Based on prices as of the close on Friday, September 3, 2010.
5-Year Outperformance by the
Top 10 Exchange Traded Funds
Weekly Rankings of Major Trend Relative Strength
My weekly Top 10 ETFs ranked by the Major Trend Relative Strength outperformed the S&P 500 by 108 percentage points since August, 2004, in simulation. Click here for a graph of simulated performance.
To arrive at my Top 10 ETF picks, I first calculate a six-month rate of change (approximately) of price. Next, I add in filters to dampen random noise. I rank all the ETFs in my universe from highest rate of change to lowest rate of change. Finally, I pick the highest 10 ETFs each week. These Top 10 are the best performing ETFs, the ones with the best major trend momentum.
Please note that this is a high-volatility strategy: the stocks that go up the most when the stock market is in a Bullish trend often go down the most during market corrections to the downside.
Changes to this research study as of 3/12/10: In an effort to improve this study, I have deleted short and leveraged ETFs, because they have delivered unfavorable “tracking error” in simulated real-time performance. In other words, they have failed to accurately mirror the performance of the indexes they are intended to track, over periods measured in multiple weeks and months. Therefore, I have concluded that they appear to be unsuitable for holding periods measured in weeks, making them incompatible with the design of this research study.
In addition, I have deleted coverage of relatively inactive ETFs that trade fewer than 90,000 shares a day. And I have added a few active foreign and bond ETFs in order to broaden diversification.
Please note that this Top 10 list is a research study and is not investment advice. Your use of this site means that you have read, understood, and accepted my Disclaimer.
Weekly Rank, Name, Symbol
99 Thailand MSCI iS, THD
99 Chile MSCI iS, ECH
98 Indonesia MV, IDX
97 Malaysia Index, EWM
96 Turkey MSCI iS, TUR
96 Realty Cohen & Steers, ICF
95 REIT Wilshire, RWR
94 REIT VIPERs, VNQ
94 Silver Trust iS, SLV
93 Real Estate US DJ, IYR
. . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . .
Based on prices as of the close on Friday, September 3, 2010.
Exchange Traded Funds
Weekly Rankings of Major Trend Relative Strength
Each week, at the end of the week, I rank 138 Exchange Traded Funds (ETFs), based on my updated version of the Screening Method for Analysis of Relative Strength. For details on this method, see my book, pages 604-609. Below, I ranked 138 ETFs as of the posting date, above.
Research studies suggest that ETFs ranked in the top decile (highest tenth) of the list (with a rank of 90 and higher) may have a greater probability of outperforming the market in the months ahead.
Interpretation:
100 to 90, Buy
89 to 70, Hold
69 to 50, Neutral, Market Perform
49 to 30, Avoid
29 to 0, Sell
Please note that this screen is not investment advice. Your use of this site means that you have read, understood, and accepted my Disclaimer.
Weekly Rank, Name, Symbol
99 Thailand MSCI iS, THD
99 Chile MSCI iS, ECH
98 Indonesia MV, IDX
97 Malaysia Index, EWM
96 Turkey MSCI iS, TUR
96 Realty Cohen & Steers, ICF
95 REIT Wilshire, RWR
94 REIT VIPERs, VNQ
94 Silver Trust iS, SLV
93 Real Estate US DJ, IYR
92 Singapore Index, EWS
91 South Africa Index, EZA
91 India Earnings WTree, EPI
