Major stock price indexes rose to close above closing price highs of the previous 25 months and again confirm The Dow Theory Primary Tide Bull Market. The Primary Tide is too powerful to resist. “Don’t fight the tape.”
Energy stock sector Relative Strength Ratio (XLE/SPY) rose above 6-month highs.
Financial stock sector Relative Strength Ratio (XLF/SPY) rose above 3-week highs.
The Small Cap Russell 2000 Index/Large Cap Relative Strength Ratio (IWM/SPY) rose above 5-month highs.
The CRB Index of commodity prices rose above 2-year highs.
Crude Oil rose above 2-year highs.
Gold soared above previous all-time highs.
Silver/Gold Ratio rose further above 2-year highs.
Copper rose above previous 2-year highs.
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Spotlight on event stocks: Here is a stock screen I designed to pick out potential event stocks, both Bullish and Bearish. Sometimes, stocks with large changes in price and volume are revealed to be deal stocks, sooner or later, or are the subject of some other extraordinary events, positive or negative.
Bullish Stocks: Rising Price and Rising Volume
Ranked by Price Change * Volume Change
% Price Change, Symbol, Name
9.50% , FLR , FLUOR
6.63% , BSX , BOSTON SCIENT
6.30% , BK , BANK OF NEW YORK
2.13% , KCE , Capital Markets KWB ST, KCE
3.83% , SYMC , SYMANTEC
5.70% , BBT , BB&T
3.66% , RKH , Bank Regional H, RKH
0.87% , RFV , Value MidCap S&P 400, RFV
6.41% , WFC , WELLS FARGO
5.70% , BC , BRUNSWICK
4.43% , PNC , PNC FINL SVC
3.70% , C , CITIGROUP
1.86% , ITT , ITT INDS
1.94% , AIG , AMER INTL GROUP
3.46% , STT , STATE STREET
0.49% , IIH , Internet Infrastructure H, IIH
0.67% , RPG , Growth S&P 500, RPG
2.45% , BBY , BEST BUY
3.91% , HRB , H&R BLOCK
2.81% , GS , GOLDMAN SACHS
0.57% , PWJ , Growth Mid Cap Dynamic PS, PWJ
0.58% , KLD , LargeCap Blend Socially Responsible iS, KLD
1.32% , XSD , Semiconductor SPDR, XSD
1.60% , CR , CRANE
0.65% , IWN , Value SmallCap Russell 2000, IWN
0.54% , PWV , Value LargeCap Dynamic PS, PWV
2.00% , LSI , LSI LOGIC
3.45% , MS , MORGAN STANLEY
3.76% , SBUX , STARBUCKS
3.74% , USB , US BANCORP
0.77% , IDX , Indonesia MV, IDX
0.56% , IWD , Value 1000 Russell, IWD
3.09% , ZION , ZIONS
1.89% , TXT , TEXTRON
4.88% , MTG , MGIC INVESTMENT
3.26% , PLD , PROLOGIS TRUST
2.34% , ETFC , E*TRADE FINANCIAL
1.66% , CMA , COMERICA
0.66% , PWT , Growth SmallCap Dynamic PS, PWT
2.58% , X , US STEEL CORP
Bearish Stocks: Falling Price and Rising Volume
Ranked by Price Change * Volume Change
% Price Change, Symbol, Name
-1.34% , EZU , EMU Europe Index, EZU
-2.01% , EWK , Belgium Index, EWK
-3.68% , CBS , CBS CORP.
-2.31% , EWD , Sweden Index, EWD
-0.85% , BBH , Biotech H, BBH
-2.59% , MRK , MERCK & CO
-2.15% , FRX , FOREST LABS STK A
-0.97% , EWN , Netherlands Index, EWN
-2.76% , FITB , FIFTH THIRD BANC
-2.44% , KEY , KEYCORP
-1.12% , CEPH , Cephalon Inc
-2.23% , KFT , Kraft Foods Inc.
