Consumer Discretionary stock sector absolute price rose further above 5-month highs and remains bullish.
Industrial stock sector Relative Strength Ratio (XLI/SPY) rose further above 2-year highs, while absolute price rose further above 5-month highs. Bullish.
Materials stock sector absolute price rose further above 5-month highs and remains bullish.
Utilities stock sector Relative Strength Ratio (XLU/SPY) fell below 3-month lows on 10/13/10 and remains neutral, below the falling 50-day SMA.
Foreign Stocks ETF (EFA) absolute price rose above 5-month closing price highs and remains bullish.
Gold price soared above previous all-time highs.
Silver/Gold Ratio rose further above 11-month highs.
Copper price rose further above 2-year highs.
S&P 500 Composite (SPX, 1,178.10) penetrated resistance at 1173.57, the high of 5/13/10, on Wednesday 10/13/10, thereby confirming again an intermediate-term, secondary uptrend, at least. SPX gained 8.33 points or 0.71%. Volume and price momentum indicators rose to confirm the rising price. We continue to assume that the bulls are in control until proved otherwise.
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Spotlight on event stocks: Here is a stock screen I designed to pick out potential event stocks, both Bullish and Bearish. Sometimes, stocks with large changes in price and volume are revealed to be deal stocks, sooner or later, or are the subject of some other extraordinary events, positive or negative.
Bullish Stocks: Rising Price and Rising Volume
Ranked by Price Change * Volume Change
% Price Change, Symbol, Name
9.79% , WMB , WILLIAMS
7.63% , TIN , TEMPLE INLAND
1.64% , JKK , Growth SmallCap iS M, JKK
0.39% , JKI , Value MidCap iS M, JKI
0.77% , JKG , MidCap Blend Core iS M, JKG
5.68% , YHOO , YAHOO
2.14% , KWT , Solar Energy MV, KWT
6.75% , UIS , UNISYS
3.70% , SIRI , Sirius Satellite
0.96% , UTH , Utilities H, UTH
4.46% , ZEUS , Olympic Steell, ZEUS
3.45% , DLX , DELUXE
2.45% , IYT , Transportation Av DJ, IYT
2.66% , BC , BRUNSWICK
1.53% , EWQ , France Index, EWQ
1.33% , JKL , Value SmallCap iS M, JKL
2.87% , PCL , PLUM CREEK TIMB
4.58% , MBI , MBIA
4.67% , KSU , Kansas City Southern, KSU
4.04% , ABK , AMBAC FINL GRP
4.71% , CTB , COOPER TIRE
2.66% , CR , CRANE
0.59% , XLG , LargeCap Rydex Rus Top 50, XLG
3.83% , SNV , SYNOVUS
2.11% , UPS , UNITED PARCEL STK B
1.20% , IXC , Energy Global, IXC
0.95% , BDH , Broadband H, BDH
2.87% , EPU , Peru MSCI iS, EPU
4.19% , CSX , CSX
1.64% , PZI , Micro Cap Zachs, PZI
4.18% , TLAB , TELLABS
2.05% , WLP , WELLPOINT HEALTH
2.18% , CPB , CAMPBELL SOUP
3.07% , HUM , HUMANA
1.62% , FEU , Value LargeCap Euro STOXX 50 DJ, FEU
2.48% , CSCO , CISCO SYSTEMS
3.15% , LPX , LOUISIANA PAC
2.50% , CAG , CONAGRA FOODS
2.37% , FXI , China 25 iS, FXI
0.78% , IWP , Growth MidCap Russell, IWP
Bearish Stocks: Falling Price and Rising Volume
Ranked by Price Change * Volume Change
% Price Change, Symbol, Name
-4.77% , HGSI , Human Genome Sciences Inc
-2.86% , BIG , BIG LOTS
-0.91% , MYY , Short 100% MidCap 400, MYY
-3.18% , HRB , H&R BLOCK
-4.21% , MI , MARSHAL & ILSLEY
-2.41% , LLTC , LINEAR TECH
-2.68% , INTC , INTEL
-3.50% , ADI , ANALOG DEVICES
-0.82% , PSQ , Short 100% QQQ, PSQ
-1.51% , CECO , CAREER EDUCATION CORP
-1.03% , DISH , EchoStar Communications
-1.39% , JPM , J P MORGAN CHASE
-0.77% , DV , DeVry, Inc.
