Based on prices as of the close on Friday, July 2, 2010.
5-Year Outperformance by the
Top 10 Exchange Traded Funds
Weekly Rankings of Major Trend Relative Strength
My weekly Top 10 ETFs ranked by the Major Trend Relative Strength outperformed the S&P 500 by 99 percentage points since August, 2004, in simulation. Click here for a graph of simulated performance.
To arrive at my Top 10 ETF picks, I first calculate a six-month rate of change (approximately) of price. Next, I add in filters to dampen random noise. I rank all the ETFs in my universe from highest rate of change to lowest rate of change. Finally, I pick the highest 10 ETFs each week. These Top 10 are the best performing ETFs, the ones with the best major trend momentum.
Please note that this is a high-volatility strategy: the stocks that go up the most when the stock market is in a Bullish trend often go down the most during market corrections to the downside.
Changes to this research study as of 3/12/10: In an effort to improve this study, I have deleted short and leveraged ETFs, because they have delivered unfavorable “tracking error” in simulated real-time performance. In other words, they have failed to accurately mirror the performance of the indexes they are intended to track, over periods measured in multiple weeks and months. Therefore, I have concluded that they appear to be unsuitable for holding periods measured in weeks, making them incompatible with the design of this research study.
In addition, I have deleted coverage of relatively inactive ETFs that trade fewer than 90,000 shares a day. And I have added a few active foreign and bond ETFs in order to broaden diversification.
Please note that this Top 10 list is a research study and is not investment advice. Your use of this site means that you have read, understood, and accepted my Disclaimer.
Weekly Rank, Name, Symbol
99 Indonesia MV, IDX
99 Thailand MSCI iS, THD
98 Chile MSCI iS, ECH
97 Gold Shares S.T., GLD
96 India Earnings WTree, EPI
96 Malaysia Index, EWM
95 India PS, PIN
94 Turkey MSCI iS, TUR
94 Bond, 20+ Years Treasury, TLT
93 Silver Trust iS, SLV
. . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . .
Based on prices as of the close on Friday, July 2, 2010.
Exchange Traded Funds
Weekly Rankings of Major Trend Relative Strength
Each week, at the end of the week, I rank 138 Exchange Traded Funds (ETFs), based on my updated version of the Screening Method for Analysis of Relative Strength. For details on this method, see my book, pages 604-609. Below, I ranked 138 ETFs as of the posting date, above.
Research studies suggest that ETFs ranked in the top decile (highest tenth) of the list (with a rank of 90 and higher) may have a greater probability of outperforming the market in the months ahead.
Interpretation:
100 to 90, Buy
89 to 70, Hold
69 to 50, Neutral, Market Perform
49 to 30, Avoid
29 to 0, Sell
Please note that this screen is not investment advice. Your use of this site means that you have read, understood, and accepted my Disclaimer.
Weekly Rank, Name, Symbol
99 Indonesia MV, IDX
99 Thailand MSCI iS, THD
98 Chile MSCI iS, ECH
97 Gold Shares S.T., GLD
96 India Earnings WTree, EPI
96 Malaysia Index, EWM
95 India PS, PIN
94 Turkey MSCI iS, TUR
94 Bond, 20+ Years Treasury, TLT
93 Silver Trust iS, SLV
92 Singapore Index, EWS
91 Bond, 10 Year Treasury, IEF
