Based on prices as of the close on Friday, December 3, 2010.
5-Year Outperformance by the
Top 10 Exchange Traded Funds
Weekly Rankings of Major Trend Relative Strength
My weekly Top 10 ETFs ranked by the Major Trend Relative Strength outperformed the S&P 500 by 125 percentage points since August, 2004, in simulation. Click here for a graph of simulated performance.
To arrive at my Top 10 ETF picks, I first calculate a six-month rate of change (approximately) of price. Next, I add in filters to dampen random noise. I rank all the ETFs in my universe from highest rate of change to lowest rate of change. Finally, I pick the highest 10 ETFs each week. These Top 10 are the best performing ETFs, the ones with the best major trend momentum.
Please note that this is a high-volatility strategy: the stocks that go up the most when the stock market is in a Bullish trend often go down the most during market corrections to the downside.
Changes to this research study as of 3/12/10: In an effort to improve this study, I have deleted short and leveraged ETFs, because they have delivered unfavorable “tracking error” in simulated real-time performance. In other words, they have failed to accurately mirror the performance of the indexes they are intended to track, over periods measured in multiple weeks and months. Therefore, I have concluded that they appear to be unsuitable for holding periods measured in weeks, making them incompatible with the design of this research study.
In addition, I have deleted coverage of relatively inactive ETFs that trade fewer than 90,000 shares a day. And I have added a few active foreign and bond ETFs in order to broaden diversification.
Please note that this Top 10 list is a research study and is not investment advice. Your use of this site means that you have read, understood, and accepted myDisclaimer.
Weekly Rank, Name, Symbol
99 Silver Trust iS, SLV
99 Thailand MSCI iS, THD
98 Metals & Mining SPDR, XME
97 Chile MSCI iS, ECH
96 Semiconductor SPDR, XSD
96 Indonesia MV, IDX
95 Basic Materials DJ US, IYM
94 Semiconductor iS IGW, SOXX
94 South Africa Index, EZA
93 Growth MidCap 400 B, IJK
. . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . .
Based on prices as of the close on Friday, December 3, 2010.
Exchange Traded Funds
Weekly Rankings of Major Trend Relative Strength
Each week, at the end of the week, I rank 138 Exchange Traded Funds (ETFs), based on my updated version of the Screening Method for Analysis of Relative Strength. For details on this method, see my book, pages 604-609. Below, I ranked 138 ETFs as of the posting date, above.
Research studies suggest that ETFs ranked in the top decile (highest tenth) of the list (with a rank of 90 and higher) may have a greater probability of outperforming the market in the months ahead.
Interpretation:
100 to 90, Buy
89 to 70, Hold
69 to 50, Neutral, Market Perform
49 to 30, Avoid
29 to 0, Sell
Please note that this screen is not investment advice. Your use of this site means that you have read, understood, and accepted my Disclaimer.
Weekly Rank, Name, Symbol
99 Silver Trust iS, SLV
99 Thailand MSCI iS, THD
98 Metals & Mining SPDR, XME
97 Chile MSCI iS, ECH
96 Semiconductor SPDR, XSD
96 Indonesia MV, IDX
95 Basic Materials DJ US, IYM
94 Semiconductor iS IGW, SOXX
94 South Africa Index, EZA
93 Growth MidCap 400 B, IJK
92 Growth SmallCap VIPERs, VBK