-2.28% , RF , REGIONS FINAN
-1.53% , SDS , Short 200% S&P 500 PS, SDS
-0.69% , SH , Short 100% S&P 500, SH
-2.41% , STI , SUNTRUST BANKS
-2.18% , MCHP , Microchip Technology Incorporated
-1.01% , HBAN , HUNTINGTON
-1.04% , JCP , JC PENNEY
-1.95% , TXN , TEXAS INSTRUMENT
-0.96% , APOL , APOLLO GROUP
-1.17% , EK , EASTMAN KODAK
-1.70% , BAC , BANK OF AMERICA
-1.45% , DXD , Short 200% Dow 30 PS, DXD
-1.08% , CMA , COMERICA
-1.36% , ZION , ZIONS
-0.56% , CNP , CENTERPNT ENERGY
-1.43% , ALTR , ALTERA
-0.51% , PSI , Semiconductors, PSI
-1.59% , CMS , CMS ENERGY
-0.15% , TTH , Telecom H, TTH
-0.44% , AIV , APT INV MNGMT
-1.31% , HD , HOME DEPOT
-0.85% , TJX , TJX
-1.49% , JWN , NORDSTROM
-0.41% , VIA , VIACOM INC. (New)
-0.80% , AMGN , AMGEN
-0.35% , COF , CAPITAL ONE FNCL
-0.16% , EOG , EOG RESOURCES
9 major U.S. stock sectors ranked in order of long-term relative strength:
Consumer Discretionary (XLY) Bullish, Over Weight. The Relative Strength Ratio (XLY/SPY) rose to another new 3-month high on 10/8/10 and remains bullish. The Ratio remains above both SMAs and the 50-day SMA remains above the 200-day SMA. Absolute price rose further above 5-month highs on 10/13/10 and remains bullish, with the rising 50-day SMA above the rising 200-day SMA. Support 33.11, 32.66, 31.70, 29.80, 28.64, 28.21, and 26.62. Resistance 36.13, 38.25 and 39.09.
Industrial (XLI) Bullish, Over Weight. The Relative Strength Ratio (XLI/SPY) rose further above 2-year highs on 10/13/10 and remains bullish. Absolute price rose further above 5-month highs on 10/13/10 and remains bullish. Support 30.79, 30.51, 30.32, 29.77, and 27.67. Resistance 33.04, 35.00, and 36.16.
Materials (XLB) Bullish, Over Weight. The Relative Strength Ratio (XLB/SPY) crossed back above its rising 50-day SMA on 10/8/10, thereby turning bullish again. Absolute price rose further above 5-month highs on 10/13/10 and remains bullish. Support 32.36, 29.88, 29.43, and 27.67. Resistance 34.80, 35.47, and 37.56.
Technology (XLK) Neutral, Market Weight. The Relative Strength Ratio (XLK/SPY) turned bullish on 9/27/10 as the 50-day SMA crossed above the 200-day SMA. Absolute price of XLK rose further above 5-month highs on 10/13/10 and remains neutral, with the 50-day SMA below the 200-day SMA. Support 22.68, 22.53, 21.60, 20.01, and 19.51. Resistance 24.16, 24.68, and 25.69.
Energy (XLE) Neutral, Market Weight. The Relative Strength Ratio (XLE/SPY) rose above 5-month highs on 10/11/10 but remains technically neutral. Absolute price rose further above 5-month highs on 10/13/10 but remains technically neutral. On both charts, the 50-day SMAs are below the 200-day SMAs. Price peaked at 62.30 on 4/26/10. Support 55.68, 53.22, 50.33, 48.56, 46.16, and 43.66. Resistance 58.11, 59.84, 62.30, 62.73, 69.95, and 78.10.
Consumer Staples (XLP) Neutral, Market Weight. The Relative Strength Ratio (XLP/SPY) remains neutral, consolidating gains between its 50-day and 200-day SMAs. Absolute price rose further above 2-year highs on 10/13/10 and remains bullish. Support 28.04, 27.76, 27.63, 27.46, 26.34, 25.30, and 24.95. Resistance 28.75, 29.29 and 30.29.
