The FX Specialist view – So far in 2010 the bears in EUR/CHF have been the clear dominant force. Any support found has proved fleeting. Recently a temporary halt in downtrend was seen, so it is appropriate to take stock of the technical position.
- WEEKLY CHART:
The second of two bear channel base projections was recently tested – and so far it has provided good support.
But there is little in the current chart structure that suggests bear fatigue… - DAILY CHART:
With a temporary low established we have tentatively drawn in a couple of s/term retracement levels:
– note how 23.6% has provided s/term resistance, the market currently trying to break higher. Success would be a small positive sign.
Besides the intervening 1.3731 09-Jun low, note higher resistance around the 1.4000 area – former May lows and 61.8%. In fact, with the current 1.3070 low, this looks most key, as there are other, longer term, Fibo retracements (not shown) that fall close to this area too. A recovery through this latter would look bullish.
One point of technical interest – note that the 1.3070 low was an approximate 2.618 swing target off prior 1.3997/1.4587 May rally.
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