Based on prices as of the close on Friday, July 9, 2010.
5-Year Outperformance by the
Top 10 Exchange Traded Funds
Weekly Rankings of Major Trend Relative Strength
My weekly Top 10 ETFs ranked by the Major Trend Relative Strength outperformed the S&P 500 by 99 percentage points since August, 2004, in simulation. Click here for a graph of simulated performance.
To arrive at my Top 10 ETF picks, I first calculate a six-month rate of change (approximately) of price. Next, I add in filters to dampen random noise. I rank all the ETFs in my universe from highest rate of change to lowest rate of change. Finally, I pick the highest 10 ETFs each week. These Top 10 are the best performing ETFs, the ones with the best major trend momentum.
Please note that this is a high-volatility strategy: the stocks that go up the most when the stock market is in a Bullish trend often go down the most during market corrections to the downside.
Changes to this research study as of 3/12/10: In an effort to improve this study, I have deleted short and leveraged ETFs, because they have delivered unfavorable “tracking error” in simulated real-time performance. In other words, they have failed to accurately mirror the performance of the indexes they are intended to track, over periods measured in multiple weeks and months. Therefore, I have concluded that they appear to be unsuitable for holding periods measured in weeks, making them incompatible with the design of this research study.
In addition, I have deleted coverage of relatively inactive ETFs that trade fewer than 90,000 shares a day. And I have added a few active foreign and bond ETFs in order to broaden diversification.
Please note that this Top 10 list is a research study and is not investment advice. Your use of this site means that you have read, understood, and accepted my Disclaimer.
Weekly Rank, Name, Symbol
99 Indonesia MV, IDX
99 Thailand MSCI iS, THD
98 Chile MSCI iS, ECH
97 Turkey MSCI iS, TUR
96 India Earnings WTree, EPI
96 Malaysia Index, EWM
95 India PS, PIN
94 Gold Shares S.T., GLD
94 Singapore Index, EWS
93 Realty Cohen & Steers, ICF
. . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . .
Based on prices as of the close on Friday, July 9, 2010.
Exchange Traded Funds
Weekly Rankings of Major Trend Relative Strength
Each week, at the end of the week, I rank 138 Exchange Traded Funds (ETFs), based on my updated version of the Screening Method for Analysis of Relative Strength. For details on this method, see my book, pages 604-609. Below, I ranked 138 ETFs as of the posting date, above.
Research studies suggest that ETFs ranked in the top decile (highest tenth) of the list (with a rank of 90 and higher) may have a greater probability of outperforming the market in the months ahead.
Interpretation:
100 to 90, Buy
89 to 70, Hold
69 to 50, Neutral, Market Perform
49 to 30, Avoid
29 to 0, Sell
Please note that this screen is not investment advice. Your use of this site means that you have read, understood, and accepted my Disclaimer.
Weekly Rank, Name, Symbol
99 Indonesia MV, IDX
99 Thailand MSCI iS, THD
98 Chile MSCI iS, ECH
97 Turkey MSCI iS, TUR
96 India Earnings WTree, EPI
96 Malaysia Index, EWM
95 India PS, PIN
94 Gold Shares S.T., GLD
94 Singapore Index, EWS
93 Realty Cohen & Steers, ICF
92 Silver Trust iS, SLV
91 Sweden Index, EWD
91 REIT Wilshire, RWR