91 Growth SmallCap R 2000, IWO
91 Mexico Index, EWW
90 Sweden Index, EWD
89 Natural Resource iS GS, IGE
89 Growth BARRA Small Cap 600, IJT
88 Growth MidCap Russell, IWP
87 Taiwan Index, EWT
86 Consumer Discretionary SPDR, XLY
86 Energy VIPERs, VDE
85 Transportation Av DJ, IYT
84 Hong Kong Index, EWH
84 Russia MV, RSX
83 Turkey MSCI iS, TUR
82 Gold Shares S.T., GLD
81 Small Cap VIPERs, VB
81 Energy SPDR, XLE
80 South Korea Index, EWY
79 MidCap S&P 400 SPDRs, MDY
79 MidCap S&P 400 iS, IJH
78 Networking, IGN
77 SmallCap Russell 2000, IWM
76 SmallCap S&P 600, IJR
76 Growth LargeCap NASDAQ 100, QQQQ
75 Energy DJ, IYE
74 MidCap Russell, IWR
74 Microcap Russell, IWC
73 Malaysia Index, EWM
72 Agriculture DB PS, DBA
71 Emerging VIPERs, VWO
71 Materials SPDR, XLB
70 Value SmallCap VIPERS, VBR
69 Latin Am 40, ILF
69 Industrial SPDR, XLI
68 Value SmallCap S&P 600, RZV
67 Singapore Index, EWS
66 Emerging Markets, EEM
66 Info Tech VIPERs, VGT
65 Pacific ex-Japan, EPP
64 Growth VIPERs, VUG
64 Canada Index, EWC
63 Value SmallCap S&P 600 B, IJS
62 LargeCap Blend S&P=Weight R, RSP
61 Technology DJ US, IYW
61 Value MidCap S&P 400 B, IJJ
60 Value SmallCap Russell 2000, IWN
59 Growth 1000 Russell, IWF
59 Value MidCap Russell, IWS
58 Germany Index, EWG
57 Small Cap EAFE MSCI iS, SCZ
56 Australia Index, EWA
56 Growth S&P 500/BARRA, IVW
55 Water Resources, PHO
54 Technology SPDR, XLK
54 Realty Cohen & Steers, ICF
53 REIT VIPERs, VNQ
52 REIT Wilshire, RWR
51 Commodity Tracking, DBC
51 Brazil Index, EWZ
50 China LargeCap Growth G D H USX PS, PGJ
49 India Earnings WTree, EPI
49 Telecom DJ US, IYZ
48 Blend Total Market VIPERs, VTI
47 LargeCap Blend Russell 3000, IWV
46 Energy Global, IXC
46 Real Estate US DJ, IYR
45 LargeCap 1000 R, IWB
44 LargeCap VIPERs, VV
44 Emerging 50 BLDRS, ADRE
43 Growth EAFE MSCI, EFG
42 Pacific VIPERs, VPL
41 Austria Index, EWO
41 S&P 500 SPDRs LargeCap Blend, SPY
40 S&P 500 iS LargeCap Blend, IVV
39 Dividend Appreciation Vipers, VIG
39 India PS, PIN
38 Switzerland Index, EWL
37 Global ex US ACWI iS, ACWX
36 DIAMONDS (DJIA), DIA
36 Biotech SPDR, XBI
35 Dividend International, PID
34 Dividend DJ Select, DVY
34 United Kingdom Index, EWU
33 LargeCap Blend S&P 100, OEF
32 Homebuilders SPDR, XHB
31 Value 1000 Russell, IWD
31 Value LargeCap Dynamic PS, PWV
30 Capital Markets KWB ST, KCE
29 Japan Index, EWJ
29 Value S&P 500 B, IVE
28 Value VIPERs, VTV
27 EAFE Index, EFA
26 Dividend SPDR, SDY
26 European VIPERs, VGK
25 Dividend High Yield Equity PS, PEY
24 Global 100, IOO
24 China 25 iS, FXI
23 Consumer Staples SPDR, XLP
22 Europe 350 S&P Index, IEV
21 Belgium Index, EWK
21 Financials VIPERs, VFH
20 Oil, Crude, U.S. Oil Fund, USO
19 Netherlands Index, EWN
19 Value EAFE MSCI, EFV
18 Financial DJ US, IYF
17 Financial Preferred, PGF
16 Health Care SPDR, XLV
16 Utilities VIPERs, VPU
15 Financial SPDR, XLF
14 WilderHill Clean Energy PS, PBW
14 EMU Europe Index, EZU
13 Preferred Stock iS, PFF
12 Bond EmrgMkt JPM iS, EMB
11 Bond, High-Yield Junk, JNK
11 France Index, EWQ
10 Utilities SPDR, XLU
9 Bond, High-Yield Corporate, HYG
9 Financial Services DJ, IYG
8 Bond Ex-US Treas, BWX
7 Bond, TIPS, TIP
6 Bond, 10 Year Treasury, IEF
6 Bond, Corp, LQD
5 Bond, 1-3 Year Treasury, SHY
4 Bond, Aggregate, AGG
4 Bond Treasury Short-Term iS, SHV
3 Bond Muni ATM-Free S&P iS, MUB
2 Bond, 20+ Years Treasury, TLT
1 Italy Index, EWI
1 Spain Index, EWP
