Monday closed the day green across the broader markets and on light volume. This is our August melt up on no volume action continuing. Which is very normal to see, the FOMC meeting Tuesday could help with that though and bring in a little more conviction to get us through August. The TRIN closed at 1.01 just slightly bearish and the VIX at 22.14, which left the day in a tiny range. Gold closed down $2.30 to $1203 and oil up 78 cents to $81.48 a barrel.
Into Tuesday the market is once again in a tiny range, but we did close the day on the highs and just over last weeks highs for the NDX and COMPX. The SPX and Dow closed just into last weeks highs. There isn’t a lot of bet making ahead of the Fed’s meeting, which is causing trade to stay very tentative. Plus it is August, we never expect a lot of anything in August. The good news is we are managing through August now and this too shall pass. The Fed is expected to leave its federal funds rate near zero, however another round of quantitative easing with the Fed buying Treasury Notes and securities for some additional liquidity into the system. That would likely excite the markets and let the bulls run.
Futures did not test the pivots today, that was hard to not scratch my head about. But that leaves us to look for the daily and weekly into Tuesday still to get a look. Last weeks 1127.75 highs need to open for a test into 1131.75, a break there we look for 1166.75 to test. Holding over 1098.25 will hold the bulls territory, 1093.25 drops the bears will be likely to come in and push us back to 1084.50 swing low and onto 1080.75. The NQ over 1919.25 we look for an advance onto 1979.50. NQ holding 1880 lends a hand to the bulls to run to those higher levels, a drop of 1880 we look for 1854.75.
Economic data for the week (underlined means more likely to be a mkt mover): Tuesday 8:30 Prelim Nonfarm Productivity, 8:30 Prelim Unit Labor Costs, 10:00 IBD/TIPP Economic Optimism, 10:00 Wholesale Inventories, 2:15 FOMC Statement, 2:15 Federal Funds Rate. Wednesday 8:30 Trade Balance, 10:30 Crude Oil Inventories, 2:00 Federal Budget Balance. Thursday 8:30 Unemployment Claims, 8:30 Import Prices, 10:00 FOMC Member Duke Speaks, 10:30 Natural Gas Storage. Friday 8:30 Core CPI, 8:30 Core Retail Sales, 8:30 Retail Sales, 8:30 CPI, 9:55 Prelim UoM Consumer Sentiment, 9:55 Prelim UoM Inflation Expectations, 10:00 Business Inventories, 11:30 FOMC Member Hoenig Speaks.
Some earnings for the week (keep in mind companies can change last minute: Tuesday pre market SMG, and after the bell CREE, URS, DIS. Wednesday pre market CSC, M, and after the bell CSCO, PAAS, SLW, TK. Thursday pre market EAT, KSS, PRGO, WEN and after the bell ADSK, BBI, JWN, NVDA, TRMA. Friday pre market ADES, CTFO, JCP, and nothing after the bell.
ES (S&P 500 e-mini) Tuesday’s pivot 1123.50, weekly pivot 1116.50. Intraday support: 1117.75, 1112.50, 1108.50, 1103.75, 1100.50, 1098.25 gap fill. Resistance: 1126.75-1127.75, 1132, 1135.50, 1137.75-1138.25, 1144.50, 1149.25
