.43% , PSI , Semiconductors, PSI
3.74% , YHOO , YAHOO
3.72% , ODP , OFFICE DEPOT
1.76% , CBS , CBS CORP.
3.01% , DE , DEERE & CO
4.02% , TBT , 200% Short US T Bond, TBT
0.73% , IJT , Growth BARRA Small Cap 600, IJT
3.22% , NVDA , NVIDIA
2.20% , PAYX , PAYCHEX
3.25% , MAS , MASCO
0.24% , SWH , Software H, SWH
4.05% , NYT , NY TIMES STK A
0.80% , IWC , Microcap Russell, IWC
1.59% , CVX , CHEVRONTEXACO
0.38% , NY , Value LargeCap NYSE 100 iS, NY
1.50% , PBI , PITNEY BOWES
0.98% , XL , XL CAPITAL STK A
2.74% , GCI , GANNETT
1.29% , CAT , CATERPILLAR
0.99% , WOR , WORTHINGTON INDS
1.46% , VMC , VULCAN MATERIALS
1.21% , A , AGILENT TECH
1.69% , DHI , D.R. HORTON, DHI
1.89% , NE , NOBLE
0.65% , CAH , CARDINAL HEALTH
Bearish Stocks: Falling Price and Rising Volume
Ranked by Price Change * Volume Change
% Price Change, Symbol, Name
-1.84% , TLH , Bond 10-20 Year US Treas, TLH
-4.02% , BHI , BAKER HUGHES
-0.78% , ITF , Japan LargeCap Blend TOPIX 150, ITF
-3.10% , MMM , 3M
-2.77% , TIN , TEMPLE INLAND
-1.67% , CMA , COMERICA
-2.62% , BHH , Internet B2B H, BHH
-3.10% , MTG , MGIC INVESTMENT
-2.14% , TLT , Bond, 20+ Years Treasury, TLT
-2.49% , MWV , MEADWESTVACO
-2.73% , NBR , NABORS
-1.69% , MBI , MBIA
-0.98% , BWX , Bond Ex-US Treas, BWX
-2.35% , BBY , BEST BUY
-0.61% , UTH , Utilities H, UTH
-2.06% , OIH , Oil Services H, OIH
-2.94% , ASH , ASHLAND
-2.81% , KEY , KEYCORP
-0.70% , VIA , VIACOM INC. (New)
-1.54% , EZA , South Africa Index, EZA
-1.85% , FHN , FIRST TENNESSEE
-1.21% , ERIC.O , LM Ericsson Telephone Company
-0.67% , RKH , Bank Regional H, RKH
-2.25% , LAMR , Lamar Advertising Company
-1.41% , CI , CIGNA
-1.14% , USB , US BANCORP
-1.47% , BF.B , BROWN FORMAN STK B
-0.27% , PXQ , Networking, PXQ
-1.27% , JCI , JOHNSON CONTROLS
-1.08% , HAL , HALLIBURTON
-1.46% , MUB , Bond Muni ATM-Free S&P iS, MUB
-1.88% , GLD , Gold Shares S.T., GLD
-1.54% , HPQ , HEWLETT PACKARD
9 major U.S. stock sectors ranked in order of long-term relative strength:
Consumer Discretionary (XLY) Bullish, Over Weight. The Relative Strength Ratio (XLY/SPY) rose above 12-year highs on 11/26/10 and remains bullish. XLY has been at the top of my sector rankings for more than a year and has outperformed substantially. Absolute price rose above 3-year highs on 12/7/10 and remains bullish. Support 35.32, 35.02, 34.78, 33.94, 33.11, 32.66, 31.70, 29.80, 28.64, 28.21, and 26.62. Resistance 37.88, 38.25, and 39.09.
Energy (XLE) Bullish, Over Weight. The Relative Strength Ratio (XLE/SPY) rose further above 12-month highs on 12/6/10 and remains bullish. Absolute price rose further above 2-year highs on 12/6/10 and remains bullish. Support 60.96, 60.21, 57.70, 55.68, 53.22, 50.33, 48.56, 46.16, and 43.66. Resistance 67.00, 69.95, and 78.10.
Materials (XLB) Bullish, Over Weight. The Relative Strength Ratio (XLB/SPY) rose above 11-month highs on 12/7/10 and remains bullish. Absolute price rose above 2-year highs on 12/7/10 and remains bullish. Support 34.20, 33.70, 32.36, 29.88, 29.43, and 27.67. Resistance 37.61 and 39.00.
