Monday brought a nice rally day to the broader markets. In the last 10 weeks the market has had 5 consecutive down Monday’s and now today markets the 5th consecutive up Monday. The volume was very light on this lift, which concerns me as usual. The VIX closed at 22.01 and the TRIN very bullish at .39. Gold closed down $1.80 to $1182.10 and oil up $2.39 to $81.34, back to levels we saw in May.
The Nasdaq Composite closed just under the July 27th swing high, the Nas 100 right into that swing high. The S&P 500 and the Dow closed just over the July 27th swing high and the Dow even closed over the June highs. The lift didn’t quite put the daily charts into overbought territory. However, the intraday 65 minute chart did reach overbought territory and that leaves the market looking for a pullback. Another gap up would really exhaust the move, a gap down would work that off and let the bulls refuel.
The futures did not test daily or weekly pivots today. The ES is just under 6/21 highs 1129.5 and 1131.75 61.8% fib resistance. With the daily chart still grinding out an inverted head and shoulders that 1131.75 is a good spot to look at for the neckline. The measured move would be about 129 points over 1131.75 to 1260.75 new highs on the year. The NQ has 1900.75 7/27 highs, 1919.25 61.8% which is also a good spot for the neckline on the inverted head and shoulders. The NQ 221.25 measured move over 1919.25 to 2140.50 for the move. Those inverted head and shoulders have been in the making since early June so that would likely take months to develop. That neckline must first open that door for the patterns to trigger.
Economic data for the week (underlined means more likely to be a mkt mover): Tuesday 8:30 Core PCE Price Index, 8:30 Personal Spending, 8:30 Personal Income, 10:00 Pending Home Sales, 10:00 Factory Orders, Vehicle sales all day. Wednesday 7:30 Challenger Job Cuts, 8:15 ADP Non-Farm Employment Change, 10:00 ISM Non Manufacturing PMI, 10:30 Crude Oil Inventories. Thursday 8:30 Unemployment Claims, 10:30 Natural Gas Storage. Friday 8:30 Non Farm Employment Change, 8:30 Unemployment Rate, 8:30 Average Hourly Earnings, 3:00 Consumer Credit.
Some earnings for the week (keep in mind companies can change last minute: Tuesday pre market ADM, COH, DHI, DUK, MRO, MMC, MA, MGM, NYX, OSG, PFE, PG, THC, YRCW and after the bell APC, BBOX, CRA, ERTS, JCOM, NATL, PCLN, TRLG, UTI, WFMI, WMS, XL. Wednesday pre market AGU, CAM, LSE, DVN, GRMN, ICE, PHM, Q, and after the bell NDN, ALL, ATML, CECO, IPI, MUR, ONNN, PACR, PRU, SINA, RIG. Thursday pre market ATPG, BZH, BCRX, CAH, CBOE, CI, FTO, LIZ, ZEUS, OMG, OCR, and after the bell NILE, CF, CROX, EOG, HANS, MCHP. Friday pre market AES, AIG, DYN, and nothing after the bell.
ES (S&P 500 e-mini) Tuesday’s pivot 1118.75., weekly pivot 1100.75. Intraday support: 1119, 1115.50, 1109, 1104.25, 1099.50-1098.25 gap fill. Resistance: 1124.50-1126.75, 1135.50, 1138.50, 1149.25
