Monday left the day slightly green on mixed volume, the NYSE was lighter and the Nasdaq a little heavier than Friday’s volume. Futures were also mixed with the ES coming in lower and the NQ and TF slightly heavier. The VIX closed just over the 200dma (23.45) at 24.43 and the TRIN at .70 bullish on the day. Gold closed down $10.80 to $1199 and oil down $1.14 to $74.95 a barrel.
The day ended with a narrow range in a spinning top slightly higher than yesterday. Spinning tops leave indecision for the market and the indexes are still sitting under key resistance. The Dow has 10242.20, SPX 1090.71, NDX 1837.32, and the COMPX 2242.26 for 38.2% resistance overhead. In addition to the 38.2% resistance the indexes are also nearing the 50dma and 200dma. Remember the 50dma is still below the 200dma, but the longer the market stays in a narrow range the sooner those two converge over us.
Futures did not get low enough for the weekly pivots to test. The daily did test on the ES and TF, just one tick off on the NQ. The earnings kick off after the bell left Alcoa (AA) and Novellus (NVLS) trading higher on good news. That sets a nice tone and maybe the catalyst the market needs over the next week to advance. We could still see a sell the news on this market too. Usually the initial move is positive and fades to find support on these early earnings. Economic data picks up into Tuesday to add additional volatility.
With the VIX on the 200dma support we can look for a bounce there. That leaves the indexes to move counter (downside) to see some correction. That could be the fade off the earnings news and then we’ll retrace some of last weeks gains. It will be important for the ES to hold over 1062.75-1059 support. The NQ 1795.5 and 1786.25 key supports. A break over Monday’s highs could be a gap and go scenario for us, so don’t assume we fade. We could see another narrow range day to get onto other earnings after the bell on Tuesday. INTC is key on Tuesday after the bell.
Economic data for the week (underlined means more likely to be a mkt mover): Tuesday 8:30 Trade Balance, 10:00 IBD/TIPP Economic Optimism, 2:00 Federal Budget Balance. Wednesday 8:30 Core Retail Sales, 8:30 Retail Sales, 8:30 Import Prices, 10:00 Business Inventories, 10:30 Crude Oil Inventories, 2:00 FOMC Meeting Minutes. Thursday 8:30 PPI, 8:30 Unemployment Claims, 8:30 Core PPI, 8:30 Empire State Manufacturing Index, 9:15 Industrial Production m/m, 10:00 Fed Chairman Nomination vote, 10:00 Philly Fed Manufacturing Index, 10:30 Natural Gas Storage, Tentative Treasury Currency Report. Friday 8:30 Core CPI, 8:30 CPI, 9:00 TIC Long Term Purchase, 9:55 Prelim UoM Consumer Sentiment, 9:55 Prelim UoM Inflation Expectations.
Some earnings for the week (keep in mind companies can change last minute: Tuesday pre market FAST, INFY and after the bell ADTN, INTC, YUM. Wednesday pre market ASML, TXI and after the bell LSTR, MAR. Thursday pre market SCHW, FCS, JPM, MTG, NVS, PPG and after the bell AMD, GOOG, JBHT, PLCM, NCTY. Friday pre market BAC, C, GE, MAT, and nothing after the bell.