Utilities (XLU) Neutral, Market Weight. The Relative Strength Ratio (XLU/SPY) fell below 3-month lows on 10/13/10 and remains neutral, below the falling 50-day SMA. Absolute price of XLU rose above 10-month highs on 10/13/10 and remains bullish, with the rising 50-day SMA above the rising 200-day SMA. Support 31.27, 30.76, 30.15, 29.66, 27.91, 27.44, and 25.76. Resistance 32.08.
Health Care (XLV) Bearish, Under Weight. The Relative Strength Ratio (XLV/SPY) fell below 5-week lows on 10/12/10 and remains bearish, as it has been most of the time since peaking on 2/23/09. Absolute price of XLV remains neutral. Price peaked at 33.16 on 1/20/10. Support 30.11, 29.87, 28.00, 27.49. Resistance 32.05, 32.18, 32.42, 32.69, 33.16, 33.37 and 33.74.
Financial (XLF) Bearish, Under Weight. The Relative Strength Ratio (XLF/SPY) fell to a new 17-month low on 9/29/10 and remains bearish. Absolute price of XLF is neutral, below its 200-day SMA and with the 50-day SMA below the 200-day SMA. XLF has been bearish most days after peaking at 17.12 on 4/15/10. Support 13.29 and 13.08. Resistance 15.09, 15.67, 16.13, 16.90, 17.12, 17.16, and 17.87.
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Emerging Markets Stocks ETF (EEM) Relative Strength Ratio (EEM/SPY) rose further above 7-year highs on 10/4/10, again confirming a secular (major) bullish trend. Absolute price rose above 2-year highs to confirm RS.
Foreign Stocks ETF (EFA) Relative Strength Ratio (EFA/SPY) rose above 8-month highs on 10/6/10 and remains bullish, with the rising 50-day SMA above the falling 200-day SMA. Absolute price rose above 5-month closing price highs on 10/13/10 and remains bullish, with the rising 50-day SMA above the rising 200-day SMA.
NASDAQ Composite/S&P 500 Relative Strength Ratio has been technically neutral most of the time since peaking on 5/17/10. The 50-day SMA remains below the 200-day SMA.
The Largest Cap S&P 100/S&P 500 Relative Strength Ratio (OEX/SPX) fell further below 3-month lows on 9/30/10. The ratio has been trending lower since 8/3/10. Longer term, big caps have been relatively out of favor for more than 10 years, since 3/29/2000.
The Small Cap Russell 2000 Index/Large Cap Relative Strength Ratio (IWM/SPY) rose further above 2-month highs on 10/8/10 but remains technically neutral, with the rising 50-day SMA moderately below the rising 200-day SMA.
The S&P MidCap 400/Large Cap Relative Strength Ratio (MDY/SPY) rose above 15-year highs on 9/30/10 and remains bullish. Absolute price rose above 5-month highs on 10/13/10 and remains bullish, with the rising 50-day SMA above the rising 200-day SMA.
Crude Oil nearest futures contract price continued to consolidate gains after rising above 5-month highs on 10/7/10. Longer term, Oil has been consolidating more or less sideways/neutral in a choppy trading range since topping at 87.15 on 5/3/10. Support 72.63, 70.76, 70.35, 69.51, 68.59, 67.15, 65.05, and 64.24. Resistance 84.43, 84.55, 87.15, 90.51, 98.65, and 102.84.
Gold nearest futures contract price soared above previous all-time highs on 10/13/10. The secular trend remains bullish. Support 1341.1, 1325.6, 1297.0, 1274.8, 1270.5, 1232.4, 1210.9, 1191.5, and 1155.6. Resistance: none.
Gold Mining Stocks ETF (GDX) Relative Strength Ratio (relative to the Gold bullion ETF, GDX/GLD) have been disappointing in recent weeks, underperforming after rising above 8-month highs on 9/22/10, for a bull trap.
