What a surprise, Russia clarifies and wants to delay the export ban until Sep, so they can finish 700K tonnes of wheat on the rails or ready to ship. I wonder if Putin got long some wheat calls a few days ago, and just let them go last night. That’s one way to finance a budget. But that’s just my speculation…
Wheat was 50 higher when i went to bed last night, this morning its already ten lower. Hmmm
On a second note, one of my indicators the top was in was if CNBC did any story on wheat, or the grain “rally”.
5 weeks ago with wheat at 450 no one was talking about a a Russian Drought. 3 dollars later, and we have the Wall Street Journal out bullish, and the absolute contra-trend indicator follow this lead.
http://www.cnbc.com/id/38584869
Go to the above link and see what Cramer said last night. When the story hits Cable and news shows, its time to bail…
We may have a big correction to buy, or we may just fall to pieces. In any event, I would want to be neutral to short over the weekend.
On a personal note, thankfully I did not get filled on my wheat calls last night…
You see, I am very human as well, and its no accident that i got bullish and threw in the towel at the worst possible moment. I certainly encourage you to read my comments with a grain of salt.
Volatility will give us many chances to catch a move. Bulls make money, bears make money, pigs get slaughtered because they don’t respect the risk.
As for the US unemployment number, it was no big surprise. We lost 133k jobs. The temporary census jobs expired. Unemployment remains the elephant in the room.
I am glad I am not the President. No matter what, the buck stops on his desk. I do not know for how much longer Obama and Biden can blame it all on Bush. Perhaps they can go all the way back to Regan… At some point, they will have to deal with it on a personal level.
I would be inclined to step away from stock indexes. For a spec play, I would buy some out of the money puts, on the outside chance we can have a 30 percent pullback from this recent 1000 point move. That equates to 300 point downside target.
Good Trading