90 REIT VIPERs, VNQ
89 Real Estate US DJ, IYR
89 Emerging VIPERs, VWO
88 Mexico Index, EWW
87 Bond, 20+ Years Treasury, TLT
86 South Korea Index, EWY
86 Preferred Stock iS, PFF
85 South Africa Index, EZA
84 Bond EmrgMkt JPM iS, EMB
84 Emerging Markets, EEM
83 Financial Preferred, PGF
82 Latin Am 40, ILF
81 Growth BARRA Small Cap 600, IJT
81 Growth MidCap 400 B, IJK
80 Bond, 10 Year Treasury, IEF
79 Bond, Corp, LQD
79 Value MidCap Russell, IWS
78 Semiconductor SPDR, XSD
77 Dividend High Yield Equity PS, PEY
76 MidCap Russell, IWR
76 MidCap S&P 400 SPDRs, MDY
75 Growth SmallCap VIPERs, VBK
74 Dividend SPDR, SDY
74 MidCap S&P 400 iS, IJH
73 Bond, Aggregate, AGG
72 LargeCap Blend S&P=Weight R, RSP
71 Canada Index, EWC
71 Emerging 50 BLDRS, ADRE
70 Consumer Discretionary SPDR, XLY
69 Small Cap VIPERs, VB
69 Transportation Av DJ, IYT
68 Brazil Index, EWZ
67 Growth MidCap Russell, IWP
66 Growth LargeCap NASDAQ 100, QQQQ
66 Semiconductor iS GS, IGW
65 Taiwan Index, EWT
64 Bond, High-Yield Junk, JNK
64 Hong Kong Index, EWH
63 SmallCap S&P 600, IJR
62 Bond, High-Yield Corporate, HYG
61 Value SmallCap VIPERS, VBR
61 Dividend DJ Select, DVY
60 Value MidCap S&P 400 B, IJJ
59 Growth SmallCap R 2000, IWO
59 China 25 iS, FXI
58 China LargeCap Growth G D H USX PS, PGJ
57 Bond, TIPS, TIP
56 Industrial SPDR, XLI
56 Technology DJ US, IYW
55 Utilities VIPERs, VPU
54 Consumer Staples SPDR, XLP
54 Bond Muni ATM-Free S&P iS, MUB
53 Info Tech VIPERs, VGT
52 Basic Materials DJ US, IYM
51 DIAMONDS (DJIA), DIA
51 SmallCap Russell 2000, IWM
50 Telecom DJ US, IYZ
49 Dividend International, PID
49 Utilities SPDR, XLU
48 Switzerland Index, EWL
47 Bond, 1-3 Year Treasury, SHY
46 Technology SPDR, XLK
46 Value SmallCap S&P 600 B, IJS
45 Russia MV, RSX
44 Small Cap EAFE MSCI iS, SCZ
44 Bond Treasury Short-Term iS, SHV
43 Microcap Russell, IWC
42 Dividend Appreciation Vipers, VIG
41 Value SmallCap Russell 2000, IWN
41 Value LargeCap Dynamic PS, PWV
40 Growth VIPERs, VUG
39 Growth S&P 500/BARRA, IVW
39 Blend Total Market VIPERs, VTI
38 Growth 1000 Russell, IWF
37 LargeCap Blend Russell 3000, IWV
36 Metals & Mining SPDR, XME
36 LargeCap 1000 R, IWB
35 Pacific ex-Japan, EPP
34 Bond Ex-US Treas, BWX
34 S&P 500 SPDRs LargeCap Blend, SPY
33 S&P 500 iS LargeCap Blend, IVV
32 LargeCap VIPERs, VV
31 Value 1000 Russell, IWD
31 Financials VIPERs, VFH
30 Value VIPERs, VTV
29 Financial DJ US, IYF
29 Value S&P 500 B, IVE
28 Pacific VIPERs, VPL
27 Networking, IGN
26 Natural Resource iS GS, IGE
26 Netherlands Index, EWN
25 Financial SPDR, XLF
24 Value SmallCap S&P 600, RZV
24 Growth EAFE MSCI, EFG
23 LargeCap Blend S&P 100, OEF
22 Global ex US ACWI iS, ACWX
21 Health Care SPDR, XLV
21 Materials SPDR, XLB
20 Agriculture DB PS, DBA
19 Japan Index, EWJ
19 Biotech SPDR, XBI
18 Australia Index, EWA
17 European VIPERs, VGK
16 Financial Services DJ, IYG
16 EAFE Index, EFA
15 Germany Index, EWG
14 Belgium Index, EWK
14 Water Resources, PHO
13 United Kingdom Index, EWU
12 Energy VIPERs, VDE
11 Energy SPDR, XLE
11 Global 100, IOO
10 Europe 350 S&P Index, IEV
9 Homebuilders SPDR, XHB
9 Value EAFE MSCI, EFV
8 Commodity Tracking, DBC
7 Energy DJ, IYE
6 Energy Global, IXC
6 EMU Europe Index, EZU
5 France Index, EWQ
4 Capital Markets KWB ST, KCE
4 Spain Index, EWP
3 WilderHill Clean Energy PS, PBW
2 Oil, Crude, U.S. Oil Fund, USO
1 Italy Index, EWI
1 Austria Index, EWO