Silver/Gold Ratio rose further above 11-month highs on 10/13/10, again confirming a bullish trend. Silver has outperformed Gold significantly since 8/20/10.
Copper nearest futures contract price rose further above 2-year highs on 10/13/10, again confirming a major uptrend. Strength in Copper suggests confidence about prospects for the world economy, while weakness in Copper suggests doubts. Support 3.6445, 3.3930, 3.1775, 2.9285, 2.8555, 2.8445, and 2.72. Resistance 4.0825 and 4.27.
U.S. Treasury Bond nearest futures contract price fell below 8-day lows on 10/13/10, confirming a change in the short-term trend to the downside, at least. In addition, there could be a chance for a potential double top around recent highs of 135.12 and 135.19. Support 132.09, 131.21, 129.05, 126.01, 125.07, 124.19, 123.03, 121.28, 119.26, 118.24, 118.12, 115.15, 114.06. 113.04, and 112.15. Resistance 135.19, 136.31, 137.31, and 142.31.
Junk/Investment-Grade Corporate Bonds Relative Strength Ratio (JNK/LQD) rose above 2-month highs on 10/13/10 but remains neutral, with the falling 50-day SMA below the falling 200-day SMA.
U.S. Treasury Inflation Protected / U.S. Treasury 7-10 Year Relative Strength Ratio (TIP/IEF) rose above 3-month highs on 10/13/10 and has been rising since 8/24/10. This implies that fixed-income investors have been choosing more inflation protection since 8/24/10.
The U.S. dollar nearest futures contract price sagged below the Tuesday low on Wednesday 10/13/10. On Monday, 10/11/10, USD fell below 9-month lows, thereby confirming a bearish trend for the short term and intermediate term. Long term, USD may be in a secular downtrend and merely consolidating losses since bottoming at 70.805 in March 2008. Support 77.05, 76.74, 75.90, 74.27, and 70.805. Resistance 82.335, 83.315, 83.64, 83.96, 85.36, 86.71, 88.80, 89.22, 89.71, and 92.53.
Advisory Service Sentiment: There were 47.2% Bulls versus 24.7% Bears as of 10/13/10, according to the weekly Investors Intelligence survey of stock market newsletter advisors. The Bull/Bear ratio rose to 1.91, up from 0.78 on 9/1/10. That 0.78 was the lowest level of bullish sentiment in 17 months, since 3/25/09. Previously, the ratio had fallen substantially from its peak at 3.36 set on 1/13/10, which was the highest bullish sentiment in 6 years. The 20-year range is 0.41 to 3.74, the median is 1.53, and the mean is 1.60.
VIX Fear Index plunged below 5-month lows, breaking 19 on 10/11/10, down from 48 in May. A low and falling VIX suggests increasing bullish complacency. VIX is a market estimate of expected constant 30-day volatility, calculated by weighting S&P 500 Index CBOE option bid/ask quotes spanning a wide range of strike prices for the two nearest expiration dates.
The Dow Theory suggests a Primary Tide Bull Market, in my interpretation. The Dow Theory last confirmed a Bullish Major Trend on 4/26/10, when both the Dow-Jones Industrial Average and the Dow-Jones Transportation Average closed above their closing price highs of the previous 18 months. The Dow Theory signaled the current Primary Tide Bull Market on 7/23/09, when both the Dow-Jones Industrial Average and the Dow-Jones Transportation Average closed above their closing price highs of the previous 6 months. That 7/23/09 bullish signal reversed the previous bearish signal: the two Averages signaled a Primary Tide Bear Market on 11/21/07, when both Averages closed below their closing price lows of August 2007. On Friday 9/24/10, the Dow-Jones Industrial Average rose to a new 4-month closing price high and on Tuesday 9/28/10 the Dow-Jones Transportation Average confirmed by making a new 4-month closing price high. This signals an intermediate-term Secondary uptrend, according to The Dow Theory.
S&P 500 Composite (SPX, 1,178.10) penetrated resistance at 1173.57, the high of 5/13/10, on Wednesday 10/13/10, thereby confirming again an intermediate-term, secondary uptrend, at least. SPX gained 8.33 points or 0.71%. Volume and price momentum indicators rose to confirm the rising price. We continue to assume that the bulls are in control until proved otherwise.