-0.46% , ADRU , Europe 100 BLDRS, ADRU
-3.63% , AGN , ALLERGAN
-0.32% , VDC , Consumer Staples VIPERs, VDC
-1.38% , RF , REGIONS FINAN
-1.38% , MWV , MEADWESTVACO
-2.40% , NWL , NEWELL RUBBER
-1.46% , LXK , LEXMARK INTL STK A
-1.56% , XL , XL CAPITAL STK A
-2.54% , RIMM , RESEARCH IN MOTION LTD
-3.65% , HGSI , Human Genome Sciences Inc
-1.63% , FEZ , Euro STOXX 50, FEZ
-1.74% , GILD , Gilead Sciences Inc
-3.48% , MI , MARSHAL & ILSLEY
-1.22% , TYC , TYCO INTL
-0.73% , TLH , Bond 10-20 Year US Treas, TLH
-0.76% , WYN , Wyndham Worldwide
-0.29% , PKI , PERKINELMER
-0.37% , IYH , Healthcare DJ, IYH
-2.83% , HAL , HALLIBURTON
-1.42% , CNP , CENTERPNT ENERGY
-1.28% , EWQ , France Index, EWQ
-0.18% , FDV , Value 40 Large Low P/E FT DB, FDV
-2.80% , SVU , SUPERVALU
-0.07% , KG , KING PHARM
-3.02% , LPX , LOUISIANA PAC
-0.16% , IAH , Internet Architecture H, IAH
-0.41% , DELL , DELL
-1.24% , VGK , European VIPERs, VGK
9 major U.S. stock sectors ranked in order of long-term relative strength:
Consumer Discretionary (XLY) Bullish, Over Weight. The Relative Strength Ratio (XLY/SPY) rose above 12-year highs on 11/3/10 and remains bullish. XLY has been at the top of my sector rankings for more than a year and has outperformed substantially. Absolute price rose above 3-year highs on 11/5/10 and remains bullish. Support 35.78, 33.94, 33.11, 32.66, 31.70, 29.80, 28.64, 28.21, and 26.62. Resistance 38.25 and 39.09.
Technology (XLK) Bullish, Over Weight. The Relative Strength Ratio (XLK/SPY) rose above 8-year highs on 11/3/10 and remains bullish. Absolute price of XLK rose above 2-year highs on 11/4/10 and remains bullish. Support 24.76, 23.64, 23.56, 22.68, 22.53, 21.60, 20.01, and 19.51. Resistance 25.69.
Materials (XLB) Neutral, Market Weight. The Relative Strength Ratio (XLB/SPY) rose above 9-month highs on 11/4/10 and is bullish. Absolute price rose above rose above 2-year highs on 11/5/10 and remains bullish. Support 35.36, 33.70, 32.36, 29.88, 29.43, and 27.67. Resistance 37.56 and 39.00.
Industrial (XLI) Neutral, Market Weight. The Relative Strength Ratio (XLI/SPY) fell below 7-week lows on 11/3/10 and remains neutral. Absolute price rose above 2-year highs on 11/5/10 and remains bullish. Support 32.59, 31.58, 30.79, 30.51, 30.32, 29.77, and 27.67. Resistance 35.00 and 36.16.
Energy (XLE) Neutral, Market Weight. The Relative Strength Ratio (XLE/SPY) rose above 6-month highs on 11/5/10 but remains technically neutral, with the 50-day SMA below the 200-day SMA. Absolute price rose above 2-year highs on 11/5/10 and remains bullish, with the rising 50-day SMA above the rising 200-day SMA. Support 60.21, 57.70, 55.68, 53.22, 50.33, 48.56, 46.16, and 43.66. Resistance 62.73, 69.95, and 78.10.
Consumer Staples (XLP) Bearish, Under Weight. The Relative Strength Ratio (XLP/SPY) fell below 4-month lows on 11/5/10 and remains bearish. Absolute price rose above 2-year highs on 11/4/10 and remains bullish. Support 28.92, 28.28, 28.04, 27.76, 27.63, 27.46, 26.34, 25.30, and 24.95. Resistance 29.00, 29.29 and 30.29.