91 Bond, Corp, LQD
90 Bond EmrgMkt JPM iS, EMB
89 Preferred Stock iS, PFF
89 Bond, Aggregate, AGG
88 Bond, TIPS, TIP
87 Financial Preferred, PGF
86 Realty Cohen & Steers, ICF
86 REIT VIPERs, VNQ
85 REIT Wilshire, RWR
84 Bond Muni ATM-Free S&P iS, MUB
84 Real Estate US DJ, IYR
83 Bond, 1-3 Year Treasury, SHY
82 Mexico Index, EWW
81 Bond, High-Yield Junk, JNK
81 Bond Treasury Short-Term iS, SHV
80 Emerging VIPERs, VWO
79 Bond, High-Yield Corporate, HYG
79 Growth BARRA Small Cap 600, IJT
78 South Africa Index, EZA
77 Bond Ex-US Treas, BWX
76 Hong Kong Index, EWH
76 Sweden Index, EWD
75 Growth MidCap 400 B, IJK
74 Emerging Markets, EEM
74 Dividend High Yield Equity PS, PEY
73 South Korea Index, EWY
72 China LargeCap Growth G D H USX PS, PGJ
71 Dividend SPDR, SDY
71 Consumer Discretionary SPDR, XLY
70 China 25 iS, FXI
69 Latin Am 40, ILF
69 Growth SmallCap VIPERs, VBK
68 MidCap S&P 400 SPDRs, MDY
67 MidCap S&P 400 iS, IJH
66 Consumer Staples SPDR, XLP
66 Growth LargeCap NASDAQ 100, QQQQ
65 Growth MidCap Russell, IWP
64 MidCap Russell, IWR
64 SmallCap S&P 600, IJR
63 Emerging 50 BLDRS, ADRE
62 Value MidCap Russell, IWS
61 Small Cap VIPERs, VB
61 LargeCap Blend S&P=Weight R, RSP
60 Brazil Index, EWZ
59 Growth SmallCap R 2000, IWO
59 Telecom DJ US, IYZ
58 Semiconductor SPDR, XSD
57 Dividend DJ Select, DVY
56 Value SmallCap VIPERS, VBR
56 Transportation Av DJ, IYT
55 Value MidCap S&P 400 B, IJJ
54 Canada Index, EWC
54 Taiwan Index, EWT
53 Semiconductor iS GS, IGW
52 Microcap Russell, IWC
51 Technology DJ US, IYW
51 SmallCap Russell 2000, IWM
50 Info Tech VIPERs, VGT
49 Agriculture DB PS, DBA
49 DIAMONDS (DJIA), DIA
48 Switzerland Index, EWL
47 Dividend International, PID
46 Utilities VIPERs, VPU
46 Industrial SPDR, XLI
45 Value SmallCap S&P 600 B, IJS
44 Small Cap EAFE MSCI iS, SCZ
44 Dividend Appreciation Vipers, VIG
43 Value LargeCap Dynamic PS, PWV
42 Russia MV, RSX
41 Utilities SPDR, XLU
41 Technology SPDR, XLK
40 Value SmallCap Russell 2000, IWN
39 Growth VIPERs, VUG
39 Growth 1000 Russell, IWF
38 Growth S&P 500/BARRA, IVW
37 Pacific VIPERs, VPL
36 Health Care SPDR, XLV
36 Blend Total Market VIPERs, VTI
35 LargeCap Blend Russell 3000, IWV
34 LargeCap VIPERs, VV
34 LargeCap 1000 R, IWB
33 S&P 500 iS LargeCap Blend, IVV
32 S&P 500 SPDRs LargeCap Blend, SPY
31 Japan Index, EWJ
31 Value 1000 Russell, IWD
30 Value VIPERs, VTV
29 Value S&P 500 B, IVE
29 Biotech SPDR, XBI
28 Pacific ex-Japan, EPP
27 LargeCap Blend S&P 100, OEF
26 Basic Materials DJ US, IYM
26 Growth EAFE MSCI, EFG
25 Networking, IGN
24 Financials VIPERs, VFH
24 Value SmallCap S&P 600, RZV
23 Natural Resource iS GS, IGE
22 Financial DJ US, IYF
21 Global ex US ACWI iS, ACWX
21 Netherlands Index, EWN
20 Financial SPDR, XLF
19 Germany Index, EWG
19 Water Resources, PHO
18 Commodity Tracking, DBC
17 Metals & Mining SPDR, XME
16 EAFE Index, EFA
16 Materials SPDR, XLB
15 United Kingdom Index, EWU
14 Belgium Index, EWK
14 European VIPERs, VGK
13 Global 100, IOO
12 Australia Index, EWA
11 Energy VIPERs, VDE
11 Energy SPDR, XLE
10 Homebuilders SPDR, XHB
9 Financial Services DJ, IYG
9 Energy DJ, IYE
8 Europe 350 S&P Index, IEV
7 Value EAFE MSCI, EFV
6 Energy Global, IXC
6 Capital Markets KWB ST, KCE
5 EMU Europe Index, EZU
4 France Index, EWQ
4 Oil, Crude, U.S. Oil Fund, USO
3 WilderHill Clean Energy PS, PBW
2 Austria Index, EWO
1 Italy Index, EWI
1 Spain Index, EWP