90 Gold Shares S.T., GLD
89 Financial Preferred, PGF
89 Emerging VIPERs, VWO
88 South Korea Index, EWY
87 Sweden Index, EWD
86 Preferred Stock iS, PFF
86 Latin Am 40, ILF
85 Basic Materials DJ US, IYM
84 India PS, PIN
84 Emerging Markets, EEM
83 Bond EmrgMkt JPM iS, EMB
82 Telecom DJ US, IYZ
81 Consumer Discretionary SPDR, XLY
81 Bond, 20+ Years Treasury, TLT
80 Hong Kong Index, EWH
79 Pacific ex-Japan, EPP
79 Growth MidCap 400 B, IJK
78 Transportation Av DJ, IYT
77 Agriculture DB PS, DBA
76 Switzerland Index, EWL
76 Utilities SPDR, XLU
75 Russia MV, RSX
74 Utilities VIPERs, VPU
74 Brazil Index, EWZ
73 Value MidCap Russell, IWS
72 Australia Index, EWA
71 MidCap Russell, IWR
71 Taiwan Index, EWT
70 Growth MidCap Russell, IWP
69 Canada Index, EWC
69 China LargeCap Growth G D H USX PS, PGJ
68 MidCap S&P 400 iS, IJH
67 Industrial SPDR, XLI
66 MidCap S&P 400 SPDRs, MDY
66 Growth SmallCap VIPERs, VBK
65 Materials SPDR, XLB
64 LargeCap Blend S&P=Weight R, RSP
64 Dividend International, PID
63 Bond, 10 Year Treasury, IEF
62 Mexico Index, EWW
61 Dividend SPDR, SDY
61 Dividend DJ Select, DVY
60 Small Cap VIPERs, VB
59 Bond, Corp, LQD
59 Metals & Mining SPDR, XME
58 Growth LargeCap NASDAQ 100, QQQQ
57 Growth BARRA Small Cap 600, IJT
56 Bond Ex-US Treas, BWX
56 Value MidCap S&P 400 B, IJJ
55 Emerging 50 BLDRS, ADRE
54 Value SmallCap VIPERS, VBR
54 Small Cap EAFE MSCI iS, SCZ
53 United Kingdom Index, EWU
52 Growth SmallCap R 2000, IWO
51 Consumer Staples SPDR, XLP
51 Dividend High Yield Equity PS, PEY
50 Networking, IGN
49 SmallCap S&P 600, IJR
49 Bond Muni ATM-Free S&P iS, MUB
48 SmallCap Russell 2000, IWM
47 Value LargeCap Dynamic PS, PWV
46 Bond, Aggregate, AGG
46 DIAMONDS (DJIA), DIA
45 Global ex US ACWI iS, ACWX
44 Growth EAFE MSCI, EFG
44 Dividend Appreciation Vipers, VIG
43 Pacific VIPERs, VPL
42 Bond, High-Yield Corporate, HYG
41 Bond, TIPS, TIP
41 Growth VIPERs, VUG
40 Blend Total Market VIPERs, VTI
39 Growth 1000 Russell, IWF
39 LargeCap Blend Russell 3000, IWV
38 European VIPERs, VGK
37 LargeCap 1000 R, IWB
36 Bond, High-Yield Junk, JNK
36 Value SmallCap S&P 600 B, IJS
35 LargeCap VIPERs, VV
34 Growth S&P 500/BARRA, IVW
34 China 25 iS, FXI
33 Value 1000 Russell, IWD
32 S&P 500 iS LargeCap Blend, IVV
31 S&P 500 SPDRs LargeCap Blend, SPY
31 Value SmallCap Russell 2000, IWN
30 Value VIPERs, VTV
29 Value S&P 500 B, IVE
29 Technology SPDR, XLK
28 Natural Resource iS GS, IGE
27 Belgium Index, EWK
26 Biotech SPDR, XBI
26 EAFE Index, EFA
25 Info Tech VIPERs, VGT
24 Technology DJ US, IYW
24 Europe 350 S&P Index, IEV
23 LargeCap Blend S&P 100, OEF
22 Bond, 1-3 Year Treasury, SHY
21 Global 100, IOO
21 Financials VIPERs, VFH
20 Bond Treasury Short-Term iS, SHV
19 Value EAFE MSCI, EFV
19 Financial DJ US, IYF
18 Microcap Russell, IWC
17 Netherlands Index, EWN
16 Germany Index, EWG
16 Semiconductor SPDR, XSD
15 Energy VIPERs, VDE
14 Homebuilders SPDR, XHB
14 Commodity Tracking, DBC
13 Financial SPDR, XLF
12 Energy SPDR, XLE
11 Health Care SPDR, XLV
11 Japan Index, EWJ
10 Energy DJ, IYE
9 Value SmallCap S&P 600, RZV
9 Austria Index, EWO
8 France Index, EWQ
7 Energy Global, IXC
6 Semiconductor iS GS, IGW
6 EMU Europe Index, EZU
5 Water Resources, PHO
4 Spain Index, EWP
4 Financial Services DJ, IYG
3 WilderHill Clean Energy PS, PBW
2 Capital Markets KWB ST, KCE
1 Italy Index, EWI
1 Oil, Crude, U.S. Oil Fund, USO