Financial (XLF) Neutral, Market Weight. The Relative Strength Ratio (XLF/SPY) rose above 3-week highs on 11/5/10 and turned neutral. Absolute price of XLF rose above 5-month highs on 11/5/10 and remains neutral, with the 50-day SMA below the 200-day SMA. Support 14.75, 14.25, 13.29, and 13.08. Resistance 16.13, 16.90, 17.12, 17.16, and 17.87.
Utilities (XLU) Bearish, Under Weight. The Relative Strength Ratio (XLU/SPY) fell below 5-month lows on 11/5/10. Absolute price of XLU turned neutral on 11/1/10 when price crossed below the 50-day SMA, which remains above the rising 200-day SMA. Support 31.25, 30.76, 30.15, 29.66, 27.91, 27.44, and 25.76. Resistance 32.40.
Health Care (XLV) Bearish, Under Weight. The Relative Strength Ratio (XLV/SPY) fell below 6-month lows on 11/5/10 and remains bearish, as it has been most of the time since peaking on 2/23/09. Absolute price of XLV rose above 6-month highs on 11/4/10 and is now bullish. Support 30.70, 30.11, 29.87, 28.00, 27.49. Resistance 32.05, 32.18, 32.42, 32.69, 33.16, 33.37 and 33.74.
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Emerging Markets Stocks ETF (EEM) Relative Strength Ratio (EEM/SPY) rose above 2-week highs on 11/4/10 and remains bullish.
Foreign Stocks ETF (EFA) Relative Strength Ratio (EFA/SPY) rose above 2-week highs on 11/4/10 and remains bullish.
NASDAQ Composite/S&P 500 Relative Strength Ratio rose above 9-year highs on 11/2/10 and remains bullish. Absolute price rose above 2-year highs on 11/3/10 and remains bullish.
The Largest Cap S&P 100/S&P 500 Relative Strength Ratio (OEX/SPX) fell below 28-year lows on 11/2/10. The ratio has been trending lower since 8/3/10. Longer term, big caps have been relatively out of favor for more than 10 years, since 3/29/2000.
The Small Cap Russell 2000 Index/Large Cap Relative Strength Ratio (IWM/SPY) rose above 5-month highs on 11/5/10 and remains bullish. IWM/SPY corrected and consolidated major uptrend gains from 5/17/10 to 8/23/10.
The S&P MidCap 400/Large Cap Relative Strength Ratio (MDY/SPY) rose above 15-year highs on 9/30/10 and remains bullish. Absolute price rose above 2-year highs on 11/4/10 and remains bullish.
The CRB Index of commodity prices rose above 2-year highs.
Crude Oil nearest futures contract price rose above 2-year highs on 11/5/10, confirming a bullish major long-term price trend. Support 79.84, 78.86, 72.63, 70.76, 70.35, 69.51, 68.59, 67.15, 65.05, and 64.24. Resistance 90.51, 98.65, and 102.84.
Gold nearest futures contract price soared above previous all-time highs on 11/5/10. Trends in all time frames are confirmed bullish. Support 1315.6, 1297.0, 1274.8, 1270.5, 1232.4, 1210.9, 1191.5, and 1155.6. Resistance: none.
Gold Mining Stocks ETF (GDX) Relative Strength Ratio (relative to the Gold bullion ETF, GDX/GLD) rose above 5-week highs on 11/4/10 and is now bullish.
Silver/Gold Ratio rose further above 2-year highs on 11/5/10, again confirming a bullish trend. Silver has outperformed Gold substantially since 8/20/10.
Copper nearest futures contract price moved above previous 2-year highs on 11/5/10. Strength in Copper suggests confidence about prospects for the world economy, while weakness in Copper suggests doubts. Support 3.7035, 3.6445, 3.3930, 3.1775, 2.9285, 2.8555, 2.8445, and 2.72. Resistance 3.90, 4.0825, and 4.27.