Industrial (XLI) Bullish, Over Weight. The Relative Strength Ratio (XLI/SPY) rose above 2-year highs on 12/7/10 and remains bullish. Absolute price rose above 2-year highs on 12/7/10 and remains bullish. Support 31.82, 31.58, 30.79, 30.51, 30.32, 29.77, and 27.67. Resistance 34.43, 35.00, and 36.16.
Technology (XLK) Bullish, Over Weight. The Relative Strength Ratio (XLK/SPY) rose above 8-year highs on 11/3/10, which was a bullish confirmation of the major trend. Absolute price of XLK rose above 2-year highs on 11/4/10 and remains bullish. Support 23.74, 23.64, 23.56, 22.68, 22.53, 21.60, 20.01, and 19.51. Resistance 25.28 and 25.69.
Consumer Staples (XLP) Bearish, Under Weight. The Relative Strength Ratio (XLP/SPY) fell further below 7-month lows on 12/6/10 and remains bearish. Absolute price has weakened since making a top at 29.06 on 111/4/10. Support 28.22, 28.04, 27.76, 27.63, 27.46, 26.34, 25.30, and 24.95. Resistance 28.85, 29.06, and 30.29.
Financial (XLF) Bearish, Under Weight. The Relative Strength Ratio (XLF/SPY) fell below 18-month lows on 11/26/10 and remains bearish. Absolute price of XLF fell below 9-week lows on 11/23/10, and the 50-day SMA remains below the 200-day SMA. Support 14.36, 14.25, 14.20, 13.29, and 13.08. Resistance 15.68, 16.13, 16.90, 17.12, 17.16, and 17.87.
Health Care (XLV) Bearish, Under Weight. The Relative Strength Ratio (XLV/SPY) fell below 2-year lows on 12/6/10 and remains bearish, as it has been most of the time since peaking on 2/23/09. Absolute price of XLV fell below 8-week lows on 11/29/10. Support 30.14, 30.11, 29.87, 28.00, 27.49. Resistance 31.73, 32.05, 32.18, 32.42, 32.69, 33.16, 33.37 and 33.74.
Utilities (XLU) Bearish, Under Weight. The Relative Strength Ratio (XLU/SPY) fell below 7-month lows on 12/7/10 and remains bearish. Absolute price of XLU fell below 13-week lows on 11/29/10. Support 30.51, 29.66, 27.91, 27.44, and 25.76. Resistance 32.11 and 32.40.
. . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . .
Emerging Markets Stocks ETF (EEM) Relative Strength Ratio (EEM/SPY) broke down below 3-month lows on 11/26/10 and remains neutral.
Foreign Stocks ETF (EFA) Relative Strength Ratio (EFA/SPY) broke down below 5-month lows on 11/30/10 and remains neutral.
NASDAQ Composite/S&P 500 Relative Strength Ratio rose above 9-year highs on 11/26/10 and remains bullish for the long term. This RS Ratio has been in an uptrend for nearly 2 years, since 12/2/08. Absolute price rose above 2-year highs on 12/7/10 and remains bullish.
The Largest Cap S&P 100/S&P 500 Relative Strength Ratio (OEX/SPX) fell below 28-year lows on 12/3/10. This RS Ratio has been trending lower since 8/3/10. Longer term, big caps have been relatively out of favor for more than 10 years, since 3/29/2000.
The Small Cap Russell 2000 Index/Large Cap Relative Strength Ratio (IWM/SPY) rose above 20-year highs on 12/7/10 and remains bullish. Absolute price rose above 2-year highs on 12/7/10 and remains bullish.
The S&P MidCap 400/Large Cap Relative Strength Ratio (MDY/SPY) rose above 15-year highs on 12/7/10 and remains bullish. Absolute price rose above 2-year highs on 12/7/10 and remains bullish.
Crude Oil nearest futures contract price staged an Outside Day Reversal (higher higher and lower low than the previous day) on 12/7/10, which might imply a minor price pullback for the short term. Longer term, Oil rose further above 2-year highs on 12/6/10, again confirming a bullish major trend. Support 83.55, 80.28, 80.06, 79.84, 79.25, 78.86, 72.63, 70.76, 70.35, 69.51, 68.59, 67.15, 65.05, and 64.24. Resistance 90.76, 98.65, and 102.84.