S&P 500 Cash Index Potential Resistance
1576.09, high of 10/11/2007
1552.76, high of 10/31/2007
1523.57, high of 12/11/2007
1498.85, high of 12/26/2007
1440.24, high of 5/19/2008
1406.32, high of 5/29/2008
1381.50, Fibonacci 78.6% of 2007-2009 range
1366.59, high of 6/17/2008
1335.63, high of 6/25/2008
1313.15, high of 8/11/2008
1274.42, high of 9/8/2008
1255.09, high of 9/12/2008
1238.81, Fibonacci 78.6% of 1,576.09 high
1228.74, Fibonacci 61.8% of 2007-2009 range
1220.03, high of 9/25/2008
1219.80, high of 4/26/2010
S&P 500 Cash Index Potential Support
1,151.41, low of 10/7/10
1,131.87, low of 10/4/10
1122.79, low of 9/23/2010
1114.63, low of 9/15/2010
1110.88, low of 9/10/2010
1091.15, low of 9/7/2010
1039.70, low of 8/27/10
1039.31, Fibonacci 23.6% of June-Aug. 2010 range
1010.91, low of 7/1/2010
1008.55, Fibonacci 38.2% of 2009-2010 range
991.97, low of 9/2/2009
978.51, low of 8/17/2009
956.23, high of 6/11/2009
943.29, Gann 50.0% of 2009-2010 range
878.04, Fibonacci 61.8% of 2009-2010 range
874.17, Gann 62.5% of 2009-2010 range
869.32, low of 7/8/2009
805.17, Gann 75.0% of 2009-2010 range
785.13, Fibonacci 78.6% of 2009-2010 range
666.79, intraday low of 3/6/2009
One-Day Ranking of Major ETFs, Ranked from Strongest to Weakest of the Day:
% Price Change, ETF Name, Symbol
3.15% Chile MSCI iS, ECH
2.85% Silver Trust iS, SLV
2.48% India PS, PIN
2.45% Transportation Av DJ, IYT
2.41% India Earnings WTree, EPI
2.37% China 25 iS, FXI
2.30% Brazil Index, EWZ
2.28% WilderHill Clean Energy PS, PBW
2.19% China LargeCap Growth G D H USX PS, PGJ
2.10% Water Resources, PHO
1.98% Germany Index, EWG
1.85% Spain Index, EWP
1.84% Italy Index, EWI
1.84% Emerging Markets, EEM
1.83% Metals & Mining SPDR, XME
1.83% Netherlands Index, EWN
1.83% Indonesia MV, IDX
1.82% South Africa Index, EZA
1.75% EMU Europe Index, EZU
1.74% Europe 350 S&P Index, IEV
1.74% Microcap Russell, IWC
1.74% Latin Am 40, ILF
1.70% Singapore Index, EWS
1.65% Industrial SPDR, XLI
1.63% Growth BARRA Small Cap 600, IJT
1.63% Thailand MSCI iS, THD
1.61% Value SmallCap Russell 2000, IWN
1.60% Materials SPDR, XLB
1.60% Value SmallCap S&P 600, RZV
1.60% Gold Shares S.T., GLD
1.60% Belgium Index, EWK
1.58% Emerging 50 BLDRS, ADRE
1.58% Natural Resource iS GS, IGE
1.57% Emerging VIPERs, VWO
1.55% Basic Materials DJ US, IYM
1.53% France Index, EWQ
1.52% SmallCap Russell 2000, IWM
1.52% Value SmallCap S&P 600 B, IJS
1.51% SmallCap S&P 600, IJR
1.49% European VIPERs, VGK
1.47% Growth SmallCap R 2000, IWO
1.43% Oil, Crude, U.S. Oil Fund, USO
1.42% Mexico Index, EWW
1.39% Sweden Index, EWD
1.35% Growth SmallCap VIPERs, VBK
1.35% Value SmallCap VIPERS, VBR
1.34% Canada Index, EWC