U.S. Treasury Bond nearest futures contract price fell below the lows of the previous 3-trading days on 11/3/10, which is a bearish sign for the short term. The Bond broke down below 10-week lows on 10/27/10, confirming a bearish trend in that larger time frame. It appears possible that Bonds have topped for the intermediate-term trend. Support 129.18, 129.05, 126.01, 125.07, 124.19, 123.03, 121.28, 119.26, 118.24, 118.12, 115.15, 114.06. 113.04, and 112.15. Resistance 133.00, 135.12, 135.19, 136.31, 137.31, and 142.31.
Junk/Investment-Grade Corporate Bonds Relative Strength Ratio (JNK/LQD) rose above 5-month highs on 10/27/10. Absolute price rose above 2-year highs on 10/29/10 and remains bullish.
U.S. Treasury Inflation Protected / U.S. Treasury 7-10 Year Relative Strength Ratio (TIP/IEF) rose above 8-month highs on 10/14/10 and has been rising since 8/24/10. This implies that fixed-income investors have been choosing more inflation protection since 8/24/10.
The U.S. dollar nearest futures contract price fell below 11-month lows on 11/3/10, thereby demonstrating bearish long-term price momentum. Sentiment has been extremely bearish for months, but it appears that bearish fundamentals might be overcoming the bottom fishing temptation. Support 75.235, 74.27, and 70.80. Resistance 78.61, 80.505, 82.335, 83.315, 83.64, 83.96, 85.36, 86.71, 88.80, 89.22, 89.71, and 92.53.
Advisory Service Sentiment: There were 46.7% Bulls versus 24.4% Bears as of 11/3/10, according to the weekly Investors Intelligence survey of stock market newsletter advisors. The Bull/Bear ratio stands at a moderately above average 1.91, up from an extreme low of 0.78 on 9/1/10. That 0.78 was the lowest level of bullish sentiment in 17 months, since 3/25/09. Previously, the ratio had fallen substantially from and extreme peak at 3.36 set on 1/13/10, which was the highest bullish sentiment in 6 years. The 20-year range is 0.41 to 3.74, the median is 1.53, and the mean is 1.60.
VIX Fear Index collapsed to 17.92 on 11/5/10, down from 22.54 on 11/1/10. This indicates increasing bullish confidence and decreasing concern and hesitancy by options players to chase obvious price strength. VIX is a market estimate of expected constant 30-day volatility, calculated by weighting S&P 500 Index CBOE option bid/ask quotes spanning a wide range of strike prices for the two nearest expiration dates.
The Dow Theory reconfirmed a Primary Tide Bull Market as of 11/3/10, when both the Dow-Jones Industrial Average and the Dow-Jones Transportation Average closed above their closing price highs of the previous 25 months. The Dow Theory originally signaled the current Primary Tide Bull Market on 7/23/09, when both the Dow-Jones Industrial Average and the Dow-Jones Transportation Average closed above their closing price highs of the previous 6 months. Many other analysts were fooled into calling “Bear Market” by the big downside Secondary Reaction in May and June 2010, but my interpretation has been steadily Bullish on the Primary Trend.
S&P 500 Composite (SPX, 1,225.85) rose 4.79 points or 0.39% on Friday 11/5/10. SPX again closed above its closing price highs of the previous 25 months and again confirmed The Dow Theory Primary Tide Bull Market. The Primary Tide is too powerful to resist. “Don’t fight the tape.”