Gold nearest futures contract price staged an Outside Day Reversal (higher higher and lower low than the previous day) on 12/7/10, which might imply a minor price pullback for the short term. Longer term, Gold rose above previous all-time highs on 12/6/10, again confirming the bullish major trend. Support 1350.1, 1329.0, 1315.6, 1297.0, 1274.8, 1270.5, 1232.4, 1210.9, 1191.5, and 1155.6. Resistance: 1432.5.
Gold Mining Stocks ETF (GDX) Relative Strength Ratio (relative to the Gold bullion ETF, GDX/GLD) rose above 12-month highs on 12/6/10 and remains bullish. Absolute price of GDX rose above 4-year highs on 12/6/10.
Silver nearest futures contract price probed new high territory on 12/7/10 but surrendered nearly all of its gain by the close, possibly suggesting bullish exhaustion for the short term. Longer term, Silver rose above previous 30-year highs on 12/6/10, confirming the preexisting bullish major trend.
Silver/Gold Ratio rose above 3-year highs on 12/6/10, again confirming a bullish trend. Silver has outperformed Gold substantially since 8/20/10.
Copper nearest futures contract price rose above the previous 2-year highs on 12/7/10, again confirming the bullish major trend. Strength in Copper suggests confidence about prospects for the world economy, while weakness in Copper suggests doubts. Support 3.6065, 3.3930, 3.1775, 2.9285, 2.8555, 2.8445, and 2.72. Resistance 4.123 and 4.27.
U.S. Treasury Bond nearest futures contract price fell below the lows of the previous 4 months on 12/7/10, confirming the preexisting bearish trend for the intermediate-term trend. Support 123.03, 121.28, 119.26, 118.24, 118.12, 115.15, 114.06. 113.04, and 112.15. Resistance 129.14, 129.27, 132.26, 133.00, 135.12, 135.19, 136.31, 137.31, and 142.31.
Junk/Investment-Grade Corporate Bonds Relative Strength Ratio (JNK/LQD) rose above 7-month highs on 12/7/10 and turned bullish. Absolute price remains sideways/neutral.
U.S. Treasury Inflation Protected / U.S. Treasury 7-10 Year Relative Strength Ratio (TIP/IEF) has firmed up moderately since making a low on 8/24/10, which implies that fixed-income investors have been choosing somewhat greater inflation protection over the past 3 months.
The U.S. dollar nearest futures contract price recovered a normal fraction of last week’s loss on 12/7/10. USD fell below the lows of the previous 6 days and broke down below a 4-week uptrend line on 12/3/10, both confirming a short-term downtrend. USD may have found resistance near its 200-day SMA, which stands just below chart resistance at 82.02. Longer term, USD fell below 11-month lows on 11/3/10, thereby confirming a bearish long-term price trend. Support 78.01, 75.23, 74.27, and 70.80. Resistance 81.525, 82.02, 83.64, 84.73, 85.36, 86.71, 88.80, 89.22, 89.71, and 92.53.
Advisory Service Sentiment: There were 55.4% Bulls versus 21.8% Bears as of 12/1/10, according to the weekly Investors Intelligence survey of stock market newsletter advisors. The Bull/Bear ratio stands at 2.54, which is between one and two standard deviations above the long-term mean. This is not overly excessive bullish sentiment in the second year of a bull market. The 20-year range is 0.41 to 3.74, the median is 1.54, and the mean is 1.61.
VIX Fear Index fell below 7-month lows to 17.13 on 12/7/10, reflecting diminishing fear among options players. The trend is down and VIX could drop further: it was as low as 15.23 on 4/12/10. VIX is a market estimate of expected constant 30-day volatility, calculated by weighting S&P 500 Index CBOE option bid/ask quotes spanning a wide range of strike prices for the two nearest expiration dates.
The Dow Theory reconfirmed a Primary Tide Bull Market as of 11/3/10, when both the Dow-Jones Industrial Average and the Dow-Jones Transportation Average closed above their closing price highs of the previous 25 months. The Dow Theory originally signaled the current Primary Tide Bull Market on 7/23/09, when both the Dow-Jones Industrial Average and the Dow-Jones Transportation Average closed above their closing price highs of the previous 6 months. Many other analysts were fooled into calling “Bear Market” by the big downside Secondary Reaction in May and June 2010, but my interpretation has been steadily Bullish on the Primary Trend.