1.30% United Kingdom Index, EWU
1.26% Dividend International, PID
1.25% Small Cap VIPERs, VB
1.24% Global ex US ACWI iS, ACWX
1.23% South Korea Index, EWY
1.22% Energy SPDR, XLE
1.20% Energy Global, IXC
1.16% Growth EAFE MSCI, EFG
1.16% Hong Kong Index, EWH
1.13% EAFE Index, EFA
1.12% Energy VIPERs, VDE
1.11% Small Cap EAFE MSCI iS, SCZ
1.10% Energy DJ, IYE
1.10% Austria Index, EWO
1.09% Growth S&P 500/BARRA, IVW
1.07% Value EAFE MSCI, EFV
1.05% Networking, IGN
1.04% Global 100, IOO
1.04% REIT VIPERs, VNQ
1.02% Malaysia Index, EWM
0.99% Real Estate US DJ, IYR
0.98% Growth VIPERs, VUG
0.97% Info Tech VIPERs, VGT
0.97% Value MidCap S&P 400 B, IJJ
0.97% Realty Cohen & Steers, ICF
0.96% Technology DJ US, IYW
0.96% Value MidCap Russell, IWS
0.96% Growth MidCap 400 B, IJK
0.96% REIT Wilshire, RWR
0.95% MidCap S&P 400 iS, IJH
0.95% MidCap S&P 400 SPDRs, MDY
0.89% Turkey MSCI iS, TUR
0.85% Consumer Staples SPDR, XLP
0.84% Growth 1000 Russell, IWF
0.84% Dividend DJ Select, DVY
0.82% Dividend High Yield Equity PS, PEY
0.82% Growth LargeCap NASDAQ 100, QQQQ
0.81% Technology SPDR, XLK
0.80% LargeCap Blend S&P=Weight R, RSP
0.79% MidCap Russell, IWR
0.78% Blend Total Market VIPERs, VTI
0.78% Growth MidCap Russell, IWP
0.78% LargeCap Blend Russell 3000, IWV
0.78% S&P 500 SPDRs LargeCap Blend, SPY
0.76% Pacific ex-Japan, EPP
0.75% LargeCap VIPERs, VV
0.74% LargeCap 1000 R, IWB
0.74% S&P 500 iS LargeCap Blend, IVV
0.73% DIAMONDS (DJIA), DIA
0.71% Health Care SPDR, XLV
0.69% Australia Index, EWA
0.68% Dividend SPDR, SDY
0.68% LargeCap Blend S&P 100, OEF
0.67% Taiwan Index, EWT
0.67% Dividend Appreciation Vipers, VIG
0.64% Russia MV, RSX
0.64% Value 1000 Russell, IWD
0.62% Capital Markets KWB ST, KCE
0.60% Bond, TIPS, TIP
0.52% Value VIPERs, VTV
0.51% Homebuilders SPDR, XHB
0.50% Telecom DJ US, IYZ
0.48% Value S&P 500 B, IVE
0.48% Commodity Tracking, DBC
0.45% Value LargeCap Dynamic PS, PWV
0.42% Bond EmrgMkt JPM iS, EMB
0.38% Utilities SPDR, XLU
0.37% Utilities VIPERs, VPU
0.36% Pacific VIPERs, VPL
0.34% Financial DJ US, IYF
0.33% Bond, High-Yield Corporate, HYG
0.29% Financials VIPERs, VFH
0.28% Preferred Stock iS, PFF
0.25% Switzerland Index, EWL
0.25% Japan Index, EWJ
0.15% Consumer Discretionary SPDR, XLY
0.13% Bond Ex-US Treas, BWX
0.09% Financial SPDR, XLF
0.01% Bond, 1-3 Year Treasury, SHY
0.00% Bond, 10 Year Treasury, IEF
0.00% Financial Preferred, PGF
0.00% Financial Services DJ, IYG
-0.01% Bond, Aggregate, AGG
-0.03% Biotech SPDR, XBI
-0.04% Bond Muni ATM-Free S&P iS, MUB
-0.05% Bond, Corp, LQD
-0.16% Bond, 20+ Years Treasury, TLT
-0.19% Semiconductor iS GS, IGW
-0.26% Semiconductor SPDR, XSD
-0.59% Agriculture DB PS, DBA