S&P 500 Cash Index Potential Resistance
1576.09, high of 10/11/2007
1552.76, high of 10/31/2007
1523.57, high of 12/11/2007
1498.85, high of 12/26/2007
1440.24, high of 5/19/2008
1406.32, high of 5/29/2008
1381.50, Fibonacci 78.6% of 2007-2009 range
1366.59, high of 6/17/2008
1335.63, high of 6/25/2008
1313.15, high of 8/11/2008
1274.42, high of 9/8/2008
1255.09, high of 9/12/2008
1238.81, Fibonacci 78.6% of 1,576.09 high
1228.74, Fibonacci 61.8% of 2007-2009 range
S&P 500 Cash Index Potential Support
1171.70, low of 10/27/10
1166.74, low of 10/20/10
1159.71, low of 10/19/10
1,151.41, low of 10/7/10
1,131.87, low of 10/4/10
1122.79, low of 9/23/2010
1114.63, low of 9/15/2010
1110.88, low of 9/10/2010
1091.15, low of 9/7/2010
1039.70, low of 8/27/10
1039.31, Fibonacci 23.6% of June-Aug. 2010 range
1010.91, low of 7/1/2010
1008.55, Fibonacci 38.2% of 2009-2010 range
991.97, low of 9/2/2009
978.51, low of 8/17/2009
956.23, high of 6/11/2009
943.29, Gann 50.0% of 2009-2010 range
878.04, Fibonacci 61.8% of 2009-2010 range
874.17, Gann 62.5% of 2009-2010 range
869.32, low of 7/8/2009
805.17, Gann 75.0% of 2009-2010 range
785.13, Fibonacci 78.6% of 2009-2010 range
666.79, intraday low of 3/6/2009
One-Day Ranking of Major ETFs, Ranked from Strongest to Weakest of the Day:
% Price Change, ETF Name, Symbol
2.70% Financial Services DJ, IYG
2.29% Financial SPDR, XLF
2.22% Silver Trust iS, SLV
2.13% Capital Markets KWB ST, KCE
2.09% Metals & Mining SPDR, XME
1.91% Financials VIPERs, VFH
1.84% Financial DJ US, IYF
1.32% Semiconductor SPDR, XSD
1.09% Realty Cohen & Steers, ICF
1.08% REIT VIPERs, VNQ
1.03% REIT Wilshire, RWR
1.00% Real Estate US DJ, IYR
0.88% Japan Index, EWJ
0.80% Basic Materials DJ US, IYM
0.79% Homebuilders SPDR, XHB
0.77% Indonesia MV, IDX
0.73% Thailand MSCI iS, THD
0.71% MidCap S&P 400 iS, IJH
0.71% Value MidCap S&P 400 B, IJJ
0.70% Value SmallCap VIPERS, VBR
0.69% MidCap S&P 400 SPDRs, MDY
0.67% WilderHill Clean Energy PS, PBW
0.67% Water Resources, PHO
0.66% Value S&P 500 B, IVE
0.65% Value SmallCap Russell 2000, IWN
0.64% Semiconductor iS IGW, SOXX
0.63% Growth MidCap 400 B, IJK
0.61% Pacific VIPERs, VPL
0.61% Small Cap VIPERs, VB
0.60% Industrial SPDR, XLI
0.59% Value VIPERs, VTV
0.59% Value MidCap Russell, IWS
0.57% MidCap Russell, IWR
0.56% SmallCap S&P 600, IJR
0.56% SmallCap Russell 2000, IWM
0.56% Value 1000 Russell, IWD
0.55% Growth SmallCap VIPERs, VBK
0.54% Value LargeCap Dynamic PS, PWV
0.53% Growth BARRA Small Cap 600, IJT
0.52% Mexico Index, EWW
0.51% Value SmallCap S&P 600, RZV
0.51% LargeCap Blend S&P=Weight R, RSP
0.50% Energy SPDR, XLE
0.50% Consumer Discretionary SPDR, XLY
0.49% Growth MidCap Russell, IWP
0.45% Blend Total Market VIPERs, VTI
0.43% Growth SmallCap R 2000, IWO