S&P 500 Composite (SPX, 1,223.75) rose 0.63 points or 0.05% on Tuesday in much more active trading. But that these numbers don’t show is that the SPX shed nearly all of its early large gain, mostly in the final hour, in what looked like “Sell on the News” dumping of long positions. Stocks were lacking bullish resilience this time, in contrast to their behavior in recent weeks. This could suggest exhaustion of the bullish trend for the short term. Longer term, over the past month, SPX tested and held above 1173.00, the low of 11/16/10, and the 50-day SMA now at 1186.64 and rising. And SPX held well above the 200-day SMA, now at 1136.64 and rising. Longer term, SPX rose above 2-year highs on 11/5/10, again reconfirming a bullish major trend.
S&P 500 Cash Index Potential Resistance
1576.09, high of 10/11/2007
1552.76, high of 10/31/2007
1523.57, high of 12/11/2007
1498.85, high of 12/26/2007
1440.24, high of 5/19/2008
1406.32, high of 5/29/2008
1381.50, Fibonacci 78.6% of 2007-2009 range
1366.59, high of 6/17/2008
1335.63, high of 6/25/2008
1313.15, high of 8/11/2008
1274.42, high of 9/8/2008
1255.09, high of 9/12/2008
1238.81, Fibonacci 78.6% of 1,576.09 high
1235.05, high of 12/7/10
1228.74, Fibonacci 61.8% of 2007-2009 range
S&P 500 Cash Index Potential Support
1173.00, low of 11/16/10
1171.70, low of 10/27/10
1166.74, low of 10/20/10
1159.71, low of 10/19/10
1,151.41, low of 10/7/10
1,131.87, low of 10/4/10
1122.79, low of 9/23/2010
1114.63, low of 9/15/2010
1110.88, low of 9/10/2010
1091.15, low of 9/7/2010
1039.70, low of 8/27/10
1039.31, Fibonacci 23.6% of June-Aug. 2010 range
1010.91, low of 7/1/2010
1008.55, Fibonacci 38.2% of 2009-2010 range
991.97, low of 9/2/2009
978.51, low of 8/17/2009
956.23, high of 6/11/2009
943.29, Gann 50.0% of 2009-2010 range
878.04, Fibonacci 61.8% of 2009-2010 range
874.17, Gann 62.5% of 2009-2010 range
869.32, low of 7/8/2009
805.17, Gann 75.0% of 2009-2010 range
785.13, Fibonacci 78.6% of 2009-2010 range
666.79, intraday low of 3/6/2009
One-Day Ranking of Major ETFs, Ranked from Strongest to Weakest of the Day:
% Price Change, ETF Name, Symbol
0.88% France Index, EWQ
0.82% Value SmallCap S&P 600, RZV
0.81% Water Resources, PHO
0.80% Microcap Russell, IWC
0.75% EMU Europe Index, EZU
0.74% Biotech SPDR, XBI
0.73% Growth BARRA Small Cap 600, IJT
0.68% Hong Kong Index, EWH
0.64% SmallCap S&P 600, IJR
0.61% Chile MSCI iS, ECH
0.59% Value SmallCap S&P 600 B, IJS
0.58% SmallCap Russell 2000, IWM
0.57% Europe 350 S&P Index, IEV
0.56% Growth SmallCap R 2000, IWO
0.56% Consumer Staples SPDR, XLP
0.55% Netherlands Index, EWN
0.53% United Kingdom Index, EWU
0.52% Bond, High-Yield Corporate, HYG
0.46% Small Cap VIPERs, VB
0.46% Value SmallCap VIPERS, VBR
0.45% Realty Cohen & Steers, ICF
0.44% European VIPERs, VGK
0.42% Value SmallCap Russell 2000, IWN
0.38% Austria Index, EWO
0.38% Growth SmallCap VIPERs, VBK
0.34% China 25 iS, FXI
0.33% Real Estate US DJ, IYR
0.30% Switzerland Index, EWL
0.28% Transportation Av DJ, IYT
0.28% REIT Wilshire, RWR
0.28% South Korea Index, EWY
0.28% Global 100, IOO
0.27% Industrial SPDR, XLI
0.25% Bond, High-Yield Junk, JNK
