This morning, I was reading an article about the promise of technology in Forbes online. The gist of the article is that “futurists” promising flying cars is one version of technological progress, but the parameters that guide technological discussions in this arena are not the same as the ones that define technological progress in IT (Information Technology). How right the author is in this regard. How right he is to make the distinction between the “pie-in-the-sky” discussions of technology and the reality of technology, and how right he is to frame his point in the following manner.
To do this, we have to work on controlling expectations. We need to outline exactly what a new system is capable of doing and, perhaps more importantly, what it won’t be capable of doing.
One could just as easily be discussing trading or investing money. So much of what we need to do to stay in the game is control our expectations. The inherent ups and downs of working in the trading/investing world require that we temper our expectations. If we don’t, an emotional, bumpy road is the road we travel, and that ride is simply not fun, nor is it profitable.
We also have to be realistic about “what a new system is capable of doing.” In the trading world, this could mean an actual trading system or it could mean a trading strategy. Regardless, however you define the word “system,” the analogy to assessing technological progress works. Yes, in actuality, flying cars work. In fact, I just saw one the other day. It is an actual car that has folding wings, and it can both travel on the road and in the air for short distances. Theoretically, one could envision all if us going from place to place on the road and in the air. In reality, though, how would this work, given the parameters of our current road system. Could we just fly over the red light, for example?
Perhaps the most important point in the quote above, and in the article itself, is the notion that we need to understand what a system will not do, as well as what it will do. Much of the hype out there surrounding the “systems” that promise you incredible returns centers on the theory of what that system will do for you, but few, if any, explicitly tell you what it will not do – your homework. You see, no matter how good the system, traders can never escape the reality that doing your homework (understanding markets, market behavior, economics, and the big picture) is a necessary aspect of successfully doing your job.
So, the author of the article makes a good point, and that is — in the end, IT needs to deliver because so much of our global business efforts depend on reliably transferring information, and we constantly have to “upgrade” that technology to remain competitive. This means that IT producers cannot afford to sell pie-in-the-sky technology simply because no one will buy it.
Think about it …
Trade in the day; invest in your life …