0.43% Oil, Crude, U.S. Oil Fund, USO
0.42% S&P 500 iS LargeCap Blend, IVV
0.42% Natural Resource iS GS, IGE
0.42% Commodity Tracking, DBC
0.42% Energy VIPERs, VDE
0.41% LargeCap VIPERs, VV
0.41% Microcap Russell, IWC
0.41% Chile MSCI iS, ECH
0.40% Value SmallCap S&P 600 B, IJS
0.39% Energy DJ, IYE
0.39% LargeCap Blend Russell 3000, IWV
0.38% S&P 500 SPDRs LargeCap Blend, SPY
0.37% LargeCap 1000 R, IWB
0.36% Materials SPDR, XLB
0.34% Energy Global, IXC
0.31% LargeCap Blend S&P 100, OEF
0.30% Hong Kong Index, EWH
0.27% Canada Index, EWC
0.26% Gold Shares S.T., GLD
0.24% India Earnings WTree, EPI
0.24% China LargeCap Growth G D H USX PS, PGJ
0.23% Growth VIPERs, VUG
0.22% Networking, IGN
0.17% Dividend Appreciation Vipers, VIG
0.16% Growth S&P 500/BARRA, IVW
0.14% Growth 1000 Russell, IWF
0.14% Singapore Index, EWS
0.12% Pacific ex-Japan, EPP
0.11% Australia Index, EWA
0.11% Dividend High Yield Equity PS, PEY
0.11% Dividend DJ Select, DVY
0.11% India PS, PIN
0.11% Dividend SPDR, SDY
0.10% Info Tech VIPERs, VGT
0.10% DIAMONDS (DJIA), DIA
0.09% Utilities VIPERs, VPU
0.08% Preferred Stock iS, PFF
0.07% Transportation Av DJ, IYT
0.00% Financial Preferred, PGF
0.00% Growth LargeCap NASDAQ 100, QQQQ
-0.01% South Africa Index, EZA
-0.02% Technology DJ US, IYW
-0.02% Emerging 50 BLDRS, ADRE
-0.03% Bond Treasury Short-Term iS, SHV
-0.03% Utilities SPDR, XLU
-0.04% Bond Muni ATM-Free S&P iS, MUB
-0.07% Taiwan Index, EWT
-0.08% Technology SPDR, XLK
-0.08% Bond, 1-3 Year Treasury, SHY
-0.11% China 25 iS, FXI
-0.11% Bond, High-Yield Corporate, HYG
-0.16% Global 100, IOO
-0.16% Emerging VIPERs, VWO
-0.18% Latin Am 40, ILF
-0.19% Emerging Markets, EEM
-0.23% Agriculture DB PS, DBA
-0.23% Biotech SPDR, XBI
-0.25% Global ex US ACWI iS, ACWX
-0.26% Dividend International, PID
-0.26% Growth EAFE MSCI, EFG
-0.28% Bond, Aggregate, AGG
-0.28% Turkey MSCI iS, TUR
-0.30% Small Cap EAFE MSCI iS, SCZ
-0.32% Bond, High-Yield Junk, JNK
-0.32% Bond, Corp, LQD
-0.33% Telecom DJ US, IYZ
-0.34% Bond, TIPS, TIP
-0.36% Russia MV, RSX
-0.40% Bond EmrgMkt JPM iS, EMB
-0.42% Malaysia Index, EWM
-0.42% Bond, 10 Year Treasury, IEF
-0.44% EAFE Index, EFA
-0.44% Switzerland Index, EWL
-0.50% United Kingdom Index, EWU
-0.51% Consumer Staples SPDR, XLP
-0.51% Brazil Index, EWZ
-0.60% Health Care SPDR, XLV
-0.61% South Korea Index, EWY
-0.82% Value EAFE MSCI, EFV
-0.85% Germany Index, EWG
-0.93% Bond Ex-US Treas, BWX
-0.97% Netherlands Index, EWN
-1.24% European VIPERs, VGK
-1.28% Europe 350 S&P Index, IEV
-1.28% France Index, EWQ
-1.34% EMU Europe Index, EZU
-1.39% Austria Index, EWO
-1.72% Bond, 20+ Years Treasury, TLT
-2.01% Belgium Index, EWK
-2.31% Sweden Index, EWD
-2.61% Italy Index, EWI
-3.25% Spain Index, EWP