0.24% Dividend DJ Select, DVY
0.24% India PS, PIN
0.24% Pacific ex-Japan, EPP
0.24% Homebuilders SPDR, XHB
0.23% Value S&P 500 B, IVE
0.22% REIT VIPERs, VNQ
0.21% Growth MidCap 400 B, IJK
0.21% Dividend Appreciation Vipers, VIG
0.20% Telecom DJ US, IYZ
0.17% Financial SPDR, XLF
0.16% LargeCap Blend S&P 100, OEF
0.16% Australia Index, EWA
0.15% Semiconductor SPDR, XSD
0.15% Small Cap EAFE MSCI iS, SCZ
0.14% Malaysia Index, EWM
0.14% Value VIPERs, VTV
0.13% Materials SPDR, XLB
0.13% Preferred Stock iS, PFF
0.12% Italy Index, EWI
0.12% Technology SPDR, XLK
0.11% MidCap S&P 400 iS, IJH
0.11% MidCap S&P 400 SPDRs, MDY
0.11% Blend Total Market VIPERs, VTI
0.11% Capital Markets KWB ST, KCE
0.10% Growth EAFE MSCI, EFG
0.10% Financials VIPERs, VFH
0.08% Value 1000 Russell, IWD
0.07% S&P 500 iS LargeCap Blend, IVV
0.07% Growth MidCap Russell, IWP
0.07% LargeCap Blend Russell 3000, IWV
0.07% Growth LargeCap NASDAQ 100, QQQQ
0.06% Health Care SPDR, XLV
0.06% Technology DJ US, IYW
0.06% LargeCap 1000 R, IWB
0.06% S&P 500 SPDRs LargeCap Blend, SPY
0.05% Consumer Discretionary SPDR, XLY
0.05% EAFE Index, EFA
0.05% Dividend International, PID
0.04% Germany Index, EWG
0.04% LargeCap VIPERs, VV
0.03% Info Tech VIPERs, VGT
0.03% LargeCap Blend S&P=Weight R, RSP
0.02% MidCap Russell, IWR
0.01% Indonesia MV, IDX
0.00% Value LargeCap Dynamic PS, PWV
0.00% Value EAFE MSCI, EFV
0.00% Growth VIPERs, VUG
0.00% Bond Treasury Short-Term iS, SHV
-0.01% DIAMONDS (DJIA), DIA
-0.03% Value MidCap S&P 400 B, IJJ
-0.03% Energy Global, IXC
-0.06% Dividend High Yield Equity PS, PEY
-0.08% Thailand MSCI iS, THD
-0.09% Growth 1000 Russell, IWF
-0.09% Value MidCap Russell, IWS
-0.09% Global ex US ACWI iS, ACWX
-0.11% Semiconductor iS IGW, SOXX
-0.11% Financial DJ US, IYF
-0.11% Financial Preferred, PGF
-0.13% Basic Materials DJ US, IYM
-0.15% Belgium Index, EWK
-0.17% Growth S&P 500/BARRA, IVW
-0.18% Dividend SPDR, SDY
-0.18% Bond, 1-3 Year Treasury, SHY
-0.24% Energy VIPERs, VDE
-0.26% Financial Services DJ, IYG
-0.26% China LargeCap Growth G D H USX PS, PGJ
-0.27% Russia MV, RSX
-0.29% Energy DJ, IYE
-0.34% Taiwan Index, EWT
-0.36% Singapore Index, EWS
-0.38% Energy SPDR, XLE
-0.39% WilderHill Clean Energy PS, PBW
-0.42% India Earnings WTree, EPI
-0.45% Bond EmrgMkt JPM iS, EMB
-0.45% Spain Index, EWP
-0.46% Emerging VIPERs, VWO
-0.47% Emerging Markets, EEM
-0.49% Canada Index, EWC
-0.49% Networking, IGN
-0.50% Pacific VIPERs, VPL
-0.54% Utilities VIPERs, VPU
-0.55% Turkey MSCI iS, TUR
-0.57% Mexico Index, EWW
-0.59% Emerging 50 BLDRS, ADRE
-0.61% Natural Resource iS GS, IGE
-0.67% Utilities SPDR, XLU
-0.68% Sweden Index, EWD
-0.68% Commodity Tracking, DBC
-0.78% Bond, Aggregate, AGG
-0.93% Bond, Corp, LQD
-0.98% Latin Am 40, ILF
-0.98% Bond Ex-US Treas, BWX
-0.99% Bond, TIPS, TIP
-1.02% Brazil Index, EWZ
-1.10% Oil, Crude, U.S. Oil Fund, USO
-1.17% Japan Index, EWJ
-1.21% Agriculture DB PS, DBA
-1.46% Bond Muni ATM-Free S&P iS, MUB
-1.54% South Africa Index, EZA
-1.66% Bond, 10 Year Treasury, IEF
-1.68% Metals & Mining SPDR, XME
-1.88% Gold Shares S.T., GLD
-2.14% Bond, 20+ Years Treasury, TLT
-4.85% Silver Trust iS, SLV